US election 2020

[David]

[stui magpie]

Such a drawn out process where people notionally on the same side pick holes in each other, while the opponent they all hope to face can sit back, take notes and throw hand grenades at will.

[Wokko]

Such a drawn out process where people notionally on the same side pick holes in each other, while the opponent they all hope to face can sit back, take notes and throw hand grenades at will.

That's why the years with no incumbent like 2016 are much more fun

[Jezza]

South Carolina

Delegate Count:
- Joe Biden = 39
- Bernie Sanders = 15

Popular Vote (%):
- Joe Biden = 255,562 (48.8%)
- Bernie Sanders = 105,070 (19.9%)
- Tom Steyer = 59,815 (11.3%)
- Pete Buttigieg = 43,484 (8.2%)
- Elizabeth Warren = 37,285 (7.1%)

_______________________________________________________________

Democratic Primaries (Overall):

Estimated Delegate Count:
- Bernie Sanders = 60
- Joe Biden = 54
- Pete Buttigieg = 26
- Elizabeth Warren = 8
- Amy Klobuchar = 7

Popular Vote (%):
- Joe Biden = 323,357 (29.4%)
- Bernie Sanders = 268,149 (24.4%)
- Pete Buttigieg = 176,734 (16.1%)
- Amy Klobuchar = 87,270 (16.6%)
- Elizabeth Warren = 103,859 (9.4%)

Contests Won:
- Bernie Sanders = 2
- Pete Buttigieg = 1
- Joe Biden = 1
_______________________________________________________________

Republican Primaries (Overall):

Estimated Delegate Count:
- Donald Trump = 144
- Bill Weld = 1

Popular Vote (%):
- Donald Trump = 160,925 (91.23%)
- Bill Weld = 14,195 (8.05%)

Contests Won:
- Donald Trump = 5

[Jezza]

Super Tuesday (March 3 2020)

Alabama (61 delegates - 52 pledged, 9 unpledged)
- No recent polling, but Biden is expected to win.

Arkansas (36 delegates - 31 pledged, 5 unpledged)
Feb 6-7 polling
- Michael Bloomberg = 19.6%
- Joe Biden = 18.5%
- Bernie Sanders = 16.4%
- Pete Buttigeg = 15.5%
- Other = 10.1%
- Elizabeth Warren = 8.9%

American Samoa (11 delegates - 6 pledged, 5 unpledged)
- No polling. Only expect a few hundred to vote.

California (494 delegates - 415 pledged, 79 unpledged)
February polling average:
- Bernie Sanders = 33.1%
- Elizabeth Warren = 16.2%
- Undecided = 13.0%
- Joe Biden = 12.6%
- Michael Bloomberg = 10.5%
- Pete Buttigieg = 9.0%
- Amy Klobuchar = 5.1%
- Tulsi Gabbard = 1.7%

Colorado (80 delegates - 67 pledged, 13 unpledged)
February 20-27 polling average:
- Bernie Sanders = 30.7%
- Elizabeth Warren = 17.0%
- Michael Bloomberg = 12.5%
- Pete Buttigieg = 12.4%
- Joe Biden = 10.9%
- Undecided = 10.3%
- Amy Klobuchar = 5.8%
- Tulsi Gabbard = 0.9%

Maine (32 delegates - 24 pledged, 8 unpledged)
February 10-13 polling average:
- Bernie Sanders = 24.3%
- Pete Buttigeg = 15.8%
- Michael Bloomberg = 14.9%
- Undecided = 13.4%
- Joe Biden = 12.1%
- Elizabeth Warren = 11.1%
- Other = 4.3%
- Amy Klobuchar = 4.1%

Massachusetts (114 delegates - 91 pledged, 23 unpledged)
February 12-29 polling average:
- Bernie Sanders = 23.9%
- Elizabeth Warren = 19.4%
- Pete Buttigieg = 13.6%
- Michael Bloomberg = 11.9%
- Joe Biden = 11.5%
- Other/Undecided = 10.2%
- Amy Klobuchar = 7.3%
- Tulsi Gabbard = 2.2%

Minnesota (92 delegates - 75 pledged, 17 unpledged)
February 20-27 polling average:
- Amy Klobuchar = 27.2%
- Bernie Sanders = 22.7%
- Elizabeth Warren = 13.7%
- Undecided = 11.8%
- Joe Biden = 8.6%
- Pete Buttigieg = 7.1%
- Michael Bloomberg = 6.0%
- Tulsi Gabbard = 2.3%

North Carolina (122 delegates - 110 pledged, 12 unpledged)
February 12-27 polling average:
- Joe Biden = 22.9%
- Bernie Sanders = 21.7%
- Michael Bloomberg = 17.6%
- Undecided = 10.7%
- Elizabeth Warren = 10.6%
- Pete Buttigieg = 8.0%
- Amy Klobuchar = 5.0%
- Tulsi Gabbard = 1.2%

Oklahoma (42 delegates - 37 pledged, 5 unpledged)
February 10-21 polling average:
- Michael Bloomberg = 19.0%
- Joe Biden = 16.0%
- Bernie Sanders = 15.0%
- Undecided = 13.5%
- Pete Buttigieg = 9.5%
- Elizabeth Warren = 8.5%
- Amy Klobuchar = 7.0%
- Other = 2.5%

Tennessee (73 delegates - 64 pledged, 9 unpledged)
- No recent polling, but consensus seems to be Biden is slightly in front with Sanders not too far behind him.

