What are our chances for 2024?

[Take_a_Screamer]

Interesting, great analysis...

Video: Analysing Collingwood for AFL 2024
Jesse takes a look at the Collingwood Magpies, predicting their best 22 and overall expectations for AFL 2024.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1Qbg4GY8og

[LaurieHolden]

The season runs from 7 March to 28 September, comprising a 23-match home-and-away season over 25 weeks.

Since 1994, in the first week of finals the games are:
1st v 4th; 2nd v 3rd.

Since the expanded competition to 18 sides in 2012, 10 of the 11 flags (91%) have been won from sides finishing in the top 3:
1st 2013, 2022, 2023, 2021
2nd 2014, 2018
3rd 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2020
4th
5th
6th
7th 2016
8th

In the AFL era, our 3 flags were achieved when we finished 2nd, 1st and 1st on the ladder.
Of the 34 flags since 1990, 29 (85%) have gone to those sides finishing in the top 3:
*12 to 1st.
*11 have gone to 2nd.
*6 to 3rd.

Safe to say, finish top 3 and get a home final, we're Prelim bound. Finish outside the 4 would suggest some list management issues.

I still view our final 4 aspirations will pivot around our Captain, and the number of games we can get out of him.
*If he plays 20+ h&a games 100% we finish top 4;
*Anything under 20 h&a games, I think this will drop to a 50% chance to remain in the top 4;
*Anything under 15 h&a games, given how tight the positions from 6-10 will be, and compromised by two 'experienced' bookends in McStay and Moore absent for long periods, we're probably only a 50% chance to remain in top 8.

I honestly believe with the competition for the 4, let alone the 8, it'll be that significant either way.

So, it's top 4 or bust. Even the juggernaut of our 2022 season didn't allow the momentum to continue from 4th, up against an away final. If we finished top 3, who knows.

That means being in the mix at the business end of the season with Brisbane and Carlton, who have their own backline nuclei in Harris Andrews and Jacob Weitering. I think these teams' fortunes will also pivot what type of season these players deliver with respect to injury and form.
Brisbane with both Ashcroft boys in the mix will be hard to hold out from top spot. With a full list, it's hard to see them losing a game at home.
I have Western Bulldogs as the bolter from outside the 8 into the top 4 in 2024. They're as structurally sound as any side in the competition. Above the shoulders, well that's another matter.
IF another interstate team finishes top 3, then the equation gets harder.

As when Leppitsch brought in his 3x Premiership medals to the boys and said if they liked this feeling, then keep going, I look forward to how Fly & co keep this group focussed and continue to improve.

[Magpietothemax]

^ I agree that the ability of Darcy Moore to stay fit will be critical. His ability to play through 2023 so consistently was definitely hugely important in our Premiership victory.
The loss of McStay is a great blow, but at least now it is a known factor. So we can prepare accodingly. The preseason will be critical: time for Ash Johnson to step in as the second tall forward to weave into our f50 with Checkers, Bobby, Lachie Schultz, Jamie, Beau.
Or time for another tall on our list, such as Will Kelly, to prove his credentials.
My main concern is: can Sidey and Pendles come close to what they did this year? Both were astonishing in this finals series. We wouldn't have won the flag without them. Are they up for it one more time?

[warburton lad]

Good morning Mr Laurie Holden and Mr Magpietothemax.

The points that you each make are very solid, logical and provide great food for thought.

Darcy Moore is very clearly our most important structural element in 2024- if he goes down, it will be incredibly tough to cover the void.

The motivation is intrinsic to every player on the list and the people around the Club. Almost impossible to predict, but safe to say that each man would consider themself to be at least a reasonable chance to be a Premiership player again in 2024.

As far as the older players go, I cannot imagine that their Premiership hunger will be dulled by winning in 2023- it is not as if (with the exception of Pendlebury and Sidebottom) they are multiple flag winners.

And, certainly, Bolton, Skipworth, Fraser, Leppitsch and McRae will be hungry for even more success- who would not want to get around a potentially fruitful period in Magpie history??

Taylor Adams and McStay will be missed, Ginnivan too, but I expect further growth from the likes of McInnes, Johnson, Macrae, Steene, Carmichael, Begg, Dean, Noble, Allen; Jath and De Mattea will also add some vim and verve to the club...

It will be a very tough season, but our lads have shown a propensity for the fight and will almost certainly give a strong account of themselves in 2024...

Floreat Pica

[K]

Lotta Hun journos tip a...

Collingwood Carlton GF.

Please, no... The stress would kill me!!

But Pie-supporting Jay Clark tips Carlton to beat Brissy in the GF!

[Ronnie McKeowns boots]

We can say that, at the moment, Pies are as good a chance as any.

A contender will step out of the pack though, happens every year, it was us this year.

My money is on the Blues...but at the risk of getting shouted down, they seem very mentally weak, as a team and Club.

Lions should be hungry

Dees need a new coach before they challenge again methinks.

Who else? GWS I suppose

[Piethagoras' Theorem]

^ GWS concern me, more than most. Brissy also, still in the window and can't see them being any less difficult.

[Jezza]

^ Agree. I think the Giants and Lions are bigger threats for the flag than Carlton.

[WhyPhilWhy?]

If we don't win it, then I hope someone beats Carlton...

[mattdally]

[think better]

[RudeBoy]

As WL noted, Darcy Moore is structurally the lynchpin to our side. He is probably the only player whom is irreplaceable. Up forward, McStay's absence will be a challenge for us, but not insurmountable. Schultz will add serious bite and pressure up forward and I expect Johnson and McInnis to step up next year. Then there's the chance that Alex Conden will give up on his NBL dream and become a Pies player mid season. He would immediately become our full forward and make us virtually unbeatable for the flag. That's obviously a big 'if', but one which I'm hoping for.

Of course, other KPPs like Steene or Begg may surprise with their improvement. Also, our midfield depth should be better next year with the likes of MaCrae, Allen, and DeMatia pressing for senior spots.

All in all, there's no reason for us to be anything but positive about our chances of back to back flags. Bring it on I say. Go Pies.

[23 YIPPEE!!!]

Pies to go back to back.
Just can not see another 2010 and 2011 type of thing happening again.
2024 flag.

We have done it this year but alot more improvement to come in 2024.
kind of in the wheel house for another flag.

Other then that i see both GWS and lions been solid.
can not see blues making it a prelim to be honest.
Would not surprise me that Crows and Swans become the bolters in 2024.

But in 2024 Pies back to back is my tip

[Mossi]

[Take_a_Screamer]