Form ladder 2013
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Jezza 
2023 PREMIERS!
Joined: 06 Sep 2010
Location: Ponsford End
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David quoted this at the start of this thread, so I think some people should re-read what the 'form ladder' entails from his perspective.
| Quote: | 1) Due to the unevenness of the draw, the official AFL ladder gives us an (at best) incomplete perspective on how teams are actually performing. Earlier on in the season — particularly over the first 10-12 weeks — it's hard to gain anything much from it. Some teams may have played the main wooden spoon contenders; some may not have played any of them. This is why, back in the days of the 16-team comp, people used to say that the ladder is meaningless until round 15 (that would now be about round 17, although the random scheduling of return matches has obviously made this a little more complicated).
2) Personally, I'm not terribly excited by the idea of waiting until round 15 or 17 to discuss which teams are going well and which teams are going terribly. Every single match tells us something about where each club is at. For instance, Carlton and Melbourne both sit on the bottom of the table winless after round 3, and yet one is a favourite for the wooden spoon and one is still considered a good chance to make the finals. Our perception here is derived from who they've played against, how badly they've lost and (a little trickier to measure) how much potential for improvement there is. My aim is simply to crystallise one perception (i.e. mine) in the form of a ladder.
3) Another small reason for doing this is that I think too much emphasis is sometimes given to winning. Brisbane beat the Gold Coast by 2 points on Saturday night, but the game could have gone either way and may well have had it gone another 30 seconds. What does that tell us? Rather than conclude that the Lions are clearly better than the Suns, I'm going to assume that the teams are roughly on par. Thus, winning margins count for a lot on this ladder.
4) This is not a form ladder in the sense of measuring recent form (say, just last week's or last five weeks'). The aim is to map teams' performances over the entire season to date. This was a point that confused many people last season, so let me make this clear: round 1 results remain as relevant as round 15 results. The distinction here is significant and wholly deliberate.
5) Every ladder I come up with merely reflects my subjective interpretation. If you understand the concept and think it's at all worthwhile, I encourage you to post your own ladders and/or disagree with my or others' choice of positioning. Looking back over last season, there were times when I got it right and times when I got it badly wrong. That's all a perfectly valid part of the exercise.
6) If you don't think it's a worthwhile exercise, that's perfectly fine. I don't really see the point of posting in here just to tell people what a terrible idea you think it is, but it's a free country. |
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melliot
Joined: 07 Apr 2006
Location: Bendigo
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My attempt. This isn't necessarily a form ladder for the year to date, but my rankings in terms of the best sides at the moment. (i.e. if 2 teams were to play at a neutral ground, I’d tip in the following ranking)
Round 19 form ladder
1. Hawthorn
2. Sydney
3. Geelong
4. Fremantle
5. Collingwood
6. Richmond
7. Essendon
8. North Melbourne
9. Port Adelaide
10. Carlton
11. Adelaide
12. Brisbane
13. Gold Coast
14. Western Bulldogs
15. West Coast
16. St. Kilda
17. GWS
18. Melbourne
From the weekends results Pies/North/Tiges all increased their ranking IMO. Hawks/Cats Melbourne/Essendon dropped IMO. Pies games against the Swans will really show where we are at. I’m not sure if we were good or Bombers have had the wheels fall off (again). North may be fortunate to be as high as they are and Blues and port unlucky to be so low.
Cats and Hawks don’t look as unbeatable as they did earlier in the year. They look gettable ATM. But they may be under heavy training loads ATM before tapering before the finals.
You also need to realise that North have had a hardish draw this year and Port and Blues an easier draw. Pies have had the hardest draw (going off the recent Age article updating the ranking of the draw), thus get better ranking than Tiges. Plus we beat the Tiges.
North will miss the finals though. |
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Captain_MyCaptain 
Joined: 25 May 2006
Location: home
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Can't fault the Pies form but neither can I justifiably put them in first place.
Form Ladder round 20:
1. Sydney
2. Hawthorn
3. Freo
4. Geelong
5. Collingwood
6. Richmond
7. Port
8. Adelaide
9. North
10. West Coast
11. Essendon
12. Carlton
13. Brisbane
14. Gold Coast
15. Western Bulldogs
16. St. Kilda
17. GWS
18. Melbourne
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David 
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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| Albert Parker wrote: | | David wrote: | | Not more relevant, equally so. |
So now that every team has played each other once, your version of the form ladder, which equally weights each game played across the season is essentially the AFL ladder? |
The modern draw actually dictates that this is never the case. We've already played Carlton, Essendon and Sydney twice, but haven't played West Coast once. Nevertheless, in theory, my ladder should start to more closely resemble the AFL ladder as we get towards round 15 (hence the fact I tend to spend more time on this in the early part of the season).
