Post inauguration Trump:

[pietillidie]

In late January President Trump was praising China on twitter for it's efforts and transparency in trying to contain Coronavirus. Strange. Was he trying to convey the message that it was business as usual and downplay the economic and health risk?

In early March Boris Johnson was shaking the hands of COVID-19 patients seemingly trying to allay the same fears as Trump. At this stage there was a policy supposedly of implementing herd immunity as a way to combat the pandemic in the UK. Bizarre.

Around the same time Scott Morrison proudly proclaimed he would be attending the opening week of the NRL. He later reversed that decision.

One is left to wonder just how close Australia came under Morrison to being in the same dire situation the UK and USA now find themselves in?

Was it good luck, good leadership, good advice or a likely mixture of all 3?

Our relative isolation from the rest of the world certainly provided us with an advantage and while we are a popular tourist destination in comparison to the US and Europe our numbers are far less.

If the outbreak of COVID-19 in China wasn't enough evidence to the risk of this virus Australia and the US in particular also had the advantage of Italy to forewarn them of the danger to come. The UK due to it's proximity to Europe was in far less fortunate position.

Still Morrison might have been heading in the same direction as Trump and Johnson around the time of the NRL season opener, seemingly more concerned with the economic implication to come than the health one but thankfully somewhere along the way wiser heads prevailed and the government started to take their lead from the expert medical advice they were being provided with.

That is probably the key difference between our Australian government and those in the UK and US until now.

Unlike in the UK Morrison either wasn't presented with or dismissed the notion of herd immunity as an option for controlling COVID-19 while unlike the US our commander in chief , his chief medical officer and the state Premiers have in general been steadfast in portraying a unified and consistent message on the health measures required to limit the spread COVID-19.

Now compare that to Trump who has sunk to a new low of actively encouraging citizen revolt against the social distancing measures in place across a few states all run by Democrats.

I'm no Coalition supporter or Morrison fan but right now it's hard not to argue that the federal government, alongside the state Premiers, our leading medical experts, healthcare professionals, essential workers and Australians in general aren't doing a great job of limiting the spread of COVID-19 and remaining patient with the processes involved to save lives.

I haven't followed the Aussie response in detail, mostly getting updates from mum, but I would definitely be adding low population density somewhere near the top of your list.

[Tannin]

I haven't followed the Aussie response in detail, mostly getting updates from mum, but I would definitely be adding low population density somewhere near the top of your list.

Dunno why.

Australia's population density is not particularly low. People constantly make this mistake. Over and over, otherwise intelligent people imagine that several large, medium-dense cities plus vast areas of empty semi-desert somehow equals low population density.

You wouldn't call an archipelago with lots of people on it, surrounded by lots of empty ocean a "low density" place. Why would you call the Australian archipelago of very large cities surrounded by empty land "low density"?

Are our suburbs relatively low density compared to, say, London? Sure they are. But they are far more dense than they were in the 1960s, there are more and more flats and units, and as for the inner parts of the capital cities, they are chockablock full of huge high-rises.

Look elsewhere for explanations.

[Tannin]

In late January President Trump was praising China on twitter for it's efforts and transparency in trying to contain Coronavirus. Strange. Was he trying to convey the message that it was business as usual and downplay the economic and health risk?

In early March Boris Johnson was shaking the hands of COVID-19 patients seemingly trying to allay the same fears as Trump. At this stage there was a policy supposedly of implementing herd immunity as a way to combat the pandemic in the UK. Bizarre.

Around the same time Scott Morrison proudly proclaimed he would be attending the opening week of the NRL. He later reversed that decision.

One is left to wonder just how close Australia came under Morrison to being in the same dire situation the UK and USA now find themselves in?

Was it good luck, good leadership, good advice or a likely mixture of all 3?

It was Dan Andrews and Gladys Berejiklian.

Scotty was still in cloud-cuckoo land and had to be dragged into reality by the prospect of the two biggest states sticking up the finger to him and going their own way.

Peter Gutwein (Tas) and Mark McGowan (WA) and Stephen Marshal (SA) all weighed in too, bringing in control measures like closing borders against the express wishes of the Prime Minister. But it was the imminent prospect of the two biggest states openly rejecting Scotty's half-hearted half measures which forced the backflip.

[David]

I haven't followed the Aussie response in detail, mostly getting updates from mum, but I would definitely be adding low population density somewhere near the top of your list.

Dunno why.

Australia's population density is not particularly low. People constantly make this mistake. Over and over, otherwise intelligent people imagine that several large, medium-dense cities plus vast areas of empty semi-desert somehow equals low population density.

