Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

[Rosolino_Leone]

...
I predict there will be 4 draws in total this season, Essendon V Hawthorn was my pick in rd1 in which I missed a cool collect of $2500 by only 1 point. I had another $50 on either team to win by under 15.5 points which I turned into $130 making a small profit of $30
...

So you're saying there is a market available for margin under 15.5 (minus draw), not caring about which side wins?

...
Hmmmm, so the average score for both teams score is 58. Very interesting. Exactly my predicted score for both teams, what a coincidence...

I'll be extremely surprised if you get the exact scores correct. I think there's an exact scores market too.

Yep either team under 15.5 is available

WOW that blew up in my face, who expected an open fast paced high scoring thriller?

[K]

...
Yep either team under 15.5 is available

WOW that blew up in my face, who expected an open fast paced high scoring thriller?

Yeah... I wasn't convinced by the weather argument. (It needs to be raining during the game.) But I was more convinced by the low scores over the last year from these two sides.

The total score under 150.5 bet lasted until 3 1/2 minutes before 3QT!
Oh, well... For the record, the total at the end was 191 points.


R_Leone, over your entire betting life, are you ahead of the bookies or behind?? (This is the question I ask all punters.)

[K]

sb Minor Premiership 2021

Richmond 3.60
Port 4.00
Geelong 7.00
WC, WB 10.00
Brisbane 12.00
Melbourne 15.00
Sydney 19.00
St. K 21.00
Collingwood 23.00
Freo, GWS 51.00
GC 67.00
Carlton 81.00
Adelaide, Hawthorn 101.00
Essendon 251.00
North 501

...................................

sb To make Top 8

Richmond 1.08
Port 1.10
Geelong 1.17
Brisbane 1.36
WC, WB 1.40
St. K 1.91
Melbourne 2.00
Collingwood 2.10
Sydney 2.75
Freo 2.88
Carlton, GWS 3.00
GC 4.20
Adelaide, Hawthorn 6.00
Essendon 8.50
North 15.00

[K]

After 1 game in R4...

sb To Make the Top 8

Port, Richmond 1.14
Geelong 1.20
WC 1.22
WB 1.28
Brisbane 1.40
Sydney 1.50
Melbourne 1.72
Collingwood 2.37
Carlton 2.80
St K 3.00
Adelaide, Freo, GWS 4.20
GC 5.00
Hawthorn 6.50
Essendon 7.00
North 26.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

Port 1.72
Richmond, Geelong 1.83
WC, WB 2.10
Sydney 2.30
Brisbane 2.80
Melbourne 4.00
Collingwood 7.50
Carlton 9.00
St K 10.00
Adelaide 13.00
Freo, Hawthorn 15.00
GC, GWS 19.00
Essendon 36.00
North 101.00

[Magpietothemax]

After 1 game in R4...

sb To Make the Top 8

Port, Richmond 1.14
Geelong 1.20
WC 1.22
WB 1.28
Brisbane 1.40
Sydney 1.50
Melbourne 1.72
Collingwood 2.37
Carlton 2.80
St K 3.00
Adelaide, Freo, GWS 4.20
GC 5.00
Hawthorn 6.50
Essendon 7.00
North 26.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

Port 1.72
Richmond, Geelong 1.83
WC, WB 2.10
Sydney 2.30
Brisbane 2.80
Melbourne 4.00
Collingwood 7.50
Carlton 9.00
St K 10.00
Adelaide 13.00
Freo, Hawthorn 15.00
GC, GWS 19.00
Essendon 36.00
North 101.00

Us to make top 4...7.50... wow...i would need odds of 750 to be tempted to place a bet.

[K]

MTTM, hours before the GWS game, we were 1.19 favourites.

I could understand being slight favourites... But 1.19... Wow.

