US election 2020

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Who do you hope wins the US Election?

Trump
9
39%
Biden
9
39%
Don't Care
5
22%
 
Total votes: 23

pietillidie
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Post by pietillidie »

Tannin wrote:Bullshiite, David. That is 100% pure bullshite.

There was every reason possible to doubt the word of a serial liar, and a serial liar claiming something electorally very convenient to himself.

Believing Trump prior to seeing reliable, fact-based evidence to support his claim would be really, really, really dumb. Thankfully, most of us here are smart enough to realise this, and we suspended judgement pending actual evidence.

(Trump's unsupported tweet isn't ever evidence of anything.)

Note also that now the evidence is tricking in, it is full of lies and contradictions. Even his bloody doctor lies.
Indeed.

Clearly, the only rational position here is to not trust any word or demonstration by a narcissism-driven psychopath surrounded by paid professional liars in the most powerful office on the planet. The logic here is not even slightly complicated.

As warned, and as shown but five minutes later with the layers of deceit about his condition, everything Trump says is either a lie or embedded in a constellation of obfuscating lies. Even the truths of the malignant narcissist serve only the purpose of manipulation, as nothing said or done by such people is ever genuine.

David, you underestimate the pathology; perhaps you can't countenance that some people are so mentally ill their entire psychiatry is geared to manipulation and deceit. Everything else is superfluous. Such people can even simulate empathy and concern because they've learned that these too can serve them.

There is nothing worth bearing with here, Skywalker, and no level of even-handedness, normalisation or minimisation that can turn this reckless farce into something less dangerous and costly for the planet ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9S3BD-uFl7M ).

This is a horror show from start to finish despite its comedic elements, and like Afghanistan and Iraq needed to be stopped in its tracks a long time ago.
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Pies4shaw
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Post by Pies4shaw »

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David
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Post by David »

It really does seem like Biden is on track to win, doesn't it? Obviously we're all reluctant to call it after being burnt by 2016, but I'm not sure I can see how Trump can win it from here. Looking increasingly possible he may not even get his supreme court pick in in time to steal the election for him (with several Republican senators out of action due to COVID-19).
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Pies4shaw
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Post by Pies4shaw »

I think they'll get their Supreme Court pick up, even if they have to kill half the Senate with COVID.

It's probably not electorally good for him to get his Supreme Court pick before the election - it seems from the polls like only about a third of voters support that, so unless there is something really weird about the demographic it probably won't assist him. Obviously, the Republican machinery will do everything they can to get that done, anyway.
partypie
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Post by partypie »

Is Trump’s recent behaviour a side effect of medication like dexamethasone.? I’ve heard it can make you feel like a god. He said he felt better than he has for years.
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Post by Tannin »

^ I doubt it, Partypie. He is perfectly capable of deluded thought at the best of times.
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Post by Tannin »

Pies4shaw wrote:https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/biden-s-national-lead-over-trump-jumps-14-points-after-n1242018

This is an interesting set of numbers. Fiverthirtyeight.com rates the NBC/WSJ poll as an "A-" (meaning it's reasonably fair, etc). It was conducted jointly by a Democratic pollster and a Republican pollster. The poll is conducted about monthly and the results since June have been Biden +9, Biden +11, Biden +9, Biden +8 and now Biden +14. The error margin for this poll is said to be +/- 3.5%. So, Biden could, perhaps, be doing as "poorly" as +10.5 or as well as + 17.5.
My guess is that these numbers reflect the state of play after Trump's appallingly bad performance during the debate but before the fact of his infection filtered through. He will get a bump for sure, even though his organisation is doing its level best to piss away all that public opinion benefit with obvious lies and crass stupidities. (Even more crass than usual, I mean.) I'm estimating the Biden advantage as more like 5 points now - down from 8 before the debate and 11 or so after the debate. It is reasonable to expect the Biden advantage to go back up to 8 points or so by polling day. That's where it's been for a very long time, and is very likely where it will return to.
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Post by Jezza »

partypie wrote:Is Trump’s recent behaviour a side effect of medication like dexamethasone.? I’ve heard it can make you feel like a god. He said he felt better than he has for years.
It's possible.

In my own experience taking a similar corticosteroid, I remember feeling euphoric, suffering mood swings and difficult sleeping.
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Post by Jezza »

David wrote:It really does seem like Biden is on track to win, doesn't it? Obviously we're all reluctant to call it after being burnt by 2016, but I'm not sure I can see how Trump can win it from here. Looking increasingly possible he may not even get his supreme court pick in in time to steal the election for him (with several Republican senators out of action due to COVID-19).
I'm very wary of the polls. This particular poll seemed to over sample Democrats.

Clinton led by 14 points in 2016 when the Access Hollywood tape surfaced (just prior to the second debate).

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-hilla ... ationally/
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Post by Jezza »

I'm thinking of doing a detailed state-by-state preview of the key battleground states in the lead up to the election.

So I'm going to look at previous results, specific counties to keep an eye on, polling trends, party registration figures and etc.

What do others think?
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Tannin
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Post by Tannin »

I Think you will find a way to predict a clear Trump win, no matter how hard you have to work at it.
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Jezza
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Post by Jezza »

^ I take that as a no? ;)
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Post by partypie »

Jezza wrote:I'm thinking of doing a detailed state-by-state preview of the key battleground states in the lead up to the election.

So I'm going to look at previous results, specific counties to keep an eye on, polling trends, party registration figures and etc.

What do others think?
I’d love to see it
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Post by David »

I think that’d be very interesting!
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Post by stui magpie »

I'd like to have a look at it, I'm fascinated how this will play out.
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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