As an interesting exercise, compare the first ladder I posted in this thread with the corresponding actual AFL ladder at the time (I think it was round 3). Which more closely resembles the current positions?
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Last edited by David on Tue Aug 13, 2013 3:55 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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melliot
Joined: 07 Apr 2006
Location: Bendigo
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^ IMO :
1. Swans and Hawks should be swapped. Hawks are the best side.
2. Cats are better than Freo. Soft fixture may see them as you have them. But Cats just spanked them about a month ago.
3. Bombers too low. They are going very ordinary ATM, but will pick up once the saga finds some closure. Although depends on penalties handed down. So they could keep spiraling. I think you mark Bombers with a *. If their minds were right they are 4-7th ranked team.
4. Crows way to high
5. Maybe WCE too high
6. Doggies may be slightly better than Gold Coast.
Pies potentially on the significant rise. If, (big IF) we knock over Hawks, we'd have to be inside the top 4 over Freo IMO. Knocking of Swans and Hawks off on 6 day breaks is a massive credit and puts us up the rankings.
I'm still happy with my Rd 19 Ladder for results of Rd 20. Blues may be a slider. |
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E
Joined: 05 May 2010
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| Jezza wrote: | David quoted this at the start of this thread, so I think some people should re-read what the 'form ladder' entails from his perspective.
| Quote: | 1) Due to the unevenness of the draw, the official AFL ladder gives us an (at best) incomplete perspective on how teams are actually performing. Earlier on in the season — particularly over the first 10-12 weeks — it's hard to gain anything much from it. Some teams may have played the main wooden spoon contenders; some may not have played any of them. This is why, back in the days of the 16-team comp, people used to say that the ladder is meaningless until round 15 (that would now be about round 17, although the random scheduling of return matches has obviously made this a little more complicated).
2) Personally, I'm not terribly excited by the idea of waiting until round 15 or 17 to discuss which teams are going well and which teams are going terribly. Every single match tells us something about where each club is at. For instance, Carlton and Melbourne both sit on the bottom of the table winless after round 3, and yet one is a favourite for the wooden spoon and one is still considered a good chance to make the finals. Our perception here is derived from who they've played against, how badly they've lost and (a little trickier to measure) how much potential for improvement there is. My aim is simply to crystallise one perception (i.e. mine) in the form of a ladder.
3) Another small reason for doing this is that I think too much emphasis is sometimes given to winning. Brisbane beat the Gold Coast by 2 points on Saturday night, but the game could have gone either way and may well have had it gone another 30 seconds. What does that tell us? Rather than conclude that the Lions are clearly better than the Suns, I'm going to assume that the teams are roughly on par. Thus, winning margins count for a lot on this ladder.
4) This is not a form ladder in the sense of measuring recent form (say, just last week's or last five weeks'). The aim is to map teams' performances over the entire season to date. This was a point that confused many people last season, so let me make this clear: round 1 results remain as relevant as round 15 results. The distinction here is significant and wholly deliberate.
5) Every ladder I come up with merely reflects my subjective interpretation. If you understand the concept and think it's at all worthwhile, I encourage you to post your own ladders and/or disagree with my or others' choice of positioning. Looking back over last season, there were times when I got it right and times when I got it badly wrong. That's all a perfectly valid part of the exercise.
6) If you don't think it's a worthwhile exercise, that's perfectly fine. I don't really see the point of posting in here just to tell people what a terrible idea you think it is, but it's a free country. |
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if this is what he is trying to achieve, why on earth would you then misname it a Form Ladder???? it is not a form ladder. It should be called david's ladder that tries to equalize for vagaries in the draw and for other reasons known only to david that he doesnt like about the concept of winning and losing.
He could even use the acronym The DLTTTEFVITDAFORKOTDTHDLATCOWAL Ladder. Or the Fork Ladder for short.
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Ohhh, the Premiership's a cakewalk ....... |
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Albert Parker
Joined: 13 Dec 2012
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if this is what he is trying to achieve, why on earth would you then misname it a Form Ladder???? it is not a form ladder. It should be called david's ladder that tries to equalize for vagaries in the draw and for other reasons known only to david that he doesnt like about the concept of winning and losing.