Texas (262 delegates - 228 pledged, 34 unpledged)
February 6-27 polling average:
- Bernie Sanders = 26.1%
- Joe Biden = 20.9%
- Michael Bloomberg = 18.4%
- Elizabeth Warren = 13.3%
- Pete Buttigieg = 8.0%
- Undecided = 6.0%
- Amy Klobuchar = 4.6%
- Others = 2.7%

Utah (35 delegates - 29 pledged, 6 unpledged)
February 18-26 2020 polling average:
- Bernie Sanders = 27.8%
- Michael Bloomberg = 16.3%
- Undecided = 15.0%
- Pete Buttigieg = 14.8%
- Elizabeth Warren = 14.8%
- Joe Biden = 7.5%
- Amy Klobuchar = 3.8%

Vermont (23 delegates - 16 pledged, 7 unpledged)
February 4-10 poll:
- Bernie Sanders = 51.0%
- Pete Buttigieg = 13.0%
- Elizabeth Warren = 9.0%
- Michael Bloomberg = 7.0%
- Undecided = 7.0%
- Joe Biden = 5.0%
- Amy Klobuchar = 4.0%
- Other = 2.0%
- Tulsi Gabbard = 1.0%

Virginia (124 delegates - 99 pledged, 25 unpledged)
February 13-25 polling average:
- Bernie Sanders = 24.0%
- Michael Bloomberg = 19.0%
- Joe Biden = 18.9%
- Pete Buttigieg = 11.2%
- Elizabeth Warren = 10.4%
- Undecided = 7.6%
- Amy Klobuchar = 6.6%
- Other = 1.4%

[stui magpie]

So, unless I misread those numbers completely, Bernie has around 25% of the vote so far at the conventions.

Tracking at 25% of the vote from roughly 35% of voters, and for some strange reason given a chance of being elected POTUS

[David]

Thanks Jezza! Good to collate all those figures. Looks like a big day coming up for Sanders on Tuesday (Wednesday our time), but nothing is set in stone of course. Will be watching intently.

Stui, Trump had a comparable share of the Republican vote at this stage in the 2016 primaries (perhaps a little higher). It’s to be expected in a crowded primary race. I think Sanders will need something closer to 40% to clinch the nomination, though.

[Wokko]

Thanks Jezza! Good to collate all those figures. Looks like a big day coming up for Sanders on Tuesday (Wednesday our time), but nothing is set in stone of course. Will be watching intently.

Stui, Trump had a comparable share of the Republican vote at this stage in the 2016 primaries (perhaps a little higher). It’s to be expected in a crowded primary race. I think Sanders will need something closer to 40% to clinch the nomination, though.

He'll need the full 51% or the DNC will roll him.

[David]

Well, it all depends on just how suicidal they’re feeling. I think it’s clear that at least some of them would rather lose to Trump than nominate Sanders.

[Wokko]

Trump mocks Bloomberg at CPAC

https://twitter.com/i/status/1233861963454832642

[Pies4shaw]

Well, it all depends on just how suicidal they’re feeling. I think it’s clear that at least some of them would rather lose to Trump than nominate Sanders.

It’s important to appreciate that, save for the rhetoric and a few embellishments at the margins, the Democrats and Republicans represent the same ideology.

I see that the ConPAC is doing a “Reds Under the Beds” thing with Sanders, which is a little laughable - but then some presidential candidates in his own party have been doing a version of the same thing.

[David]

Buttigieg is calling it quits. Most likely angling for Biden’s VP position.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/01/us/p ... s-out.html

That’s a big boost for Biden, who will probably scoop up a lot of his voters. Silver linings for Sanders are that his vote will still scatter at least a little and that early voting has already well and truly started for Super Tuesday, hopefully blunting a lot of the immediate benefit Biden would otherwise be enjoying from this.

[Wokko]

https://babylonbee.com/news/buttigieg-c ... bMWCfTeiv4

You just know that Sanders will go with a woman or "Person of Color", probably both as his VP slot to tick all the identity boxes he can.

Pete would add a youthful vibrancy to Biden's campaign (like Sarah Palin for McCain). He would also like being 'One heartbeat from the presidency' when it's the aging, senile Biden in front of him.

[Pies4shaw]

Klobuchar has reportedly pulled the pin and is said to be about to endorse Biden. Buttigieg is apparently thinking of endorsing Biden also.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/liv ... ve-updates

[Wokko]

Biden is now the youngest male candidate in the field

https://disrn.com/news/77-year-old-bide ... at-primary