Coronavirus 3 - Al Pacino's turn to mumble
Moderator: bbmods
Professor from the Doherty Institute is up to explain their advice to National Cabinet about vaccine thresholds.
Vaccines are a key part of the answer but not the whole. 50 and 60% coverage would mean rapidly escalating outbreaks. At 70%, lockdowns can "ease".
The "R" number for Delta is effectively double that of the original strain. She has a really good graphic that shows the combination of basic hygiene methods, vaccine and social restrictions required to stop spread at various levels of vaccination. 80% brings it, on their modeling, to just above 1 (so the outbreaks would spread but not rapidly).
Vaccines are a key part of the answer but not the whole. 50 and 60% coverage would mean rapidly escalating outbreaks. At 70%, lockdowns can "ease".
The "R" number for Delta is effectively double that of the original strain. She has a really good graphic that shows the combination of basic hygiene methods, vaccine and social restrictions required to stop spread at various levels of vaccination. 80% brings it, on their modeling, to just above 1 (so the outbreaks would spread but not rapidly).
Vaccine options - "oldest first" versus "all adults" modeled. They have produced an age/transmission matrix.
Eg, with the flu, children are the peak spreaders. With COVID, it is actually young adults. The plan now is to move emphasis from direct protection of the elderly to vaccinating the "transmitters". By vaccinating adults, you protect children (and older adults, as well).
Eg, with the flu, children are the peak spreaders. With COVID, it is actually young adults. The plan now is to move emphasis from direct protection of the elderly to vaccinating the "transmitters". By vaccinating adults, you protect children (and older adults, as well).
Young Josh is up, now. "The cost of lockdowns is very significant". Stage 4 $3.2 billion per week. Stage 3, $2.35 billion per week.
Vaccination is the way out of this crisis.
Short, sharp lockdowns are the most cost effective way of handling the virus at the current time. At 50% and 60% vaccination rates, it is 5 times as costly not to do an early lockdown.
At 50% vaccination, rates, the cost of getting onto the outbreaks early its over $500 million a week. At 80%, it's down to $140 million a week.
Until we get to 70% and above, the economic imperative is that governments must move fast to get lockdowns onto outbreaks.
Vaccination is the way out of this crisis.
Short, sharp lockdowns are the most cost effective way of handling the virus at the current time. At 50% and 60% vaccination rates, it is 5 times as costly not to do an early lockdown.
At 50% vaccination, rates, the cost of getting onto the outbreaks early its over $500 million a week. At 80%, it's down to $140 million a week.
Until we get to 70% and above, the economic imperative is that governments must move fast to get lockdowns onto outbreaks.
I expect that the Doherty Institute's slide presentation will be made available. If that happens, I'll post a link here - it is very interesting (accepting, of course, that it is just a model, not a prediction of the future).
In the meantime, here's the link to the presser on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EhN6YT9-cI
Assuming it stays up in this form, the Professor's contribution is from about 19 minutes in (be nice about that - the count is from the end of the video, not the start).
In the meantime, here's the link to the presser on youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6EhN6YT9-cI
Assuming it stays up in this form, the Professor's contribution is from about 19 minutes in (be nice about that - the count is from the end of the video, not the start).
Here are the slides the Professor spoke to today: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... =1&title=1
Here is the modelling report provided by Doherty Institute on 30 July 2021 to National Cabinet: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... =1&title=1
If it helps to say, I found the slide at page 6 of the first document to be the most interesting. It sets out a helpful summary of that which the modellers consider to be necessary to deal with the Delta strain, even at 80% vaccine coverage. In short, it represents that, by virtue of its lower reproductive rate, the original virus could be contained by Test, Trace, Isolate and Quarantine (TTIQ) alone but that Delta requires TTIQ, 80% vaccine coverage and occasional Public Health and Social Measures (ie, lockdown and like restrictions) to keep the reproduction rate below 1 (so that an outbreak ends).
Here is the modelling report provided by Doherty Institute on 30 July 2021 to National Cabinet: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... =1&title=1
If it helps to say, I found the slide at page 6 of the first document to be the most interesting. It sets out a helpful summary of that which the modellers consider to be necessary to deal with the Delta strain, even at 80% vaccine coverage. In short, it represents that, by virtue of its lower reproductive rate, the original virus could be contained by Test, Trace, Isolate and Quarantine (TTIQ) alone but that Delta requires TTIQ, 80% vaccine coverage and occasional Public Health and Social Measures (ie, lockdown and like restrictions) to keep the reproduction rate below 1 (so that an outbreak ends).
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stui magpie
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Interesting, thanks for putting those up.
Well presented and seemingly well researched data, I like that they declare that they're overestimating deaths at each point, painting somewhat of a worst case scenario in each instance rather than the sunny optimistic view.
All things going to plan we should be opened up like a mother in laws mouth by the end of summer
Well presented and seemingly well researched data, I like that they declare that they're overestimating deaths at each point, painting somewhat of a worst case scenario in each instance rather than the sunny optimistic view.
All things going to plan we should be opened up like a mother in laws mouth by the end of summer
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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pietillidie
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In the end the rain comes down, washes clean the streets of a blue sky town.
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm
Help Nick's: http://www.magpies.net/nick/bb/fundraising.htm
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David
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Well, that’s all I’m asking for: precision. When it’s safe enough to open up because enough of us have been vaccinated, then I think we can do the maths and work out whether risk of viral spread has reached a low tipping point of acceptability such that we can ride out the next outbreak without turning to lockdowns. That will be a matter for calm and informed reasoning, and there may well be reasonable disagreement about where to draw that line.
As things are now, however, these IPA guys are operating on pure ideology, as they have from the beginning, and we should thank whichever deity we prefer every day that their advice wasn’t followed.
As things are now, however, these IPA guys are operating on pure ideology, as they have from the beginning, and we should thank whichever deity we prefer every day that their advice wasn’t followed.
Last edited by David on Tue Aug 03, 2021 8:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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think positive
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stui magpie
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