[K]

sb To Make the Top 8

WB 1.10
Port 1.14
Richmond 1.17
Melbourne 1.22
WC 1.28
Sydney 1.33
Geelong 1.36
Brisbane 1.83
Carlton 2.40
St K 2.80
Collingwood 3.50
Adelaide 3.60
GWS 3.75
Freo 4.33
Essendon 6.50
GC, Hawthorn 9.00
North 67.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

Port 1.62
WB 1.67
Richmond 1.91
Geelong, WC 2.30
Melbourne, Sydney 2.40
Brisbane 5.00
Carlton 7.00
St K 8.00
Adelaide, Collingwood 11.00
GWS 13.00
Freo 15.00
Essendon, GC, Hawthorn 26.00
North 151.00

[K]

Collingwood's odds are becoming long...

sb To Make the Top 8

WB 1.06
Port 1.07
Melbourne, Richmond 1.10
WC 1.20
Geelong 1.36
Brisbane, Sydney 1.53
Freo 3.00
GWS 3.20
Carlton 3.40
St K 3.50
Collingwood 4.00
Adelaide 6.00
Essendon 8.00
Hawthorn 13.00
GC 15.00
North 101.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

WB 1.45
Port 1.57
Richmond 1.67
Melbourne 1.91
WC 2.10
Geelong 2.75
Brisbane, Sydney 3.50
Freo 10.00
GWS 11.00
Carlton, St K 15.00
Collingwood 19.00
Adelaide 21.00
Essendon, GC 41.00
Hawthorn 51.00
North 301.00

[David]

Crazy that St Kilda's odds are so short compared to Adelaide's and Essendon's. Has anyone been watching them play this year? One great quarter and a half against West Coast does not a finals contender make.

[piedys]

Collingwood's odds are becoming long...

They are drifting so far out to sea, that we are just about to call the coastguard to go find them by dinner time on Anzac Day...

[K]

We'll win this and win it well.
The $1.90 for us at the line (-11.5), will be the easiest money you'll ever make.

We're better than 1-5 and that'll be rectified over the next month.

Hmm...

We are "only" fourth favourite for the Spoon:

North 1.14
Hawthorn 17.00
GC 19.00
Collingwood 21.00
Adelaide, Essendon 26.00
...

[K]

sb To Make the Top 8

WB 1.02
Port 1.03
Melbourne 1.05
Richmond 1.10
Geelong 1.14
Brisbane, WC 1.30
Sydney 2.25
Freo 2.50
Carlton 3.50
GWS 4.50
Essendon 5.00
St K 5.50
Collingwood 6.00
Adelaide 7.00
Hawthorn 11.00
GC 13.00
North 101.00

...................................

sb To Make the Top 4

WB 1.30
Port 1.33
Melbourne 1.40
Geelong, Richmond 2.10
Brisbane 3.10
WC 3.20
Sydney 6.00
Freo 10.00
GWS 21.00
Carlton, Essendon, St K 26.00
Adelaide, GC, Collingwood 34.00
Hawthorn 51.00
North 301.00

[Skids]

We're a bit shorter on Ladbrokes. 4/1 for the 8 and 25/1 for the top 4.

I wouldn't touch top 4 if it was anything less than 66/1, even then, it'd be $10 for a laugh.
5/1 for the top 8... I might just whack a pineapple on that as I reckon that'll be the best we'll see.

The one I found irresistible, was the San Francisco Giants @ 100/1 to win the World Series. $50 on that for a nice little return, thank you very much.

Bet of the round (besides Pies at the line) for me, is Hawthorn at the line (+9.5) @ $1.90. St Kilda are garbage and how they are favourites is beyond me.

[Skids]

Couple of bets placed this morning.

A multi; Pies, Swans & Hawks.. all at the line for a return of $7.56 per unit.

All Jeed Up - Race 7 #5 at Beaudesert today. I have a small share in this bloke and he's been racing well this prep. Up in class & distance, the trainer tells me he's been training the house down since his last start win. A good E/W chance at 14/1

I put another $20 @ 100/1 on the SF Giants in the MLB, they're travelling pretty nicely from what I've seen and IMO, the 100's is way overs. Thinking I may see some value in a partial 'cash out' later in the season.

In the last full MLB season, in 2019, 6 of the 10 teams that were in postseason position on April 29 made the playoffs. There’s nothing statistically magical about the Giants being a half game ahead of the Dodgers rather than a half game behind, but it is symbolic: the Giants are playing good baseball, and it looks real, a fact that is backed up by their +24 run differential, which is tied for second in all of MLB.

https://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2021/ ... st-dodgers

[Skids]

Kiss of death for Pies & Hawks ... oops

Luckily, I jagged 2% of the $23k quartet in the last at Ascot, $6 for $430... thank you very much. Put more on Giants and a little on the Astros at $18.