How close are we to challenging?

[AN_Inkling]

A lot of the angst around us signing ancients like Wells (32), Dal Santo (33) and Mayne (28), seems to stem from a belief that we are nowhere near close to challenging for a flag. Also on the, I think, mistaken belief that we'd actually want to sign all of them rather than just one or two (Cloke and Swan replacements), and that we may not also be looking at younger talent. Well, looking at the finals this year, I don't quite share the view that we're miles off.

So how far are we from competing?

This season has been a weak one at the top. Which is why we see teams like the Dogs and Giants looking like genuine contenders, when in previous years they'd have been brushed aside. Next year I think we're looking at the current young contenders with natural improvement and the older ones probably slipping further away.

Personally, I see no huge gulf between us and the 2016 Giants or Dogs. The Swans and the Crows in 2016 are a different matter, but I don't think it's unbridgeable even in the short term. These teams will of course improve and we will need to do the same.

Midfield
I feel that our midfield is good enough to match any team. Banking on improvement in the youngsters and a fit 2017, I have no concerns about this line. There's an excellent mix of grunt, class, pace and run. In terms of ruck, we have the best young'un in the comp in Grundy. Add some experienced backup and we're good to go.

Defense
Overall this line is well stocked. We have plenty of half back flankers and more than enough talent. Keep our best defensive line on the park for long enough and it's gonna do great. The one concern is a genuine full back capable of marking the beasts. I'm very worried we're looking to let Brown go. If we do, we need a replacement or for Frost or Keeffe to really step up. Reid is no longer very good one on one and Frost so far has not been either. If we lose Brown and don't replace him we need to become an excellent team defensive unit like the Dogs or Swans, or we're going to be hurt by big forwards.

Forward
Our weakest line for mine. I don't think we yet have a single quality tall forward and feel it was a mistake to scapegoat and finally ship off Cloke. Moore will be quality but probably not yet in 2017. I don't think there's much or any chance of us improving our tall forward stocks over the off-season. The only hope is that Keeffe comes in and plays better than we'd ever expect or that Cox improves dramatically. That's probably not realistic, so we instead will need to look for a more mobile forward line and a rather different playing style. We know this can work, because the Hawks have been pretty good with even less key forwards than us.

What we do need though is a couple of mediums that will complement our smalls in Fas and Elliott. We've been looking. Having drafted Crocker and traded for Howe, we have some options. In my view Crocker's not ready to be a definite first team selection and Howe has been great in defense (Bucks likes him there, saying his form was AA-like at times in 2016) so will likely stay there. So we need some help. Mayne as a roleplayer who is an elite tackler and pressuriser and can also take a grab is a decent enough option. Hopefully we can also add a more offensive type like a WHE or turn Witts/Cloke into a young developing tall, or in the worst case a decent draft pick.

How Far is Not Far?
So, in my view, aside from the forward line we have the talent and ability to compete with the best teams. I certainly have no doubt that we are good enough to match the 2016 versions of the Giants and Dogs. We do need to get our best players on the park for much of the year, and I'm looking in particular at Elliott and Scharenberg, but that's the same for any team. We are also sorely lacking for top-aged players that provide an example for the younger players and offer important onfield leadership. We had less games played by 28+ year olds than any other in 2016 (possibly barring the Suns) and have zero 30+ year old active players on our list. Adding a Wells and a Mayne will go some way to addressing this as our younger veterans continue to mature.

Another twelfth place finish in 2016 was a disappointment, but I don't think we are as far away from contending as it seems. The main challenge will be having a fit and healthy season, do this and I'm sure we'll be pleasantly surprised by our performances. That said, the competition is very even at the moment, more so than I can ever remember, and there will be many teams who missed the 8 that will be expecting a quick rebound (Power especially, but also Suns and even Dockers). This means we can't be complacent and expect natural development to be enough and why I believe it's a smart move to bring in A-grade talent like Wells and a B-grade talent, though very handy role player, in Mayne while we have the cap space to burn.

At the very best we could be contending for a top 4 finish next year. More realistically, 2018 seems like a safer bet, but we shouldn't be waiting. We need to do whatever we can to be as good as we can be in 2017. There's a slight gap at the moment where the cream of the crop isn't creamy as it has been in recent years. With a bit of luck we could be contending earlier than we think, just like the Dogs and Giants this year. To take advantage of that though, we will need more top end experience than we currently have on our list. The Giants and the Dogs would not be contending without their older players.

[Piesnchess]

I want a fast, swift, agile, backman, sweeping outa defence, like what Harry once was.

[Pies4shaw]

Our midfield includes a few plodders, the good players are too small or too slow (taken as a group) and we do little damage on the fast break. There is just a possibility that Wells can assist there (provided he can stay healthy).

Our forward line is a bit of a joke. Fasolo and Moore (and Elliott if he can stay on the park) are capable of playing high quality finals-standard football but I'm not sure who else there is. I like Blair in every way, except in the team. I can't believe we extended White's contract (I'd rather have fielded a "this space for rent" sign for a year or two) and I doubt we have a viable second tall forward to help Moore (Keeffe won't be it - his short stint in Dawes' spot in 2011 was enough to demonstrate that LK is a backman, not a forward). At the moment, though, the forward line is only a bit of a joke - if we put Mayne in it, it will become a complete joke. I will revisit the "Scoring power" thread after the trade season is done but, at the moment, we have two guys who you might reasonably expect to kick two goals a game (Moore and Fasolo) over the season and not much else. It looks like a 6 to 8 goal per game forward-line to me, even allowing for improvement. That might be ok if we had goal-scoring mids but we don't have any who we'd really think might be up to kicking a bag of three or four against good opposition the way Swan, Thomas or Beams did.

