Coronavirus 3 - Al Pacino's turn to mumble

[Pies4shaw]

In Victoria, 13 new local cases (that includes the Mildura one announced yesterday morning, of course) and 1 new case acquired overseas (currently in HQ).
- 54,839 test results were received

The Government says that "The new locally-acquired cases are all linked to the current outbreaks."

[What'sinaname]

^ I don't think it's going to go well in the UK, Dave. In the last week, new cases are up 42% on the previous week (from about 210,000 to nearly 300,000) and deaths are up 48% (from 192 to 284). The 7-day rolling average of new cases per day is doubling each fortnight. It reached a "low" of 1,952 per day" on 5 May 2021. By 19 May, it was still in a trough - around 2,270 cases per day. On 2 June, it was 3,606. On 16 June, it was 7,888. On 30 June, it was 18,899. On 14 July, it was 34,585. By 17 July, it is 42,475. Those are "smoothed" numbers, of course - that's the very point of using a rolling average. The actual daily number for 17 July (the most recent report from the UK) was over 12,000 higher than that rolling average - 54,674.

It's a strange time to be relaxing restrictions.

Do new infections matter when everyone is vaccinated? It would be hospitalisations / deaths as a lot of people will get the virus but wont be affected because of the vaccine.

Just like flu, they don't test and report on the number of people who catch the flu virus every year - it would be astronomic.

[stui magpie]

Lockdown likely to be extended (to absolutely no one's surprise)

A look at the exposure sites is scary, https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/exposure-site
They've added a stack of new sites overnight, most tier 1 exposure sites and some of them a week old.

it's highly probable that someone who caught Covid at one of these sites has spent time in the community while infectious.

[think positive]

^ I don't think it's going to go well in the UK, Dave. In the last week, new cases are up 42% on the previous week (from about 210,000 to nearly 300,000) and deaths are up 48% (from 192 to 284). The 7-day rolling average of new cases per day is doubling each fortnight. It reached a "low" of 1,952 per day" on 5 May 2021. By 19 May, it was still in a trough - around 2,270 cases per day. On 2 June, it was 3,606. On 16 June, it was 7,888. On 30 June, it was 18,899. On 14 July, it was 34,585. By 17 July, it is 42,475. Those are "smoothed" numbers, of course - that's the very point of using a rolling average. The actual daily number for 17 July (the most recent report from the UK) was over 12,000 higher than that rolling average - 54,674.

It's a strange time to be relaxing restrictions.

Do new infections matter when everyone is vaccinated? It would be hospitalisations / deaths as a lot of people will get the virus but wont be affected because of the vaccine.

Just like flu, they don't test and report on the number of people who catch the flu virus every year - it would be astronomic.

good question, by the looks ot lowers the chances of getting it significantly, lowers the symptoms and side effects, but some people will still end up in intensive care and some will die.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... cases.html

[What'sinaname]

good question, by the looks ot lowers the chances of getting it significantly, lowers the symptoms and side effects, but some people will still end up in intensive care and some will die.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... cases.html

which you get with every virus. Even the flu leads to intensive care and deaths.

I think this explains why UK infection rates are so high, but death rates haven't increased commensurately.

[stui magpie]

[David]

[What'sinaname]

Yes, Netherlands have new cases, but very few new deaths. The vaccine doesn't stop you getting the virus. So why the new restrictions in Netherlands?

If zero infections is the aim, then get rid of the vaccines, and hard lock down international borders. That's the only way to get zero infections.

[Pies4shaw]

Do new infections matter when everyone is vaccinated?

Probably, yes - because if enough vaccinated people get it, the pool of infections will be a breeding ground for the next dangerous mutations - but they certainly do matter when only half the population is vaccinated.

[What'sinaname]

^
Even with vaccinations, people can get infected. Case study the Netherlands.

Which is exactly what vaccines do. They don't stop you getting the virus. They tell the body how to attack the virus. The body builds resistance in the form of memory B and T cells that ocne again, go to work when the virus is carried through the lymphatic system to the lymph nodes.

But the virus gets in to the body. A vaccine isn't a force field.

[stui magpie]

That Netherlands case study is interesting. Kind of puts a pin in the balloon of the idea of "vaccine passports" and the like.

maybe, maybe not.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... therlands/

While case numbers exploded, deaths haven't. Yet. There would be a necessary lag time which hasn't been covered yet.

if nothing else the UK and Netherlands will give us good data on what it would look like. You'd expect vaccinated people to be far less likely to get seriously ill or die and also with a much lower viral load to be much less likely to transmit or infect others.

Lets see what happens.

[What'sinaname]

That Netherlands case study is interesting. Kind of puts a pin in the balloon of the idea of "vaccine passports" and the like.

maybe, maybe not.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... therlands/

While case numbers exploded, deaths haven't. Yet. There would be a necessary lag time which hasn't been covered yet.

if nothing else the UK and Netherlands will give us good data on what it would look like. You'd expect vaccinated people to be far less likely to get seriously ill or die and also with a much lower viral load to be much less likely to transmit or infect others.

Lets see what happens.

Exactly. The only way out is vaccination.

The UK approach isn't as silly as some make it out to be....at least yet. It might backfire....but they are putting trust in vaccinations which is what we do for most communicable diseases.

Jesus, we are happy to get immunised to travel overseas, so we are happy to get infected with those viruses.

[Pies4shaw]

^ Deaths lag significantly after infection. The Netherlands was down to 550 new cases a day or so under 3 weeks ago. Daily new cases are over 20 times that. We will know in a month how many extra deaths that means. The UK data I put up, above, shows almost a 50% increase in deaths in the last week. If that's from 2 to 3, it's sad but not significant. If it's 200 to 300 (as it roughly was, week on week to 17 July), it's a little more of a worry. If it goes from 4,000 to 6,000, the UK is back where it was.

Also, the focus on deaths is convenient for governments. This is a disease that causes significant morbidity. People suffer significant organ damage in many cases. Much of that is permanent. We read a bit about the "fatigue" effects of "Long COVID" - but very little is written about the people whose lives are permanently ruined by the loss of their physical capacity.

[stui magpie]

But do we have any real indication of what % of people who catch it end up with some ongoing impairment?

[Pies4shaw]

109 cases in NSW today

98, apparently: https://twitter.com/NSWHealth/status/14 ... 9548100612

Of the 98, "Fifty-four cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 17 cases were in isolation for part of their infectious period. Twenty cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of seven cases remains under investigation."

That's another way of saying that between 37 and 44 cases were infectious in the community for part or all of their infectious period.