Coronavirus 3 - Al Pacino's turn to mumble

[Dave The Man]

How will Goverment know IF you used QR Code or not?

[eddiesmith]

So 1 person has died from how many million vaccinations?

With 20,000 covid cases, over 800 died.

So as the government says, the risk of Covid is far greater to over 50s than the risk of blood clots.

Meanwhile for us young and fit members of society, the risk of a blood clot is far greater than the non existent risk of covid. So of course if the oldies want the young people to get vaccinated to protect them, then the current program is the smartest move.

All the armchair experts demanded J&J, that quieted down when it was found to have the same problems...

[stui magpie]

Another eight people have been hit by the AstraZeneca blood clots. That takes the total toll to 41, with one dead as a result and another currently in intensive care. The new cases, like the previous ones, are of all ages, but mostly over 50. This "it's safe if you are over 50" message the government keeps putting out is a flat lie. It is demonstrably not safe.

Well it's safer for over 50's than getting Covid.

I've had it and am going back for seconds when I can.

How many dead from clots out of the tens of millions of shots around the world?

[Tannin]

Wrong. Flat wrong both of you. The risk of catching Covid in this state, and in most other places too, is near enough to zero as makes no difference. The risk of getting the awful blood clots is 40 in 2 million - i.e., getting quite significant.

(Note that the relevant number of vaccinations is the number as of about two weeks ago - that's how long the clots take to come on - not as of today.)

[swoop42]

I'm not all to familiar with QR codes but it would seem that the only QR app that one can use is the Service Victoria one.

Well I hate to break it to the government but not everyone craves the latest and greatest smart phone and my old Samsung isn't compatible with the current version of the app on the Google play store.

You can be sure I will not be alone and then there are people without smart phones like many elderly.

If they want people to use this app then they need to make sure it is backwards compatible for older android devices.

[stui magpie]

How will Goverment know IF you used QR Code or not?

They won't. It's to help with contact tracing.

If you check in using the QR code everywhere you go, if you catch Covid they can quickly check everywhere you've been because it's a single Vic database. You don't have to remember, they don't have to rely on bank statements or receipts.

Then they can contact everyone else who checked in around the same times at the same places as you and tell them to get tested and isolate ASAP rather than relying on those people to read news and check exposure sites online.

NSW had a single statewide QR code system running while we were still in lockdown 2, Victoria finally got theirs working properly and made it mandatory 2 weeks ago. That's poor.

It's been clearly demonstrated again that Victoria is not capable of containing an outbreak without locking down. Not doubting the effort of the contact tracers but you have to query the direction, systems and processes they're following. If people use the QR code checkin it makes contact tracing quicker, more effieicent and more accurate, meaning less lockdowns.

[stui magpie]

Wrong. Flat wrong both of you. The risk of catching Covid in this state, and in most other places too, is near enough to zero as makes no difference. The risk of getting the awful blood clots is 40 in 2 million - i.e., getting quite significant.

(Note that the relevant number of vaccinations is the number as of about two weeks ago - that's how long the clots take to come on - not as of today.)

1in a million chance of death.

So what do you do if Covid does get in to Tassie? Squawk loudly blaming Morrison or get vaccinated?
As far as I'm concerned anyone who chooses not to get vaccinated, unless they have clear medical advice, can take their own chances. Didn't mrs Tannin get the Clot Shot?

[Tannin]

So as the government says, the risk of Covid is far greater to over 50s than the risk of blood clots.

If and only if you assume a stupidly unlikely risk of actually catching Covid. The comparison above is ridiculous. The correct way to calculate the odds is as follows:

Option A: you decide to wait for a safer vaccine.
Option B: you decide to take the risk and have the AZ vaccine now.

Risk of option A = risk risk of catching Covid in the meantime * risk of getting seriously ill with Covid if you do get it. That works out to 0 * 0.005. = zero (For simplicity I have assumed a 5 in 100 Covid serious illness rate. Feel free to use a bigger number if you wish, it makes no difference, as the answer is still zero.)