The defence will be ok if Ramsay and Langdon come back from their injuries in good form and if Brown and Reid stay healthy - and don't get any slower. There is just some prospect that Keeffe will help the backs, too (though I'm not counting on it, given how long he's missed).

I have question marks over all of the following positions, at the moment - third tall defender (back-pocket ruck, if you like), whatever position it is that Greenwood and Crisp play, CHF (assuming Moore's going to be played out of the goal-square, so they can't crunch him from all sides at this early stage of his career), the two forward-pockets and any interchange players who aren't mids.

So, I suppose I think we're about half-a-dozen players away from being seriously competitive, at the moment. Hopefully some of the talent on the list that didn't play much in 2016 can take up some of the slack but, barring substantial improvement from quite a few players and some better coaching (from the new panel as a whole, I mean), I think the 8 is beyond us next year.

[RudeBoy]

That's a pretty accurate assessment inky, except I reckon you seriously under rate Darcy Moore and very seriously overrate Cloke. Other than that, you are spot on. We should be aiming for a top 4 spot next season and if we have some luck (with injuries) along the way, we are a realistic chance to achieve it.

[qldmagpie67]

Fair points by all posters thus far.
A few things I view differently
I think P4S made a good point we seem to lack goals from our key forwards but like Stui I think Moore can and will step up big time. He's efforts in the last few games he played showed enough to think if he gets a good run of luck with injuries and we can find someone to take some heat off him he is capable of a 40-50 goals season. Add Faz in for 30 Elliott for 25 White for 25 and that's the starting point. Will need goals from our mids and I said in a other thread we need to look at our resources available and use them best. I would play Sidey 65-75% of his game time inside forward 50. He has skill enough to take grabs and kick goals and is decent defensively and reads game well. When he's not there rotate the likes of Varcoe Aish DeGoey through that role. Mayne is a interesting one I love his defensive pressure and he's durable so that's 2 pluses. If he could get a goal a game like his average then his tackling and pressure is worth another goal as well.
That graph that King shows as premiership contender were the sides who score more than 100 points and concede less than 86 win premierships is fairly accurate.
For that reason I would be really chasing a true A grade fullback like Rance (rumours still strong he's not happy at the tigers) they need a ruck so Witts could be part of the deal along with maybe Oxley or Crisp or someone similar and some upgrading of draft picks or a future draft pick.
Add Rance to our backline and all of a sudden it looks a lot stronger and gives us Keefe at CHB and Reid to CHF or FF taking some heat off Moore with White playing as 3rd tall and back up ruck.
For mine we are overstocked with HBF types and some mids so we could trade a few of those to get us into a better position

[HAL]

Where did you hear that?

[MatthewBoydFanClub]

Easy poll for me. Our forward line requires the most work which is one of the reasons we hired Sanderson. Won't be easy. Moore needs a lot of help. White is useful without being a match winner. Fasolo and Elliot are good when they take the field. We need a Leigh Brown type who can crash and bang the opposition backs. Cox is promising but needs to assert himself on the field. Stewart would be a very good pickup.

[mattys123]

Guess what the top 4 remaining teams have in common?

They have the 4 best defenses (least points conceded) in the AFL.

If Brown and/or Frost leave our backline, especially in regards to key defenders we will be weak.

That's the area we have to fix, and also the ball use out of the backline which was terrible the first 12 games this year.

Teams don't win flags without having a strong defensive game plan and talent down back. Hawks knew this so they bought Frawley and Lake over the years to fix their weakness.

[Monco Matt]

Forward line for sure is #1. If we had a better quality line-up down there that was capable of applying pressure and scoring as well then so much pressure is removed from our mids and backs, it would make so much difference to our for and against. We also need Grundy and other talls to start taking marks in half backline packs and on the wings to repel opposition forward thrusts before they take shape, this is #2.

I think a Bruest or Mayne can really help there as they are good tacklers and know where the goals are. A second ruckman to help Grundy who can take pack marks would be useful, can Maric do the job?? Maybe.

[Darkstranger]

Broadbent & Tomlinson, with a splash of WHE will help us propel us back into the eight.

[The Boy Who Cried Wolf]

Subject line is wrong.. can't vote in this

[AN_Inkling]

[stui magpie]

When I look at it, we have all the cattle, it's just a matter of getting them on the park.

Leg speed and precision kicking from the back line would be nice. We have a few who offer one or the other but not both at the elite level.

A genuine small crumbing forward, someone who deals in scraps and turns them into goals. Get the little indigenous kid from the Recruit as a rookie pick.

[Raw Hammer]

[What'sinaname]

Forward line is the concern.

There are IFS around the health of Darcy and Fas, both coming off injuries that can reoccur. Also, Elliot is the big unknown. If everyone can return healthy, then we should be OK, but we are thin up forward.