The Aussie $ overvalued by this much?

[Skids]

I'd think they're a little off the mark with this prediction.

What ya reckon?

If you are planning an overseas holiday next year or looking to make an expensive purchase in another currency, you may want to sell your Australian dollar's soon. It looks set to drop more than 18% against the US dollar by the end of next year.


That's the bearish forecast offered by Alan Ruskin and George Saravelos, macro strategists at Deutsche Bank, who suggest a number of factors, none less than the prospect of further rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia, will push the Aussie down to just 60 cents by they end of 2017.

The pair believe that recent strength in the Aussie has seen it overshoot fair value based on Deutsche's modelling, leaving it "vulnerable" to correction.

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia ... id=sl5mdhp

[David]

This is good news for our exports, right? Just bad news for people like me who buy stuff from Amazon.

[Pies4shaw]

I'm not sure it's news, either. My advisor has been telling me for about 18 months we'll be trading out of our $A at US 60c.

[What'sinaname]

I'm not sure it's news, either. My advisor has been telling me for about 18 months we'll be trading out of our $A at US 60c.

If the market thought we should be trading at 60c we'd already be there.

[Pies4shaw]

Well, yes. Derr.

[Skids]

What do you think is fair value P4S?


One trigger of slowing activity could come with a possible Labor win in the July elections. The prospect of negative gearing reforms would likely dampen house price inflation and reduce wealth effects on consumption.

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia ... id=sl5mdhp



I'd say maybe a little lower, be surprised to see any less than 68c by xmas.

[Pies4shaw]

I wouldn't hazard a guess, Skids. I don't ask my financial advisors for legal advice and they don't ask me for investment advice. It seems to work better for us that way. Also, I'm a socialist and think that stock and currency trading should be banned (generally, I mean - not specifically when it comes to the advice I get about what to do with my money).

[stui magpie]

I stocked up on some US currency a month ago for my holiday. Got $2k US spending money on a card for about $2800 AUS.

Other than that I don't pay a lot of attention to the rates. An exchange rate of about $1US to $0.70 AUS seems about right for imports and exports.

[think positive]

I put a few thousand on a velocity card a couple of years ago and a bit more a few months ago when I was keeping an eye on the rates. It's interesting and can make a huge difference. 2 hotels I booked through booking, both were around $290 US a night, one translated to $309, the other $360! It's worth checking back. The other night I scored a great deal on a better hotel, the rate was also better, so I cancelled the higher one, and booked the new one. I actually booked the same hotel twice in another town when the dollar was better and canceled the more expensive one! Highly recommend Bookings.com! They have good rates on free cancellation bookings. Although for New York I paid in full because I got 60% off in a flash sale at the hotel I wanted.

[stui magpie]

I just went through Flight Centre.

Told the girl where I wanted to go and when, roughly where I wanted to stay (had hotel preferences in two places) and let her do all the work.

All flights and accommodation paid for up front, don't have to worry about the exchange rate changing.

[think positive]

I just went through Flight Centre.

Told the girl where I wanted to go and when, roughly where I wanted to stay (had hotel preferences in two places) and let her do all the work.

All flights and accommodation paid for up front, don't have to worry about the exchange rate changing.

First time we went to the states, (honeymoon 23 years ago) let a travel agent do it. When theinternetcame along, my BIL who was always ahead of his time when PCs first became a home thing, and is also a travel nut, showed me a few sites for bargains. I've since planned two USA holidays, 2 weeks for 9 of us, and four weeks for 4 of us, and the ones I did myself were cheaper, better, went like clockwork. You can get great deals if you don't mind searching, free breakfast (we had 5 nights across the road from the entrance to Disney in a little hotel, free full Buffet breakfast and supper -dinner by Aussie serving standard! For 9 people, that's a bloody big saving and it was so close we would go home from the park for a rest and to eat, and just go back!) I book cars, shuttles, tickets, everything. With one adult saving a couple of hundred might not be such a big deal, but with three of us over 3 weeks, peak holiday period, including 4th of July weekend in New York, I've saved well over a thousand bucks easily. And that's Victoria Secret/Forever 21 spending money!

The best deal I got was Disney World Florida. We went just before Christmas, busy time, and I really wanted to stay onsite. They have free shuttle buses around the different worlds, so you don't need a car, you get priority gate passes, early entrance, but really, I just wanted to stay in one of the cool themed hotels! And it was awesome. I got a package deal, 6 nights multi park tickets for 5 days, and the hotel room, I waited for a deal that included meals and cheap rates, there is a huge food hall in each hotel with fresh cooking stations, and also in all the worlds, free breakfast, lunch, dinner and snacks! The night I booked I lucked it in with an extra special, upgrade for the four of us for 6 days to order 1 three course meal each day in a restaurant, such as planet holiwood, rainforest cafe etc. for $300, not each, for all of us! All we paid for was alcoholic drinks! The bill was never under $200 so $1200 for $300, and man the steaks at planet Hollywood were bloody amazing! The six days with tickets, accommodation and food cost $2000 for 4 people. And it was six days none of us will ever forget, it really was magical. I'm hoping to take grand kids there one day! (Just so I can go back!)

I book all our holidays myself, yeah it takes a lot of time but I really enjoy it! And it's amazing the things you can find by accident that you would have missed. Such as when I was looking for Noahs Ark rescue, where the BLT are located, I discovered the walking dead is filmed about 40 min away, and the producers have a cafe with a museum under it. Junior doesn't watch it anymore but my eldest and I do, and even junior wants a selfie with the 'don't dead, open inside' doors! Cos all her friends will be so jealous!

I have all the driving maps and instructions printed out, and also on a USB, from the time we land til we drop the car at Newark airport! plus we take a USA Navman with us.

I even print discount vouchers before we get there! Things like IHOP etc!

Have a look at visitacity.com it's a worldwide free thing and it maps out the tourist stuff in most cities so you don't waste time. The one for Washington starts at the White House, and you just walk around all the various memorials and museums, it even takes into account opening hours on the days you will be there! Tells you how long it takes to walk, and you can adjust the times for the things you don't want to stay long at!

Hubby wants me to find him some car auctions (excitement plus!) and I found a speedway with sprint cars like his, racing the night after Washington.

And yes I really am driving through Phillidelphia just so I can run up the rocky steps!


But back to the USA dollar, we bought our mustang from the states, and hubby is looking for another car or maybe a motorbike, so I keep tabs on it. Plus after this trip, we are going to Hawaii in September, (friends wedding) and next year we will do the Alaskan cruise and the train through the Rockies mountains. When it's a good time, I whack a few bucks on my travel card! It's also useful for buying from Amazon and other stores in the US.

All the doubters, don't knock it til you try it! It's an amazing place, and I can do the big Aussie trip when I'm old and grey!

[stui magpie]

Geezus. I get the savings when you have a family of 4 to take but that's way to organised for me.

I started a list of things to do when I'm over there in a couple of weeks but other than air fares an accommodation I've planned nothing.

I'll decide what I want to do each day when I wake up in the morning

[think positive]

Yes well I was promised two months driving around the US last year, so I have a lot to fit into three weeks! And since I only get three weeks, I'm doing allllll the stuff I want to do! And well, what can I say, organisational skills are one of my best attributes!















Yeah ok I'm a control freak!

[stui magpie]

[ronrat]

A falling dollar has a serious impact on my lifestyle. In fact if it comes down the aussie here on an old aged pension may not meet the income requirements. You want more pressure on the rental market and an increase in medicare and Centrelink payments it is the best way to go. The first thing to go from my budget will be the Australian food I buy here like cheese and wine. i can assure you falling rates do not translate to cheaper prices.