Is society getting worse?

[stui magpie]

Mine's a 7x5 flat trailer, but it's on a caravan base so the bit going from the trailer to the car is really long. you can get away with not registering toy trailers but this bugger is too big.

Sandwich aluminium base means I can load it with crap over months and the bottom won't rust out.

[think positive]

long draw bar is good, not so much damage if you jack knife it!! thats a good sized trailer. when we get ours back its staying in the workshop, going to get another camera, a spotlight, and reinforce the corner, its too easy to cut, cheers!

[Mugwump]

[pietillidie]

^Five minutes ago, I showed you that the crime and murder rate in the UK had fallen dramatically in the 00s. Why don't you use that as cause for relief?

Instead, an uptick in Victoria over the most recent two years, yet to be analysed with any seriousness, or discounted for any simultaneous decline in suffering both in Victoria and elsewhere, has set you off.

The diagnosis is a bad bout of Conservative Moral Panic, picked up from over-ingesting shrill, anxiety-causing information. The remedy is to eliminate all news and social media from your diet for three months.

Be warned, once this poison crosses the blood-brain barrier, you will no longer have access to the higher cognitive functions needed to solve complex problems, and resist reflexive projection.

[Mugwump]

^ PTID, I have made two points recently, viz :

1. The aggregate of murder, attempted murder and GBH (the series that provides reasonable continuity across a long period) increased 8x in the UK since the late 1960s to 2002 compared to a population increase of about 20% in that time. This is powerful data suggesting that literally hundreds of thousands of broken bodies and hearts have resulted from the moral revolution unleashed about fifty years ago. Social neo-liberals deliver capital and corporal punishment, but only to the innocent via third parties.

2. Victoria's violent crime is striking to me, given that I've recently spent more time here, and the stats for the last two years bear it out. There does not appear to be long series data for Victoria as there is in the Uk.

You have raked up a different dataset from the Guardian which does nothing to meaningfully rebut either of the two points above, and then indulged in your trademark insults about the "higher brain functions" of people with different views, in this case because they "ingest shrill anxiety causing information" (yeah, like, the official U.K. Government statistics and Crime Statistics Victoria websites).

[Morrigu]

^ well at least with what's happening here now it has stopped my Ma asking us not to go to Africa cause it's too dangerous

[stui magpie]

^

Seems like Zimbabwe is safer than Footscray.

[Morrigu]

^ by a long long long street!!!

The closest we got to being a bit frightened was when our friend the big ele changed tack a couple of metres from us and headed towards the car - reverse beep beep beep!!

Thankfully unlike some of the delights currently roaming the streets eles aren't aggressive thugs!

[think positive]

cops making some good inroads around here -
but check out the ages, bloody terrible. if they cant be charged as adults, then charge the person who is responsible for them!
http://www.starweekly.com.au/news/polic ... -on-crime/
and hopefully the judge gives them a lesson, not a warning

[Mugwump]

^ Though I question their priorities at a macro level, I think the beat cops are usually doing a relatively good job, TP. It's the politicians and the legal system that need real change, if we are once again to have violent criminals fearing the law. I know news is selective, but the Channel Nine news this evening was once again a litany of violent criminals terrorizing small shopkkeepers and the general public.

[Mugwump]

^ by a long long long street!!!

The closest we got to being a bit frightened was when our friend the big ele changed tack a couple of metres from us and headed towards the car - reverse beep beep beep!!

Thankfully unlike some of the delights currently roaming the streets eles aren't aggressive thugs!

Poverty itself does not cause crime. As anyone who has been to Africa knows, very often the poorest conduct themselves with unbelievable dignity and respectability, carefully equipping children for school amid harrowing poverty. It is arrogance and hedonism that causes crime, and a culture that breeds entitled arrogance will breed crime.

[pietillidie]

...since the late 1960s to 2002...You have raked up a different dataset from the Guardian...

Wow. I clearly used and linked to the latest ONS data for you, and you now try to muddy the water by mentioning The Guardian, as if I relied on it! How low can you go in order to maintain this posture of selective misery?

The Guardian only reared its ugly head because an article from it linked to the latest ONS data! Ever tried clicking on the top few links of a Google search to see if you can muster up anything from there? What a childish effort to deflect from the clear fact I used and referenced the latest UK Government ONS data.