Risk of option B = (risk of getting the AZ shot * risk of blood clots) + (risk of catching Covid in the meantime * risk of getting seriously ill with Covid.) That is (100% * .0005%) + (0 * 33% * 0.05%) = 0.0005 + 0 = 0.0005. That is more than zero. Note thata single AZ vaccine only reduces your Covid risk by 33%. Even after both AZ shots you are still only about 70% safe. Pfizer is much more effective, in the high 90s.

I'll have the good one. Same one the Prime Minister thought he was important enough to get.

[Tannin]

It won't get here. If it does, it certainly won't get into this corner of the state. And if by some astronomically unlikely chance it does, it still has to get onto our property, which it can't.

Morrison has 40 million Pfizer doses on order (expected in a couple of months) and more millions of Modena on the way as well. Additionally, it is likely that the AZ people are working on ways to fix the blood clot problem, so we might see a revised AZ vaccine soon. Or a proper screening system (one that actually works, I mean). There is enough good vaccine on order to give the entire population two doses each. I'll have the good one.

[stui magpie]

You're justifying being a wuss rather than being honest about it.

You won't be getting any "good" vaccine any time soon, so enjoy extended isolation in your little corner of tassie.

[stui magpie]

In other news, 2 of the cases of "fleeting transmission" are false positives.

Two cases of COVID-19 previously linked to Melbourne's growing outbreak have been reclassified as false positives, the Department of Health has said.

A woman previously understood to have acquired the virus at a display home in Mickleham and a man who was thought to have contracted COVID-19 at the Brighton Beach Hotel have been removed from the state's official case count.

The cases had been cited by health officials as two examples of at least half a dozen where the virus was transmitted through "fleeting contact" between strangers.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-03/ ... /100189226

[Pies4shaw]

From the ABC blog:

Two cases of COVID-19 previously linked to Melbourne's growing outbreak have been reclassified as false positives, the Department of Health has said.

A woman previously understood to have acquired the virus at a display home in Mickleham and a man who was thought to have contracted COVID-19 at the Brighton Beach Hotel have been removed from the state's official case count.

The cases had been cited by health officials as two examples of at least half a dozen where the virus was transmitted through "fleeting contact" between strangers.

The spread of the Kappa strain of COVID-19 is one of the reasons behind Melbourne's extended lockdown, which was due to end tonight but will run for another seven days.

As a result of the reclassification by the state's Expert Review Panel, all exposure sites linked to the two cases will be stood down.

This includes every exposure site in Anglesea, along the state's Surf Coast, the department said.

"Brighton Beach Hotel and the Metricon display home will remain exposure sites because they are linked to other cases," the department said.

[eddiesmith]

Their claims sounded completely ridiculous and they're having to backtrack very, very quickly.

Yet still Merlino kept repeating the false claim it's the most contagious strain we've seen yet...

4,000+ close contacts, 350+ sites, 60 cases, wow, so so contagious...

[Tannin]

Nonsense Stui, and you know it. We have 40 million doses of the superior Pfizer vaccine either already here or on order for delivery this year. That alone is enough to vaccinate every single Australian twice.

But we also have 20 million Modena doses on order for delivery this year. Added to the Pfizer already mentioned, that is enough to vaccinate every adult Australian three times. And subject to regulatory approval, we have 51 million does on Novavax on order.

In other words, we have superior vaccines already ordered in quantities sufficient to vaccinate every adult Australia somewhere between three times and five times without even counting the flawed, less effective AZ vaccine at all.

(And WTF are they going to do with all those tens of millions of surplus doses once every Australian is vaccinated? Give them to a poor country? I hope so. But with this mob, who can say?)

[stui magpie]

^

But who says you're going to have access to it?

While you're hiding out in isolation, the rest of us will be vaccinated.

Seriously, I didn't think you would be such a wuss. Just look at the vaccination rates using AZ in the UK and how many people died.