You wouldn't call an archipelago with lots of people on it, surrounded by lots of empty ocean a "low density" place. Why would you call the Australian archipelago of very large cities surrounded by empty land "low density"?

Are our suburbs relatively low density compared to, say, London? Sure they are. But they are far more dense than they were in the 1960s, there are more and more flats and units, and as for the inner parts of the capital cities, they are chockablock full of huge high-rises.

Look elsewhere for explanations.

My pet theory is temperature. There has been a study, I think, that shows this virus spreads more easily in colder climates, and I think if you look at the map, countries in the southern hemisphere (where this has been happening over late summer and the early part of autumn) seem to be generally faring better. Of course there are a lot of other factors, but if there's any truth to this hypothesis, then we can't afford to be complacent about our low numbers, because we may just be in the calm before the storm.

Edit: here's a recent article making a similar suggestion.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/scie ... irus-grip/

Although some grim irony here:

Winter also finds people spending more time indoors than they do in the warmer months, leading to a drop in vitamin D levels that can increase susceptibility to disease. Vitamin D boosts the function of macrophages and T-cells, members of the immune system that fight pathogens attempting to enter the body.

[think positive]

the US is going into summer, but it has already been said that the virus cant live over 28 degrees, it will be a while before New york hits that temperature.

However the map with figures per state doesnt back it up. Florida is bloody hot even in winter, and it has huge figures. it also has a high population, and a lot of them are retirees. A lot of retirees have existing health problems.

i would think that density would have an awful lot to do with it and the map shows that. For example Miami Dade is full of young fun hip types, its full on, ( i love it there!) lots of young things dancing all night in close proximity, it has a high number of cases, yet the death toll is lower per 100,000 compared with the more spread out communities higher up in Florida, even though those communities are more spread out, ie, less dense, and also, an older population. it makes sense.

and you can see the midwest has less cases, the population is no where near as dense, lots of wide open spaces, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North and South Dakota, where as Colorado's count stands out like a sore thumb - lot of people in Colorado, and big crowded cities. places like Wyoming still have some snow falling, or some of the snow from winter is still on the ground. its there til the start of May. Colorado would still have some on the peaks but not much id think, and the city is warm. warm and full of people. Denver has a mall like we have running through the middle of town, there is live music at several spots, and you can just stand there in the street drinking! its always packed.

also, health and income, see Georgia and Louisiana.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

[pietillidie]

[Tannin]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSuregWhlWk

Sorry. link fixed now.

PS: PTID: nonsense. Show some evidence if you want to make silly assertions. There is nothing to show tat Australia's effective population density (i.e., the part where people actually live) is substantially different o, for example, Los Angles or most pother US cities. And the US is the worst-hit Coronahell on earth.

[pietillidie]

[David]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSuregWhlWk

I can’t even begin to say how much I hate how good that is.

[pietillidie]

^That's awesome

[pietillidie]

One of the casualties of the deranged narcissist have been women in Christian Taliban-controlled states:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/us/a ... virus.html

Sinking the boot into young women for his own political advantage is exactly what you'd expect from this piece of dog filth.

[Tannin]

PTID, you are talking as if

(a) You know what the population density is in given cities, which you admit you don't.
(b) The area people have for their actual homes makes a real didfference, which of course it doesn't.

The important thing - indeed the only thing - is the degree of crowding in places of congregation under lockdown. Basically, that's supermarkets, plus a few other odds and ends.

[pietillidie]

^I talk as if I know the relative densities. Anyone can compare Melbourne's density to New York's density to the person. I used to train people on the impact of density on behaviour and compare cities all the time; it's not secret data. Do a search for the Wikipedia page on the density of US cities. Compare that to Australian cities. I won't even mention Asian cities because that's just ridiculous. Yes, Sydney and Melbourne are far less dense. Why am I even wasting my time with this?

Good luck doing anything or going anywhere in Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai and Tokyo and keeping distance, supermarket or otherwise. You can't get from your car to your apartment on the 12th floor without passing people in close quarters. Even supermarkets differ; e g., UK supermarkets have narrower aisles than Australian supermarkets. Density impacts everything.

Next, you'll be arguing that the only places which matter when assessing the efficacy of social distancing are crowded nightclubs, and they're crowded the world over, so therefore density is not an important factor.

[Tannin]

^Yadda yadda. Of course certain crowded hell-cities are extra dense. (You mention examples.) But the typical cities of, for example, America are a different matter. Indeed, the USA has - a handful of mega-cities aside - much smaller cities than Australia does. (But many more of them, of course.)

[pietillidie]

^Here you go. Pick the major cities out.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... population

Tell me, what did you discover from this mysterious secret data?