Coronavirus 3 - Al Pacino's turn to mumble

[watt price tully]

Molino is a fine Education Minister and a fine replacement for the interim. Victoria has had to put money back into education that was cut by the libs (TAFE was cut badly in the short time the Libs were in)

[stui magpie]

Actually Victoria probably leads the country with respect to time to be seen including ambulance times for Acute Health presentations which this would fit under.
Andrews has pumped heaps into acute health: it leads the country

I would be happy if that was right, simply because he totally neglected health in his first term. I'll reserve judgement but my first inclination is to call bullshit.

[eddiesmith]

It’s lucky Dan wasn’t at his mothers house, he’d probably still be waiting for an Ambulance

[Pies4shaw]

In Victoria, 12 days in a row of no new community cases, 6 active cases (including 2 international arrivals who tested positive recently) and no-one in hospital with COVID.

[stui magpie]

It’s lucky Dan wasn’t at his mothers house, he’d probably still be waiting for an Ambulance

Apparently CCTV footage shows a stooped figure with a garden hose near the front steps just before sunrise.

[watt price tully]

Actually Victoria probably leads the country with respect to time to be seen including ambulance times for Acute Health presentations which this would fit under.
Andrews has pumped heaps into acute health: it leads the country

I would be happy if that was right, simply because he totally neglected health in his first term. I'll reserve judgement but my first inclination is to call bullshit.

Yes bullshit is the operative word with your post. Andrews did not “totally” neglect acute health in his first term. That is sheer nonsense.

[stui magpie]

Yep, cos you were in a position to know, working on the frontline.

[watt price tully]

Yep, cos you were in a position to know, working on the frontline.

No, you used the word “totally” and that is utter bullshit.

But I do know that there were more nurses in ED’s because his government introduced mandatory nurse patient ratio’s which included ED’s and ICU environments.

Over the years from when I first started there were more staff: I used to work with one per shift now there are two per shift and more admin staff to take the load off (no where near enough) and more medical staff.

Most work happens in ED’s for medical reasons including short stay units in an ED whereas years ago people were admitted for medical reasons can now be adequately & well treated in shorter times for acute reasons.

Ambulance times deceased as well at the same time. While there were cuts they were not necessarily and certainly not “totally” in acute.

Victoria was ? Is the first place in the world to have mandatory nurse:patient ratios: that is solely due to the Twice elected Premier of Victoria Daniel Andrews.

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-heal ... SKBN2B212Q

A highly infectious variant of COVID-19 that has spread around the world since it was first discovered in Britain late last year is between 30% and 100% more deadly than previous dominant variants, researchers said on Wednesday.

In a study that compared death rates among people in Britain infected with the new SARS-CoV-2 variant - known as B.1.1.7 - against those infected with other variants of the COVID-19-causing virus, scientists said the new variant’s mortality rate was “significantly higher”.

The B.1.1.7 variant was first detected in Britain in September 2020, and has since also been found in more than 100 other countries.

It has 23 mutations in its genetic code - a relatively high number - and some of them have made it far more easily spread. Scientists say it is about 40%-70% more transmissible than previous dominant variants that were circulating.

Just looking at the figures reported in that study (227 deaths from 54,906 cases of the new variant), even that more problematic form of the disease only killed about 1 in every 250 of the people that got it.

[Pies4shaw]

Applying that to the US experience, I remain of the view that the US reporting of cases (not deaths) is a dramatic under-enumeration. 540,581 deaths from 29,801,814 total cases would mean that the disease is about 4 to 4 and a half times more deadly in the US than the new more deadly UK variant. That simply can't be correct. It remains much more likely that at least 40% of all those in the US have had the disease, so far (and perhaps many more than that).

[think positive]

I wonder if it costs to get tested in the US? And also the poverty rates and shit health care cover probably means deaths that didn’t need to happen.

Looking at the graphs the rates dropped steeply from when they started vaccinating, also in the UK, but I think also cities are locking down, I wonder what percentage have had the virus?

[Pies4shaw]

I'm not sure whether you saw my subsequent post, TP? Even allowing for all sorts of variables, I think it is almost certain that more than 40% of the US population has had the virus.

To follow that up - and perhaps indicate that I am not actually barking - I have just started looking at a recent report from the US CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... urden.html

It deals with, amongst other things, estimates of under-reporting in the US to December 2020 and suggests that only 1 in every 4.2 symptomatic illnesses and 1 in every 4.6 total infections (ie, including the asymptomatic ones) was reported in the US last year. If that 4.6 estimate holds good to date, that would mean that about 135 million people in the US have had the disease. That's a bit over 40% of the US population.

[Pies4shaw]

In Victoria, 13 days in a row of no new community cases, just 3 active cases and no-one in hospital with COVID.

[stui magpie]

.

Victoria was ? Is the first place in the world to have mandatory nurse:patient ratios: that is solely due to the State Secretary of the ANMF who used the Twice elected Premier of Victoria Daniel Andrews like a glove puppet.

Edited for accuracy.

[stui magpie]

I'm not sure whether you saw my subsequent post, TP? Even allowing for all sorts of variables, I think it is almost certain that more than 40% of the US population has had the virus.

To follow that up - and perhaps indicate that I am not actually barking - I have just started looking at a recent report from the US CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... urden.html

It deals with, amongst other things, estimates of under-reporting in the US to December 2020 and suggests that only 1 in every 4.2 symptomatic illnesses and 1 in every 4.6 total infections (ie, including the asymptomatic ones) was reported in the US last year. If that 4.6 estimate holds good to date, that would mean that about 135 million people in the US have had the disease. That's a bit over 40% of the US population.

All of that makes sense and in this case at leaset, you aren't barking.

Given the whole gamut of variables it's highly likely that there was whole population segments who just didn't get tested because they were asymptomatic or had mild symptoms or were just plain scared of a massive hospital bill.

You would also think that with that many people infected plus the vaccine roll out there will be a large sustainable impact on case numbers and deaths very quickly.