WA State Election Result

[OEP]

Can we still refer to the Liberal Party as a "Party", I believe they've lost that status.

[stui magpie]

^

A Gathering?

[Pies4shaw]

There's a good chance they'll be a "couple".

[Pies4shaw]

The Lib, L’Estrange, leads Churchlands by just 31 votes after another tranche was added this morning. I’m not sure how many votes remain to be counted but it’s going down to the wire.

[watt price tully]

[Pies4shaw]

So, the ALP did gain Warren-Blackwood - the lead is 654 votes and growing. That one was won on a swing of 14.3% from the Nats to the ALP.

Nedlands will also be called for the ALP shortly. The ALP lead there is also nearly 600 votes and has been consistently increasing.

The only seat that seems actually doubtful, on present trends, is Churchlands (see my previous post). So, it looks as if the ALP will finish with either 52 or 53 of the 59 lower house seats, the Nats definitely only 4 and the Libs either 2 or 3.

It's a little unbelievable how long it is taking to distribute the preferences from the remaining handfuls of votes. These are electorates around the 21,000 vote mark. It really shouldn't be taking this long.

[watt price tully]

It’ll start to make up for the years of the Gardiner’s empire wrecking WA. Any chance of jailing Gina Rinehart?

[Pies4shaw]

The ALP has taken the lead by just under 100 votes in further counting in Churchlands. It looks very likely that the Libs will only need the tandem back to get their members to the Legislative Assembly.

The ABC is now predicting that the ALP will win 53 of the 59 lower house seats, the Nats 4 and the Libs 2.

[Pies4shaw]

The ALP's lead in Churchlands is now out to 214 votes.

[Pies4shaw]

The ALP won Churchlands for the first time ever, with a swing of 12.2%.

So, when the official preference count is confirmed on Monday, the Libs will indeed end up with 2 seats. Just think, that's as many elected Liberal members as there are active cases of COVID in Victoria.

[Pies4shaw]

Antony Green has just published an update on progress in the Legislative Council count. He has the following:

ALP 22
Libs 7
Nats 2
Green 1
Other 1

with 3 remaining allocations still doubtful. Whatever the outcome, the ALP will control both Houses for the first time ever.

He also makes this observation, about the "Other" elected in the Council:

Several seats remain in doubt in the Legislative Council, but one of those that isn’t is the most remarkable victory.

In Mining and Pastoral Region, Wilson Tucker of the Daylight Saving Party looks certain of election despite polling only 0.19% of the vote. His victory may guarantee the abolition of group voting tickets for the Legislative Council.

https://antonygreen.com.au/2021-wa-elec ... il-update/

[stui magpie]

I liked the Premiers words to his new Parliamentary members: be humble, go back to your electorate, be good local members and don’t be arrogant.

Did I read he declared himself Treasurer as well as Premier?

[watt price tully]

I liked the Premiers words to his new Parliamentary members: be humble, go back to your electorate, be good local members and don’t be arrogant.

Did I read he declared himself Treasurer as well as Premier?

Yes but he did in a humble manner

[stui magpie]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdZ5wY9XxdA

[Pies4shaw]

The count in the Legislative Assembly has been finalized. Antony Green has taken an in-depth look at the final two-party preferred numbers. They are, on any view, startling:

https://antonygreen.com.au/final-two-pa ... -election/

The big take away is probably this:

Labor has won 12 seats with two-party preferred percentage above 80%, 35 above 70%, and 47 of Labor’s 53 seats recorded two-party percentages above 60%.

To achieve a majority in the Legislative Assembly at the 2025 election, the Liberal and National Parties need to gain 24 seats on a uniform swing of 23.5%.