WA State Election Result

[eddiesmith]

Actually Gladys isn’t due at the polls until 2023, unlucky as internal ALP polling has them dropping big numbers and the opposition leader would actually lose her seat.

[David]

I think it’s a well accepted fact in Australian politics that parties in power federally tend to do poorly in state elections and vice versa. There are exceptions, of course (see Berejiklian in NSW), but I think it’s fair to surmise that a wipeout of this nature wouldn’t have happened if Morrison wasn’t in power, even if McGowan might have still won comfortably.

[watt price tully]

It’s politics 101 - (although under the current pluckers of the liberal party to study politics would cost you an arm and a leg; cnuts).

Major catastrophic events invariably assist incumbent governments no matter their political leanings.

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-15/ ... n/13249518

"That energy policy was the stupidest policy I have ever seen the Liberal Party release," Mr Thomas said.

"It makes the Alexander Downer, 'The Things That Batter' domestic violence policy, look sensible by comparison."

[David]

[Pies4shaw]

Doubt anyone on that side will be touching policy at all in WA for a while.

[David]

Haha, indeed, but something like this does have repercussions at the federal level and elsewhere. I'm sure it will be used as an in-party bludgeon against any future Turnbulls ("Remember what happened in WA").

[David]

Will be interesting to see how the upper house goes, and whether the ALP will face any resistance there.

Looks like the answer to that is ... none whatsoever.

Current legislative council seat predictions (19 seats are needed for a majority):

Labor 23
Liberal 6
National 4
Greens 1
Shooters and Fishers 1
Legalise Cannabis WA 1

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/w ... lc-results

If I were West Australian, I'd be pretty disappointed that the Greens (who formerly had to share the balance of power in the upper house with the Shooters) have been totally frozen out. A bit of accountability from the left wouldn't hurt.

[eddiesmith]

The problem for the Greens is other than their very small base, they really rely entirely on protest votes against Labor from people who would never vote LNP.

So when the people are happy with Labor then the Greens will get nothing.

[David]

[Pies4shaw]

The problem is the gerrymander. The Greens have more than double the Legislative Council votes the Nats have (49,128 to 24,020), yet will finish up with only 1 Council seat to the Nats' 4. The Greens also have more than a third as many votes as the Libs (49,128 to 145,645), yet will finish up with 1 Council seat to the Libs' 6.

The general statewide position is bad enough but when you look at the votes cast in particular upper house districts, it is quite bizarre. There are presently under 25,000 votes counted in "Mining and Pastoral" but over 220,000 counted in "North Metropolitan".

[David]

There have been some suggestions Labor might use their supermajority to make the council less demographically uneven, and to be honest I can't say I'd be opposed to it (on the same principle of why the electoral college should be abolished in the US). I think rural representation is good and important; I just don't see why they should be overrepresented.

[Pies4shaw]

Over-represented is right. According to this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_o ... e_Council) , the present value of a quota in "Mining and Pastoral" is just 3,263 votes, whereas the quota in North Metropolitan is 29,573 votes. The Greens will probably get their one Council seat in South Metropolitan, yet their vote in North Metropolitan is enough for nearly 5 seats in "Mining and Pastoral".

Looking at the likely outcome of the election, though, the ALP will do very well in even the trivially small Council electorates. In substance, there are 36 seats elected by each of the 6 upper house districts and the ALP will likely get 4 of the 6 in "Mining and Pastoral". It is possible that it will suit the ALP to maintain elements of the system that preclude the Left parties from competing with it for seats in the metro districts. I suppose the way the ALP proceeds with this depends upon its number-crunching of alternatives in a normal election and its internal shenanigans (the majority will include a large number of ALP members elected in the "rural" districts who couldn't possibly be there in a "one vote-one value" system).

[Pies4shaw]

Meanwhile, the counting of postal and absentee votes is creating further problems for the conservatives.

The Libs now lead Churchlands by only 63 votes on a two-party preferred basis (74.86% counted) and if things continue on today's trends, the ALP will win that seat.

Similarly, the ALP suddenly leads Warren-Blackwood by over 500 votes (75.9% counted). This time yesterday, that I was expected to be a Nationals retain but it looks like the ALP may win that, too.

The Libs may still just get over the line for 3 seats - but the money would have to be on 2, at the moment - and the Nats have gone from 5 likely back to 4 - and it is difficult to see them making up the gap, now.

[stui magpie]

The good news is the savings they'll make on party rooms and transport.

The new Liberal Party main office is a 3 person tent that swaps from back yard to back yard and the official party bus is now a motorcycle with a side car.