Coronavirus 3 - Al Pacino's turn to mumble

[Pies4shaw]

^

27,000 cases per day and 27 deaths per day

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Any Australian leader who tried opening up while having those numbers would be shouted out of office, tarred and feathered and drawn and quartered. Interesting the daily deaths graph very much mirrors last summer

Just an update on the UK trends.

The 7-day rolling average of new cases is now up over 32,000 per day. The 7-day rolling average of deaths is presently 33 per day.

The number of new cases is more than 15 times as high as it was at its most recent low (rolling average of 1,952 new cases per day on 5 May 2021). That rolling average of new cases has doubled in 14 days (16,323 on 28 June).

The number of new deaths is still very low, having regard to past UK highs (7 day rolling average of 1,250 deaths per day recorded on 23 January 2021), but is almost 6 times as high as it was at its most recent low (rolling average of 5 new deaths per day on 22 May). It is also double what it was on 23/24 June.

Usually high COVID-associated death rates are seen when the number of hospitalised cases reaches very high levels. In that situation, two things happen - first, not everyone who has COVID gets the ICU or similar support they need because resources have to be rationed; secondly, people start dying at higher than usual rates from non-COVID crises because the available emergency resources are taken up by and large by COVID cases. At the moment, the UK reports 417 serious or critical cases. Hopefully, the numbers remain at those low levels.

[Pies4shaw]

The PM and Gladys have jointly announced some additional financial support during the NSW lockdown. In that context, Gladys mentioned "the unlikelihood of the lockdown finishing on Friday and the numbers speak for themselves".

[stui magpie]

Those UK numbers are ridiculous.

Roughly weighted for population that would be the equivalent of us getting 10,000 cases and 10 deaths per day.

[Pies4shaw]

Except that, because of the delay between cases and deaths, you can't perform that calculation and get any meaningful result.

If it helps to say, the average death rate of reported cases in the UK over the whole of the pandemic from its commencement is, broadly speaking, 1 in 40. My preliminary view is that the death rate is probably going to be shown to be about a tenth of that for the present Delta variant, at least, in the post-vaccine UK environment, once the numbers are in. I say that because a quick comparison of today's deaths with the cases a fortnight ago would have the figure at, say, 1 death in every 500 cases. That's too crude to be a reliable measure (deaths "trail"), so I didn't post it earlier on - but it is a little bit better than dividing today's deaths by today's cases. So long as the number of cases is increasing exponentially (and for, say, 3 to 4 weeks after that exponentiation stops and cases level out), it just isn't a valid calculation.

[stui magpie]

With only just over 50% of the population fully vaccinated and the Delta strain proving to not only be more infectious but hitting young people much harder, the death rate could really start to climb if they aren't very lucky.

It's a very different attitude to risk than what we've had. Having got through 2020 (albeit with Victoria bearing the brunt of lock downs) with less Covid deaths than an average flu season, we seem to expect that is how it has to stay. That's an unrealistic expectation but the UK is the other side of the coin.

On vaccinations, took mum up to the GP's tonight to get her 2nd AZ shot. I sat in the car while she was inside, all done fully vaccinated.

I get my second AZ shot Saturday morning

[eddiesmith]

Here we go again for another 3 month lockdown. I really wish they would slam shut the borders earlier. It certainly adds extra fuel to the conspiracy nutters' theories.

Still wouldn't have made any difference to the new cases, especially as they came back over a week ago and Victorians are still entitled to come home. They also came back from an area that was already shut off.

[eddiesmith]

With only just over 50% of the population fully vaccinated and the Delta strain proving to not only be more infectious but hitting young people much harder, the death rate could really start to climb if they aren't very lucky.

It's a very different attitude to risk than what we've had. Having got through 2020 (albeit with Victoria bearing the brunt of lock downs) with less Covid deaths than an average flu season, we seem to expect that is how it has to stay. That's an unrealistic expectation but the UK is the other side of the coin.

On vaccinations, took mum up to the GP's tonight to get her 2nd AZ shot. I sat in the car while she was inside, all done fully vaccinated.

I get my second AZ shot Saturday morning

It's going to be interesting, nowhere has gotten near the standard that Australian premiers are calling for before no longer resorting to lockdowns.

[Dave The Man]

The PM and Gladys have jointly announced some additional financial support during the NSW lockdown. In that context, Gladys mentioned "the unlikelihood of the lockdown finishing on Friday and the numbers speak for themselves".

and PM Shit on Victoria but do everything to help NSW

[Pies4shaw]

^ Well, it certainly wasn't a good look for those who would prefer that governments not play politics over the pandemic, was it?

[Woods Of Ypres]

The PM and Gladys have jointly announced some additional financial support during the NSW lockdown. In that context, Gladys mentioned "the unlikelihood of the lockdown finishing on Friday and the numbers speak for themselves".

and PM Shit on Victoria but do everything to help NSW

yep. Fed Gov does fk all for Victoria, we might as well become independent

[eddiesmith]

The PM and Gladys have jointly announced some additional financial support during the NSW lockdown. In that context, Gladys mentioned "the unlikelihood of the lockdown finishing on Friday and the numbers speak for themselves".

and PM Shit on Victoria but do everything to help NSW

By giving NSW the same package Victoria got then extending it when their lockdown went longer?

The entire country kept Victoria afloat for their 6 month lockdown so it's pretty rich to turn around now and say they did nothing for Victoria. Jobkeeper and the Covid supplement were both supposed to end a lot earlier but had to be extended solely because of Victoria;s giant **** up.

This package NSW have had extended was first done for Victoria just last month and like Victoria, nothing was offered for the first week, because they can't go throwing money at every minor lockdown, it's just not feasible.

[stui magpie]

The constant public carping, blame laying and blatant politicking from Merlino etc toward the Federal Government make it very difficult for them to pick up the phone and try to negotiate.

[Pies4shaw]

In Victoria, 1 new local case and 1 new case acquired overseas (currently in HQ).
- 33,037 test results were received

The Government says that "The new locally-acquired case is a known Primary Close Contact in isolation during their infectious period."

[stui magpie]

[Dave The Man]

In Victoria, 1 new local case and 1 new case acquired overseas (currently in HQ).
- 33,037 test results were received

The Government says that "The new locally-acquired case is a known Primary Close Contact in isolation during their infectious period."

Now 7 New Cases. Shows the Borders need to be Closed and No One Allowed IN and out of NSW.

With what Happening in NSW Victoria could be in Lockdown in next few days