UK Election June 8th

[Mugwump]

[David]

Mugwump, is there something you're not telling us?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... headed-old

[Mugwump]

Mugwump, is there something you're not telling us?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... headed-old

Haha, no idea where that came from ! As usual with Boris, the verbal wheel spins and there is no telling where it's going to land, but you can be fairly sure it'll be nowhere near thought.

I think I've explained this before somewhere, but my father used to call me mugwump when I was about three years old - presumably ironically because its original meaning to the Algonquin natives was "great chief". In my pre-literate state, I used to confuse magpies and mugwumps, so for some of my early years I thought I followed the mugwumps. Lately, it just feels like following the mugs, alas.

[stui magpie]

Here's how Corbyn can win:

Just kidding.

Look out

London: Britain's general election is too close to call.

It is very hard to convey just how astonishing this is, just how contrary to every expectation, prediction and received wisdom.

Just a month and a half ago, when Prime Minister Theresa May stood behind her lectern outside 10 Downing Street and solemnly announced "we need a general election and we need one now", the Conservatives polled 24 points ahead of Labour and led in every age group, social class and region. In April, Labour's support in the polls was its worst since 1983.

As soon as the election was called on April 18, the Conservative numbers shot up. Pollsters quibbled over the size of the Tory landslide. While May tried to pretend she'd called the poll because of Brexit, the political calculation was clear.

But in the last week, pollster YouGov has hit May with a double blow. First it did some seat-by-seat calculations and predicted the Conservatives would lose seats, Labour would gain, with a hung parliament the most likely outcome.

http://www.theage.com.au/world/uk-elect ... wiulk.html

Looks like getting messy.

[swoop42]

After Trump it's hard to take these polls to seriously.

[Culprit]

After Trump it's hard to take these polls to seriously.

I would suggest that after Trump, the right wing parties are no longer seen as an option for the "protest vote". Non compulsory voting will see May get first past the post.

[stui magpie]

After Trump it's hard to take these polls to seriously.

I would suggest that after Trump, the right wing parties are no longer seen as an option for the "protest vote". Non compulsory voting will see May get first past the post.

Keep in mind, Trump was probably the least right wing of all the Republican candidates.

[Culprit]

Agree with that. His policies are shitting on all those who blindly voted for him out of protest though. I love Trump. My son was going to move to the US and live with his GF. Instead she arrived last Tuesday and wants to stay here. Mind you I did say to him that if he moved to the US I would most likely see him more than I do now.

[stui magpie]

^

More bloody political refugees.

[Mugwump]

Elections have a way of exposing things that government does not. As each week has gone by, May has looked more and more like someone who is not up to the job. She answers every question with one of three sound bites like a malfunctioning robot crossed with a praying mantis, and it is annoying the hell out of the whole British population.

Corbyn is not up to it either, but we already knew that, and at least he communicates like a human being. And he has of course promised more free stuff to everybody except the top 5% of the population, so the polls have narrowed.

May is still long odds-on to get across the line, but she will be so damaged that it would not surprise me to see a leadership challenge within 12 months. On exposed form, this would be a deserved outcome. Not Prime Minister material, as it turns out.

[stui magpie]

We need a better class of politicians, worldwide.

May v Corbyn
Trump v Clinton
Gillard v Abbott
Krudd v Turnbull
Mugabe v ...............?

[Mugwump]

^ true, but in democracies it's a job where people from everywhere knock spots off you every day, and I doubt many leaders of any calibre can really succeed in such a culture. Still, there are good ones in the mix : Obama, Cameron and Merkel, regardless of whether one likes their policies or not, were up to the job. As Enoch Powell said, all political careers end in failure, but (as he didn't say) some manage to achieve things along the way and look assured while doing it.

The worry is that populations in most democratic nations are now so infantilised and ignorant that they are getting politicians who play to that.

[Tannin]

Oh dear. One impressive-sounding one who sadly achieved a lot less than expected in the end, and two massive farnarkleups in those three. Merkel's fanatic determination to flood Europe with foreign migrants has been truly disastrous, not just in its direct effects, but also because it was far and away the primary cause of the contempt many people feel for politicians today, and the success of the various Trump/Farage/Le Pen types. Massive own goal, and too stupid to learn from her mistake.

And Cameron? Have you given up posting and taken up comedy instead? FMD, Cameron will go down in UK history as unquestionably the worst Prime Minister since Nevil Chamberlin. The whole shambolic Brexit debacle was a direct result of Cameron's stupidity, lack of courage, and lack of energy. Cameron makes Rudd look good.

[Tannin]

The worry is that populations in most democratic nations are now so infantilised and ignorant that they are getting politicians who play to that.

Just so.

[Mugwump]

Oh dear. One impressive-sounding one who sadly achieved a lot less than expected in the end, and two massive farnarkleups in those three. Merkel's fanatic determination to flood Europe with foreign migrants has been truly disastrous, not just in its direct effects, but also because it was far and away the primary cause of the contempt many people feel for politicians today, and the success of the various Trump/Farage/Le Pen types. Massive own goal, and too stupid to learn from her mistake.

And Cameron? Have you given up posting and taken up comedy instead? FMD, Cameron will go down in UK history as unquestionably the worst Prime Minister since Nevil Chamberlin. The whole shambolic Brexit debacle was a direct result of Cameron's stupidity, lack of courage, and lack of energy. Cameron makes Rudd look good.

Fair challenge, but most politicians make at least one bad mistake along the way, either of omission or commission.

I think the widespread damnation of Cameron for the Brexit debacle is now conventional wisdom, and like most conventional wisdom it's unbalanced and wrong.

Cameron took a political risk because his party was in danger of fracturing, and because the EU had drifted so far from its original mandate that it warranted a referendum as a matter of principle. It was as though Australia had chosen to join ASEAN, and then found, twenty years later, that the majority of its laws were being made in a parliament in Singapore, dedicated to "ever closer union". Cameron did not want to leave the EU, but he put ia referendum commitment in the 2015 Conservative election manifesto having calculated that, firstly, he would not win enough seats to form a government outright and any coalition partner would block it ; and secondly, that if he had to call the referendum, the British people's natural conservatism, bipartisan support and economic interest would not lead them off the Brexit cliff. As we now know, these were wrong assumptions, but politics is about taking calculated risks, and the calculation was a very reasonable one. Moreover, we cannot judge the costs of inaction. In any event, Cameron stabilized the yawning hole in the public finances after 2010, and he always looked at ease in the job, carrying the grudging respect of his party and the broader public.

On Merkel, you are probably right. There was little to be gained from the stupid open invitation to migration, and by seeking to lay off the consequences on other European nations, she greatly increased the fear and sense of disenfranchisement of European public opinion. This probably made the difference in the Brexit vote.

Still, she has been doing the job for many years now, and she looks and sounds like someone who is up to the job most of the time. Maintaining public confidence over such a long period without being a demagogue is an achievement in itself.

Obama achieved much. Extricating the US from the stupid Bush Wars and healing a fractured economy via a string of tough, non ideological decisions, while getting through a universal health care plan amid fierce opposition and generally seeming a dignified and balanced man is a reasonable fist of achievements