Form ladder 2013

[David]

I'm not sure if I'm going a week early here, but let's see how it goes.

Considering there was some confusion over this last year, let me make a few things clear:

1) Due to the unevenness of the draw, the official AFL ladder gives us an (at best) incomplete perspective on how teams are actually performing. Earlier on in the season — particularly over the first 10-12 weeks — it's hard to gain anything much from it. Some teams may have played the main wooden spoon contenders; some may not have played any of them. This is why, back in the days of the 16-team comp, people used to say that the ladder is meaningless until round 15 (that would now be about round 17, although the random scheduling of return matches has obviously made this a little more complicated).

2) Personally, I'm not terribly excited by the idea of waiting until round 15 or 17 to discuss which teams are going well and which teams are going terribly. Every single match tells us something about where each club is at. For instance, Carlton and Melbourne both sit on the bottom of the table winless after round 3, and yet one is a favourite for the wooden spoon and one is still considered a good chance to make the finals. Our perception here is derived from who they've played against, how badly they've lost and (a little trickier to measure) how much potential for improvement there is. My aim is simply to crystallise one perception (i.e. mine) in the form of a ladder.

3) Another small reason for doing this is that I think too much emphasis is sometimes given to winning. Brisbane beat the Gold Coast by 2 points on Saturday night, but the game could have gone either way and may well have had it gone another 30 seconds. What does that tell us? Rather than conclude that the Lions are clearly better than the Suns, I'm going to assume that the teams are roughly on par. Thus, winning margins count for a lot on this ladder.

4) This is not a form ladder in the sense of measuring recent form (say, just last week's or last five weeks'). The aim is to map teams' performances over the entire season to date. This was a point that confused many people last season, so let me make this clear: round 1 results remain as relevant as round 15 results. The distinction here is significant and wholly deliberate.

5) Every ladder I come up with merely reflects my subjective interpretation. If you understand the concept and think it's at all worthwhile, I encourage you to post your own ladders and/or disagree with my or others' choice of positioning. Looking back over last season, there were times when I got it right and times when I got it badly wrong. That's all a perfectly valid part of the exercise.

6) If you don't think it's a worthwhile exercise, that's perfectly fine. I don't really see the point of posting in here just to tell people what a terrible idea you think it is, but it's a free country.

Now that that's out of the way, here's my round 3 form ladder:

1. Hawthorn
2. Sydney
3. Geelong
4. Essendon
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. Richmond
8. West Coast

9. North Melbourne
10. Carlton
11. Port Adelaide
12. Adelaide
13. Western Bulldogs
14. Gold Coast
15. Brisbane
16. St. Kilda
17. GWS
18. Melbourne

What do you think? It seems counterintuitive to place Port (undefeated) underneath North and Carlton (both winless), but Port has beaten the two worst teams easily and narrowly beaten a team that I wouldn't consider anywhere near a top 8 contender at this stage. Carlton, on the other hand, has had three narrow losses against possible top 4 contenders (Richmond, Geelong and Collingwood).

Actually, the top 4 is the only thing I'm unsure about at the moment — no team apart from Hawthorn is really asserting itself as an obvious frontrunner.

[Mr Dapper Travis Cloke]

Didn't Geelong beat Hawthorn?

So did the Swans in the GF and they are undefeated this year.

So I have got the Hawks 3rd on the list.

[David]

Yes, but Port are undefeated too, and I don't think anyone's suggesting they're a better side than Hawthorn at the moment.

If anything, I fear that I may have placed the Swans too high — I just struggle to find a compelling case for putting any other team above them.

[Mr Dapper Travis Cloke]

We will find out on Friday night.

But aren't they premiers atm.

With the uneven draw, it is a chook raffle David.

[John Wren]

[David]

^ Yep, I think you're right about Geelong. Probably 2nd at least, if not 1st.

[HAL]

Are we still talking about Can't fault her logic?

[stui magpie]

So, are you using actual statistical measures to compile this or is it just purely PDOOYA?

[David]

A bit of both, I guess. I use this trusty guide:

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/seas/2013.html

And otherwise a lot of speculation.

[John Wren]

^ i think your speculation was a little premature.

[Clifton Hill-Billy]

^^^^ premature speculation? David better give AMI a call.

[yin-YANG]

How could Geelong be easily first when they only just beat kanagroos...? that (close games) was one of your criteria listed David so that should carry some weight... and given that the Hawks lost to the Cats that puts them below Kangas if looking at those 2 games...

Now Sydney thrashed Kangas... so they are clearly a level above Kangas and therefore also Geelong and Hawks... Sydney on that basis should be top!

I think you have clearly carried too much baggage from last year... or maybe not enough!

[MattyD]

what the hell does counterintuitive mean?

sounds like something to do with espionage



Edit: Having said that, your ladder looks about right

[sixpoints]

Essendon's beaten Adelaide in Adelaide & Freo at Freo.
They also gave Melbourne their biggest home defeat in 120 years.
I personally think they are not that good, but being totally objective, that is perhaps the best start to the season of all teams to date.

[Albert Parker]