US election 2020

[stui magpie]

Checked the odds on Sportsbet.

Trump is $1.92
Biden is $2.10

Next cab off the rank is who they must think is the one to be called in if Biden drops off the perch, Andrew Cuomo at $34

Hillary and Pence are $51

Bernie is on $81 with Michelle Obama with Nikki Haley at $151 for the field.

[David]

Kind of weird, given the objectively likely outcome of Biden stepping down is that his nominated VP (i.e. most likely one of Amy Klobuchar, Gretchen Whitmer, Kamala Harris or Stacy Abrams, none of whom are listed above) gets the nod. I think there'll be a big push for that at the convention, if Biden were forced to step down beforehand.

[PyreneesPie]

This means people who trade in reality are fully aware they will be choosing between (a) Trump, a dangerously narcissistic geriatric criminal and widely believed sex offender (including widely believed underage sex predator) whose incompetence has resulted in multiple thousands of deaths, who can't string two true or sensible words together, and whose mental illness and dementia are worsening, and (b) Biden, a geriatric and widely believed sex offender whose dementia is worsening but who could organise and manage a stable government for a bit.

That's what the binary political choice has been reduced to.

One can only hope that Biden is replaced 'for health reasons' with a younger candidate. But if batshit unstable creep and criminal Trump wins again, the outcome is far worse than enduring Biden, and we face massive global instability and risk.

What a disgraceful predicament. This is where binary politics gets you, and even worse with a mini-fiefdom presidency structure. It's pathetic.

An truly excellent summary of the situation IMHO.

[Wokko]

Trump outpolling Biden in battleground states before any campaigning or debates. If the DNC don't pull Biden it's going to be a Dukakis level massacre.

https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-l ... 1588847510

[David]

Biden’s problem with Latino voters:

https://news.yahoo.com/biden-campaign-d ... 56489.html

[stui magpie]

How Trump wins again, in 3 sentences.

"Donald Trump is a rough individual. He is vain, insensitive and raw. But he loves America more than any President in my lifetime."

Ummmmmmm, say what?

The simple truth is that Trump was not (in 2016) and is not now someone who a majority of Americans say they like or admire. Consider these numbers from the 2016 exit poll:
1) Less than 4 in 10 voters in 2016 said they had a favorable opinion of Trump
2) Just 1 in 3 thought Trump was honest and trustworthy
3) Only 35% said that Trump had the right temperament to be president
How did Trump win? Because people may not have liked him but they wanted radical change in Washington and believed that he could bring it about. Four in 10 voters said that the most important quality in a candidate was one that "can bring change," among that group, Trump beat Clinton 82% to 14%.
The message Woods is offering up for Trump in 2020 is simply a variation on that original theme. And it goes something like this: Yeah, he's a jerk. And no, I wouldn't want him have him over for dinner. But when it comes to actually getting stuff done for America, there's no one better.

So with Trump you have the lovers and the haters, you aint gonna change the minds of either, so can they convince the undecided?

A vote for Biden is back to the Democrat establishment, that's almost his campaign. Will that fly? do people still want change and challenge or has Donny given them their fill?

Interesting article, I found it worth a read, you may not.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/18/poli ... index.html

[David]

But he loves America more than any President in my lifetime.

Man, I have a bridge to sell that guy.

[Wokko]

But he loves America more than any President in my lifetime.

Man, I have a bridge to sell that guy.

He's always loved his country, that's why he ran in the first place. Even someone who hates the guy should be able to see that.

[Tannin]

How Trump wins again, in 3 sentences.

"Donald Trump is a rough individual. He is vain, insensitive and raw. But he loves America more than any President in my lifetime."

Ummmmmmm, say what?

The simple truth is that Trump was not (in 2016) and is not now someone who a majority of Americans say they like or admire. Consider these numbers from the 2016 exit poll:
1) Less than 4 in 10 voters in 2016 said they had a favorable opinion of Trump
2) Just 1 in 3 thought Trump was honest and trustworthy
3) Only 35% said that Trump had the right temperament to be president
How did Trump win? Because people may not have liked him but they wanted radical change in Washington and believed that he could bring it about. Four in 10 voters said that the most important quality in a candidate was one that "can bring change," among that group, Trump beat Clinton 82% to 14%.
The message Woods is offering up for Trump in 2020 is simply a variation on that original theme. And it goes something like this: Yeah, he's a jerk. And no, I wouldn't want him have him over for dinner. But when it comes to actually getting stuff done for America, there's no one better.

So with Trump you have the lovers and the haters, you aint gonna change the minds of either, so can they convince the undecided?

A vote for Biden is back to the Democrat establishment, that's almost his campaign. Will that fly? do people still want change and challenge or has Donny given them their fill?

Interesting article, I found it worth a read, you may not.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/18/poli ... index.html

Good as far as it goes, but it misses the main point. Trump didn't get a lot of votes. He didn't win. He did worse than Romney! What went wrong was that the Democrats, in an election that the drover's dog could have won for them, managed to run with someone more unpopular than a mangy dog.

