Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

[TaylorMade]

...
So do we think its a good bet K ? Its not bad imo have the odds dropped to 14-1?
...

Well, on H2H lines, if the bookies give $1.90 they're giving themselves a 5 1/4 % margin. But on this handicap minor premiership bet, $15 means they're giving themselves a 20% margin. That doesn't sound all that good to me. If they wanted it to be more like their H2H, they would have offered $17.

Unless they've bungled the handicaps for some teams. But then presumably they'd have bungled the H2Hs for the same teams, so you'd still be better off looking at those H2Hs.

Hmmmm, WOOSH

[glasseyevfx]

I'm going to change the order of my top 4 and go

Pies
Rich
Melb
weagles
Crows
cats
swans
gws

port
ess
haw
nth
carl
suns
saints
bris
wbullies
freo

[K]

Woosh?

[TaylorMade]

I'm going to change the order of my top 4 and go

Pies
Rich
Melb
weagles
Crows
cats
swans
gws

port
ess
haw
nth
carl
suns
saints
bris
wbullies
freo

That answers my question about freo, thanks

[TaylorMade]

Woosh?

I don't get it

[K]

On H2H if everyone & the true sporting odds are in synch, the bookies will make a safe 5 1/4 % profit.
For this handicap thing, they'll make a 20% profit.
Their profit margin would be in the 5-6% range if they offered $17, not $15.

[TaylorMade]

^
Oh sweet, got it, thanks
Does that mean they think they could potentially lose more money on that?

[simon tonna]

2017 I was a year to early on us finishing top
so I will try again with us on top

and the rest...........who gives a fat rats

[K]

...
Does that mean they think they could potentially lose more money on that?

Could be, I guess. The bigger the risk to them, the more buffer they may give themselves.

[glasseyevfx]

of all the games this year I think rnd 19 will be interesting for us - Richmond late in the season will be a tell all. Also the round before will have eagles v Melb and the week after Richmond v Melb.

we play all Richmond, Eagles and Melb twice.

[K]

Chris Pelchen's ladder prediction:

1. Richmond
2. Melbourne
3. Collingwood
4. Adelaide
5. GWS
6. Essendon
7. WCE
8. Hawthorn
9. Geelong
10. Sydney
11. North Melbourne
12. Port Adelaide
13. Brisbane
14. Fremantle
15. Western Bulldogs
16. St. Kilda
17. Carlton
18. Gold Coast

[K]

The [TAB] handicaps are:
Ade +6, Bris +14, Carl +32, Coll +4, Ess +6, Fre +20, Geel +8, Haw +10, NM +10, Mel +2, Port +14, Rich +0, StK +24, Syd +10, WC +4, WB +20, GC +48, GWS +10

I haven't found this market on sportsbet, but Ladbrokes has it. The Ladbroke handicaps are:
Adelaide Crows (+12) Brisbane Lions (+26) Carlton (+34)
Collingwood (+6) Essendon (+10) Fremantle (+26)
Geelong Cats (+14) Gold Coast Suns (+48 ) GWS Giants (+12)
Hawthorn (+20) Melbourne (+8 ) North Melbourne (+20)
Port Adelaide (+16) Richmond (Scratch) St Kilda (+30)
Sydney Swans (+14) West Coast Eagles (+6) Western Bulldogs (+26)

But Ladbrokes is offering only $11.
They're giving themselves a margin over 60%. Ridiculous! Stay away!!

Their handicaps look a fair bit different from TAB's...

[Skids]

But their market gives everyone else a better chance of beating the favourite (Richmond).... hence the lower return.

You really need to do a bit more research to understand how betting markets work K.

[K]

I didn't yet look too hard at the handicaps, but I did see GC is the same (+48 ).

Re. doing research, you are my research, Skids.

More seriously, I'm not sure that even after I look at the handicaps it'll be clear that Ladbrokes are taking on more risk with their handicaps. How do you set "safe" handicaps?

[I have to see Rich's fixture... How many interstate games, for starters? But I don't see them as the benchmark. If they have injuries, including to Lynch, I wouldn't be surprised if they miss the eight.]

[HAL]

How does doing that make you feel?