For the record, here is my post using the latest ONS data, which you refuse to look at because it contextualises your claims by showing (a) they're outdated, and (b) something other than simplistic talk about a lack of respect for the law, or a declining society, or whatever the latest conservative panic is, is going on.

http://magpies.net/nick/bb/viewtopic.ph ... t=#1785526

Again, for the record, two simple questions for you:

*Why do you keep underscoring the rise in crime to 1995 and rise in murder to 2003 in the UK, yet you willfully ignore the dramatic fall since as shown by the 2015 ONS data?

*Is the 2015 ONS data, showing a great drop in crime/murder since 1995/2003, not cause for optimism?

Your mention of the two-year uptick in Victoria is an aside. Fine, but of no value unless you go further with it across time and jurisdictions, and bother to analyse it.

To reiterate, if you want to get serious, you have to interpret the data. Which social/policing/intervention/welfare policy/sentencing/socieeoconomic changes led to the rise in the UK to 1995/2003, and which ones led to the dramatic fall thereafter?

Then, to get even more serious, you need to factor in the impact of crimes which weren't even reported in the past: sexual/physical abuse, sexual/physical assault, elder abuse, outright gender/racial/disability/more discrimination across all facets of life, and a stack more. Many of these things aren't in the data because the situation was so bad no one even gave a toss about classifying and recording them.

In sum, if you're not analysing the data properly across time and jurisdiction, and not adjusting for data coding/policing/intervention/welfare policy/sentencing/socieeoconomic changes, or even trying to explore them, you're not being serious.

Instead, you're stubbornly refusing to weigh the data, far and near, good and bad, with any sense of curiosity and self doubt. Are these the miserable, cantankerous ruminations we all have to look forward to?

[stui magpie]

^ by a long long long street!!!

The closest we got to being a bit frightened was when our friend the big ele changed tack a couple of metres from us and headed towards the car - reverse beep beep beep!!

Thankfully unlike some of the delights currently roaming the streets eles aren't aggressive thugs!

Poverty itself does not cause crime. As anyone who has been to Africa knows, very often the poorest conduct themselves with unbelievable dignity and respectability, carefully equipping children for school amid harrowing poverty. It is arrogance and hedonism that causes crime, and a culture that breeds entitled arrogance will breed crime.

Not that i'm arguing that point generally, but an explanation in the context of the spate of Sudanese youths being involved in crime would be good.

You see the stories of these small shop break in's, burgs and standover tactics and they're nearly all Sudanese youths. These kids haven likely come here as refugees as small children and considering the relatively small population of Sudanese we have they are highly over represented in crime.

Is it as simple as having a mindset drilled into them in the refugee camps that in the far less strict real world, acts out?

[HAL]

Some people might consider [quote]

Not that he or she'm arguing that point but to be one.

[think positive]

^ by a long long long street!!!

The closest we got to being a bit frightened was when our friend the big ele changed tack a couple of metres from us and headed towards the car - reverse beep beep beep!!

Thankfully unlike some of the delights currently roaming the streets eles aren't aggressive thugs!

Poverty itself does not cause crime. As anyone who has been to Africa knows, very often the poorest conduct themselves with unbelievable dignity and respectability, carefully equipping children for school amid harrowing poverty. It is arrogance and hedonism that causes crime, and a culture that breeds entitled arrogance will breed crime.

Not that i'm arguing that point generally, but an explanation in the context of the spate of Sudanese youths being involved in crime would be good.

You see the stories of these small shop break in's, burgs and standover tactics and they're nearly all Sudanese youths. These kids haven likely come here as refugees as small children and considering the relatively small population of Sudanese we have they are highly over represented in crime.

Is it as simple as having a mindset drilled into them in the refugee camps that in the far less strict real world, acts out?

The article doesn't say what nationality they are, be interesting to know.. same the douch that took our trailer and robbed others to fill it with stuff. The one that robbed the house next to my girlfriends place is a career thief, he's white,

The thing is that there is just no respect, no fear, the penalties obviously don't outweigh the 'profit' in their minds. Someone said earlier about the lack of respect for police etc. people attacking paramedics saving lives, what the **** is going on? This is not just an immigrant problem. And it's not just druggies either.

But it would be nice to catch it before it happens. A generation raised in the naughty corner, lack of discipline, lack of manners, lack of respect, for others and for self. The me me me generation that doesn't have time or the inclination to raise their own children. who's parents didn't know exactly where they were at 11pm when they were 14? What the hell are 14 year olds doing prowling the streets on a school night? Williams landing is a nice area, brand new, nice houses and cars, but isolated. And has too many welfare districts around it. Welfare should be a way stop for help for the majority (not the injured, mental or physical of course) and not a way of life that is passed on through generations.