He could even use the acronym The DLTTTEFVITDAFORKOTDTHDLATCOWAL Ladder. Or the Fork Ladder for short.[/quote]
Classic  
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One team, one dream - the Pies and this year's premiership |
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Albert Parker
Joined: 13 Dec 2012
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Interesting analysis on AFL Insider tonight about form of teams against the Top 8 and top 4 teams.
Numbers are off the top of my head a bit but
Cats stand out 8 wins against top 8 teams and 1 loss (pies), 4-0 fellow Top 4
Hawks 5-3 (Cats x 2 and Tigers) 2-2 against Top 4 teams
Pies 4-5
Tigers 4-5
Interesting form was
Swans - no wins against other Top 4 teams and only about 2 wins against Top 8 teams
Freo - 2-4or5 (Top  and 0-2 against Top 4
Cats a stand out - yet I feel OK against them partic while Hawkins is lame
Hawks losses were close and wins have typically been pretty strong margins,
Pies and Tigers stacked up pretty well.
Swans and Freo a surprise at how poor their records were. Freo less of a surprise to me than the Swans.
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One team, one dream - the Pies and this year's premiership |
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Captain_MyCaptain
Joined: 25 May 2006
Location: home
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| E wrote: | | Jezza wrote: | David quoted this at the start of this thread, so I think some people should re-read what the 'form ladder' entails from his perspective.
| Quote: | 1) Due to the unevenness of the draw, the official AFL ladder gives us an (at best) incomplete perspective on how teams are actually performing. Earlier on in the season — particularly over the first 10-12 weeks — it's hard to gain anything much from it. Some teams may have played the main wooden spoon contenders; some may not have played any of them. This is why, back in the days of the 16-team comp, people used to say that the ladder is meaningless until round 15 (that would now be about round 17, although the random scheduling of return matches has obviously made this a little more complicated).
2) Personally, I'm not terribly excited by the idea of waiting until round 15 or 17 to discuss which teams are going well and which teams are going terribly. Every single match tells us something about where each club is at. For instance, Carlton and Melbourne both sit on the bottom of the table winless after round 3, and yet one is a favourite for the wooden spoon and one is still considered a good chance to make the finals. Our perception here is derived from who they've played against, how badly they've lost and (a little trickier to measure) how much potential for improvement there is. My aim is simply to crystallise one perception (i.e. mine) in the form of a ladder.
3) Another small reason for doing this is that I think too much emphasis is sometimes given to winning. Brisbane beat the Gold Coast by 2 points on Saturday night, but the game could have gone either way and may well have had it gone another 30 seconds. What does that tell us? Rather than conclude that the Lions are clearly better than the Suns, I'm going to assume that the teams are roughly on par. Thus, winning margins count for a lot on this ladder.
4) This is not a form ladder in the sense of measuring recent form (say, just last week's or last five weeks'). The aim is to map teams' performances over the entire season to date. This was a point that confused many people last season, so let me make this clear: round 1 results remain as relevant as round 15 results. The distinction here is significant and wholly deliberate.
5) Every ladder I come up with merely reflects my subjective interpretation. If you understand the concept and think it's at all worthwhile, I encourage you to post your own ladders and/or disagree with my or others' choice of positioning. Looking back over last season, there were times when I got it right and times when I got it badly wrong. That's all a perfectly valid part of the exercise.
6) If you don't think it's a worthwhile exercise, that's perfectly fine. I don't really see the point of posting in here just to tell people what a terrible idea you think it is, but it's a free country. |
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if this is what he is trying to achieve, why on earth would you then misname it a Form Ladder???? it is not a form ladder. It should be called david's ladder that tries to equalize for vagaries in the draw and for other reasons known only to david that he doesnt like about the concept of winning and losing.
He could even use the acronym The DLTTTEFVITDAFORKOTDTHDLATCOWAL Ladder. Or the Fork Ladder for short. |
Very true. It's just a bit of fun. So call it what you like.
Winning form is great but as we know, one loss and our whole mindset changes. Full marks to Bucks when he said after beating Carlton ''We're going alright'' or words to that effect.
Cheers.
_________________
The window is open my friend! |
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David
I dare you to try
Joined: 27 Jul 2003
Location: Andromeda
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I just couldn't think of a better name! But keep in mind that the word 'form' doesn't necessarily entail 'recent'—under the definition we're using, it just means 'how good are they', essentially. I think that's a fairly legitimate definition even given common usage.
_________________
All watched over by machines of loving grace |
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