[David]

[stui magpie]

How Trump wins again, in 3 sentences.

"Donald Trump is a rough individual. He is vain, insensitive and raw. But he loves America more than any President in my lifetime."

Ummmmmmm, say what?

The simple truth is that Trump was not (in 2016) and is not now someone who a majority of Americans say they like or admire. Consider these numbers from the 2016 exit poll:
1) Less than 4 in 10 voters in 2016 said they had a favorable opinion of Trump
2) Just 1 in 3 thought Trump was honest and trustworthy
3) Only 35% said that Trump had the right temperament to be president
How did Trump win? Because people may not have liked him but they wanted radical change in Washington and believed that he could bring it about. Four in 10 voters said that the most important quality in a candidate was one that "can bring change," among that group, Trump beat Clinton 82% to 14%.
The message Woods is offering up for Trump in 2020 is simply a variation on that original theme. And it goes something like this: Yeah, he's a jerk. And no, I wouldn't want him have him over for dinner. But when it comes to actually getting stuff done for America, there's no one better.

So with Trump you have the lovers and the haters, you aint gonna change the minds of either, so can they convince the undecided?

A vote for Biden is back to the Democrat establishment, that's almost his campaign. Will that fly? do people still want change and challenge or has Donny given them their fill?

Interesting article, I found it worth a read, you may not.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/18/poli ... index.html

Good as far as it goes, but it misses the main point. Trump didn't get a lot of votes. He didn't win. He did worse than Romney! What went wrong was that the Democrats, in an election that the drover's dog could have won for them, managed to run with someone more unpopular than a mangy dog.

Slice it however you like, you can say "he didn't win" but guess who is POTUS?

Clue, not Clinton.

[pietillidie]

But he loves America more than any President in my lifetime.

Man, I have a bridge to sell that guy.

He's always loved his country, that's why he ran in the first place. Even someone who hates the guy should be able to see that.

That's one of the more naive things written in quite a while.

When a serial, compulsive liar keeps signalling something, as Trump does with his fake 'our country', and strategically intersperses it into every third sentence, you know he's trying to play you like a fiddle. Bizarrely, you're the one who goes on about virtue signalling, yet this one somehow went straight through to the keeper.

As a malignant narcissist Trump loves only himself. Everything else is collateral to be wielded to that end; hence, his complete inability to compute that tens of thousands of dead people and economic collapse are risks worth losing sleep over.

[Tannin]

Duh Stui. Here, I'll give you a free tutorial on the use of English to communicate stuff. No charge, be my guest.

When we have a really bad match - we drop marks, don't man up, kick it out on the full from straight in front, fumble, handball into traffic ... all those things a side does when it's having a bad hair day and, by rights ought to get thrashed, when that happens but the other side is even worse, people describe the result with a phrase like "We didn't win, St Kilda lost". It means "we didn't do enough to deserve the win, but we got it anyway", or similar.

Trump lost the popular vote, and lost it badly. He got fewer votes than the previous losing Republican. In any normal election, he would have been wiped completely out. But in 2016, there was an even worse candidate - Clinton. Democrats, the very same people who turned out to vote for Obama, and Obama before that, and Kerry and Gore, stayed at home in their hundreds of thousands. Trump didn't win. Clinton lost.

This is the lesson the Democrats have learned: don't put up a hated candidate, put up someone people will actually vote for. Don't put up someone half the party can't stand (e.g., Clinton, Sanders), put up someone everyone (bar a handful of extremist nutcases) can get behind. This is why they picked Biden. He is someone everyone can agree on. A unity candidate, and a very sensible choice.

(Disclaimer: personally, I wanted Warren. But that was never going to happen this time around. Maybe next time.)

[Wokko]

He got fewer votes than the previous losing Republican.

1. Popular vote means nothing, it's a stat.

2. He got more votes than Romney. Just because you don't say something for a while after it gets debunked doesn't mean that it suddenly becomes the truth later.

[Jezza]

Obama (2012)
- 332 electoral votes.
- 65,915,795 votes.
- 51.1% of the popular vote.
- Won the popular vote in 26 states + DC.
- 61.7% of the electoral college vote.

Romney (2012)
- 206 electoral votes.
- 60,933,504 votes.
- 47.2% of the popular vote.
- Gained Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska (2nd district)
- Won the popular vote in 24 states.
- 38.3% of the electoral college vote.

Clinton (2016)
- 232 electoral votes, though it was revised to 227 after five faithless electors voted for other candidates.
- 65,853,514 votes.
- 48.2% of the vote.
- Won the popular vote in 20 states + DC.
- 43.1% of the electoral college vote.

Trump (2016)
- 306 electoral votes, though it was revised to 304 after two faithless electors voted for other candidates.
- 62,984,828 votes.
- 46.1% of the vote.
- Gained Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Iowa and Ohio.
- Won the popular vote in 30 states + Maine (2nd district).
- 56.9% of the electoral college vote.