2020 US election results

[David]

The only thing I’d be worried about is that his Arizona lead seems to be contracting as more votes come in (and it was said somewhere that the early results were in more Democratic-voting areas). But Biden may well not need it. With Michigan and Wisconsin in the bag, he’s already essentially up by three goals with five minutes to play.

[think positive]

as a collingwood supporter you should no better than to use that statement!

[Tannin]

Worst case, Trump gets 265 (that's giving him Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) leaving Biden with 270 and a win despite the Republican gerrymander.

Nationwide, Biden is 3,000,000 votes in front and getting further ahead as counting continues.

[stui magpie]

Whether President Donald Trump ultimately wins or loses a second term, Tuesday's election proved something beyond the shadow of a doubt: He has broken modern politics. Or, to put a finer point on it: Trump has exposed the way we poll, analyze and predict election outcomes.

Heading into Election Day, every shred of available evidence suggested that Trump was likely to lose, and lose convincingly, to former Vice President Joe Biden. The incumbent trailed by high single-digits in national polling. He was behind in polling averages in virtually every swing state. He was being drastically outspent on television in the vast majority of battlegrounds. Professional campaign handicappers were unanimous: This election was likely to border on landslide territory for Biden.
And yet, that's not what happened.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/04/poli ... index.html

[Lazza]

[watt price tully]

Whether President Donald Trump ultimately wins or loses a second term, Tuesday's election proved something beyond the shadow of a doubt: He has broken modern politics. Or, to put a finer point on it: Trump has exposed the way we poll, analyze and predict election outcomes.

Heading into Election Day, every shred of available evidence suggested that Trump was likely to lose, and lose convincingly, to former Vice President Joe Biden. The incumbent trailed by high single-digits in national polling. He was behind in polling averages in virtually every swing state. He was being drastically outspent on television in the vast majority of battlegrounds. Professional campaign handicappers were unanimous: This election was likely to border on landslide territory for Biden.
And yet, that's not what happened.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/04/poli ... index.html

I'm sure if Trump loses he'll take it on the chin, bow out with dignity, humility and good grace.

[David]

[Lazza]

Whether President Donald Trump ultimately wins or loses a second term, Tuesday's election proved something beyond the shadow of a doubt: He has broken modern politics. Or, to put a finer point on it: Trump has exposed the way we poll, analyze and predict election outcomes.

Heading into Election Day, every shred of available evidence suggested that Trump was likely to lose, and lose convincingly, to former Vice President Joe Biden. The incumbent trailed by high single-digits in national polling. He was behind in polling averages in virtually every swing state. He was being drastically outspent on television in the vast majority of battlegrounds. Professional campaign handicappers were unanimous: This election was likely to border on landslide territory for Biden.
And yet, that's not what happened.

Very true. However does it show that dishonest Trump supporters lied to pollsters? That they were hard to poll due to where they lived? Or does it mean that closed ended poll questions don’t really work for Trump supporters?
Or maybe all three?

[Pies4shaw]

[Lazza]

[David]

Yeah, I think the latter is a genuine concern, particularly with Trump yesterday claiming victory.

[Sicks Bux]

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

I reckon Pennsylvania is gonna be the back breaker for Trump.

"We all get taken out in a box, love." - Paul Keating

[Pies4shaw]

Whether President Donald Trump ultimately wins or loses a second term, Tuesday's election proved something beyond the shadow of a doubt: He has broken modern politics. Or, to put a finer point on it: Trump has exposed the way we poll, analyze and predict election outcomes.

Heading into Election Day, every shred of available evidence suggested that Trump was likely to lose, and lose convincingly, to former Vice President Joe Biden. The incumbent trailed by high single-digits in national polling. He was behind in polling averages in virtually every swing state. He was being drastically outspent on television in the vast majority of battlegrounds. Professional campaign handicappers were unanimous: This election was likely to border on landslide territory for Biden.
And yet, that's not what happened.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/04/poli ... index.html

Someone else posted this link yesterday and I didn't have time to comment. In short, that article is a typical overstatement by the media of the very kind that fivethirtyeight cautions against, repeatedly. The polls had Biden ahead and that made him a "favourite" but, so far, the only State that has been outside the fivethirtyeight's projected range is Florida (and, frankly, not by much - fivethirtyeight was "surprised" by the result as a distinct from its other categories of "very surprised" or "had our head blown off by the result"). If you look at the probability-based assessment that fivethirtyeight uses, rather than the stupid "winner takes all" assessments the media makes on the polling, you'll see that things are about where they said they would be.

I do encourage people to look at their analysis and think about it - it is, so far as I can tell, not afflicted by any bias they bring and it is very coherent as a means of explaining and understanding how the voting works, State by State.

When it boils down to it, the States that fivethirtyeight expected to be the likely ones to decide the election were (in order of decreasing likelihood of being the tipping point) Pennsylvania (which they thought would be the likely tipping point, one way or the other), Florida (which produced a "surprise" - but by no means ridiculous - result), Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia and Nevada.

I think one of the things that confuses people with the Electoral College system is that it is, in the overwhelming majority of electorates, a "winner takes all" system. That means that a small fraction of votes consistently across the country can be the difference between a "landslide" and what we presently see.

The difficulty with forecasting in this system is that a tiny sampling error in the forecast can mean a massive change in outcome. The perception that the forecast was "bad" is then magnified because no-one focuses on the bits the forecasters got right.

[Pies4shaw]

Pennsylvania. As expected, far more uncounted votes here than elsewhere, mostly mail votes that should be quite Democratic-leaning, though. There are too many outstanding ballots for us to be in the endgame where we can game out exact scenarios, but in counties that have completed reporting, Biden looks to be hitting the targets he needs. Even with the Trump campaign filing a number of lawsuits, the margin is tightening quickly enough that I think this belongs in Lean Biden.

I reckon Pennsylvania is gonna be the back breaker for Trump.

"We all get taken out in a box, love." - Paul Keating

I don't predict such things - but, reading the Trump messaging (and tweeting), it's tolerably clear he'd like the vote-counting in Pennsylvania to cease, forthwith. That isn't because he thinks he is going to win running away.

[stui magpie]

Worst case, Trump gets 265 (that's giving him Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) leaving Biden with 270 and a win despite the Republican gerrymander.

Actually, as it sits right now, Biden is on 253 and Trump 214.

If Trump gets Georiga (16), Nth Carolina (15), Pennsylvania (20) and Alaska (3), he's on 268.

If Biden gets Nevada (6) and Arizona(11) that gives him the 170.

But some of these seats could still go either way.