US election 2020

[David]

Warren’s an interesting one. Started out as a Republican and only switched parties in the mid-‘90s, which is interesting as you wouldn’t think there was a big shift in Republican politics between the end of the ‘70s and the emergence of Trump. But whatever happened, she has been further to the left than most Democrats for quite a long time now, long before being a socialist (which she isn’t) was fashionable. Honestly, I trust her way more than one-time right-pandering Democrats like Gillibrand and Klobuchar who recently decided to be more progressive.

[think positive]

if thats not photoshopped the look on the guys face is hysterical! id kill to take that shot!!

[Wokko]

I love that David's posting Tucker Carlson links, that's made my day.

Of course the Right doesn't give two shits about this, but after the Kavanaugh hearing and the constant attacks on Trump and now we've got the centre-left defending Biden, the Right wants to call out the hypocrisy and stick it to all the braying <snip>s like Alyssa Milano who played holier than thou life destroyer to Brett Kavanaugh.

Biden is obviously a creepy dude and the left wing of the democrat party wants him gone. They're willing to use the Right's rage to do it.

The 'grab them by the pussy' thing is so tired, the quote is "They let you", as in when you're rich and famous women give consent readily and happily no matter what.

[Wokko]

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 3080620724

[Skids]

Current SB market for the 2020 presidential election;

Trumpinator $2.55

O'Rourke $6.50
Harris $9
Biden $13
Warren $17
M.Obama $17
Bernie $21
Pence $26
Gabbard $26
Klobuchar $31
Bloomberg $31
Booker $31
Gillibrand $34
Joe Kennedy the third $41
Shapirio $51
Hitlery $51
Oprah $51
Castro $67
Kayne West $201
Beyonc $301
Oscar de la Hoya $401

Stormy Daniels & Wokko $501

The market has moved quite a bit. Trump has firmed in to $2.15

Bernie a big mover 20's in to 5's
Harris 8's in to 11/2
Biden 12's in to 9's

Warren a big drifter, out to 33's
Gillibrand 33's out to 66's
Gabbard 25's out to 50's... same for Pence.
Castro, unwanted, out to 150/1.

[David]

Sanders just did a live Q&A on Fox News. Worth a look:

https://youtu.be/p4ozAACcc8I

[David]

The clown car's well and truly full now.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/05 ... -president

[Wokko]

The republican field was pretty full last time around but they were almost certainties after Obama, not sure why so many Dems want to take on Trump. I guess if they win then they'd be Democrat messiahs and that's a hard temptation to pass up if you're a narcissistic sociopath

[David]

^ I think a lot of them feel that a drover's dog could beat Trump, and at least some of them may well be right. But you have to look at some of the names and wonder why they're even bothering when they obviously stand no chance of getting the nomination.

[Wokko]

Biden looks like the only one who can beat him, as long as he can keep the whole Creepy Uncle Joe thing downplayed and not say or do anything monumentally stupid like he did the other two times he ran.

Trump is a very, very good campaigner and polls have shown to be useless when it comes to him, people wont admit they're going to vote for him but they do anyway.

[David]

You'd have to admit, though, that Clinton lost that election as much as Trump won it. Unless Trump's popularity has radically improved between 2016 and now, all the Dem candidate has to do is to a) be less unpopular than Clinton and b) be better at getting Democrat-leaning voters to the polls.

Certainly, at least some of the candidates would probably fail to manage that, and someone like Sanders would bring substantial demographic advantages and challenges, but I feel like any major candidate (Biden, Harris, Sanders, Warren) has a decent chance of beating Trump.

[Wokko]

Clinton had the media, celebrities, Silicon Valley tech, demographics and momentum on her side and blew it by being arrogant, cold and corrupt (cheating Sanders even though he probably would've lost anyway).

I'd be surprised if Democrats throw it away quite as badly as she did, they SHOULD win but both sides have thrown away winnable elections over the journey and the Dem candidtes are generally pretty lacklustre. They have to excite their base and get them out and wanting to vote, who does that? There's a reason that Biden's secret service code was Assassination Insurance.

[Jezza]

Biden and Sanders are the only realistic prospects of defeating Trump. I don't see any other candidates having a chance.

Trump's base is remarkably stable. His numbers aren't huge, but they haven't turned on him either.

[David]

The first two Democratic candidate debates are happening next week, which means that the twenty (yes, twenty) major candidates have been all but locked in. This will be the first time that anyone but political obsessives will have heard of a lot of these people, so it’ll be interesting to see who gets traction from this.

First night 26/6:
Bill de Blasio
Cory Booker
Julian Castro
John Delaney
Tulsi Gabbard
Jay Inslee
Amy Klobuchar
Beto O’Rourke
Tim Ryan
Elizabeth Warren

Second night 27/6:
Michael Bennet
Joe Biden
Pete Buttigieg
Kirsten Gillibrand
Kamala Harris
John Hickenlooper
Bernie Sanders
Eric Swalwell
Marianne Williamson
Andrew Yang

The second night definitely seems the more substantial one, given the presence of four of the five current polling frontrunners (Biden, Sanders, Harris and Buttigieg). In contrast, Warren has the spotlight nearly all to herself on the first night, with Booker and O’Rourke the only other candidates considered any kind of a chance. It’s interesting to see that even total minnows / novelty candidates like Williamson and Yang will be appearing. Should be entertaining! And I hope we’ll yet get to see Gabbard vs Sanders.

[Jezza]

Outside of the obvious candidates in Biden and Sanders, I think the likes of Gabbard and Yang might gain some traction.

Gabbard is staunchly anti-war and Yang has spoken heavily about job losses in the rust belt states due to the advancements in automation.