Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

[think positive]

better numbers for everyone today, except maybe cairns, but gees they gotta get the wild ones under control

[Pies4shaw]

More detail on the latest Victorian cases, from the ABC blog:

All of the new cases are linked to the Hobsons Bay cluster, which was first detected when a teacher tested positive last week.

Of the new cases:

Four are students from Al-Taqwa College, where the teacher works

Three are household contacts of a confirmed case from the Wolf Café and Eatery in Altona North

One is a team member at the Newport Football Club, where the teacher's optometrist partner plays

Three are linked to the CS Square Shopping Centre in Caroline Springs

Two of those work at the Jolly Miller Café, which is very close to the Spectacle Club exposure site at the shopping centre
One works at a real estate agency where no known case has been present, but real estate worker did attend a number of exposure sites within the shopping centre.

[Pies4shaw]

Just an update on the UK, for those interested in how Delta behaves in a large population with extensive vaccine coverage and immune (that is, exposure) protection. Cases have stabilised over the last week at a bit over 185,000 new cases per week and deaths are still increasing - in the last week, 627 deaths have been reported (up almost 30% from the previous week). That's a 7-day rolling average of 90 new deaths per day (up from a rolling 7-day average of just 5 deaths per day in late May).

[think positive]

Just an update on the UK, for those interested in how Delta behaves in a large population with extensive vaccine coverage and immune (that is, exposure) protection. Cases have stabilised over the last week at a bit over 185,000 new cases per week and deaths are still increasing - in the last week, 627 deaths have been reported (up almost 30% from the previous week). That's a 7-day rolling average of 90 new deaths per day (up from a rolling 7-day average of just 5 deaths per day in late May).

Geezus. GEEZUS

[stui magpie]

And this is in their summer

[Pies4shaw]

Yes. Looking at some other substantial numbers in Europe (there is plenty more happening in other countries - but mostly in numbers that are still low enough for small changes to make huge % movements):

Spain - cases down 25% to 122,000 over the last week (deaths up 55% to 468 in the last week, presumably that will slow if numbers continue to decline).

France - cases up 6% to 158,000 over the last week (deaths up 29% to 323).

Italy - cases up 9% to 41,000 over the last week (deaths up 21% to 146 - but from a relatively low base, so that might not be a very meaningful trend).

Russia's figures are high and relatively stable - around 160,000 new cases over the last week and 5,531 deaths over the last week. To put that in perspective, 38 in every 1,000,000 Russians died of COVID in the last 7 days. Only 36 in every 1,000,000 Australians have died of COVID through the entire pandemic, so far. Russia has almost 19% of its population fully vaccinated at the moment. Australia is at about 18%.

[What'sinaname]

Only 31 positive COVID cases in 15,000 people at the Olympics....all vaccinated - infection rate of 0.2% in a non lockdown / close contact situation.

[Pies4shaw]

There's no "only" about it - it just looks small because it's a number of cases in a tiny fragment of people put together for a brief period of time. If you were to do the maths, you'd see that the numbers you have quoted amount to over 2,000 cases per million. The cases and deaths in Russia that I mentioned in my previous post were generated by about 1,000 cases per million in a week.

Meanwhile, in Victoria the Government has reported 11 new local cases and no new cases acquired overseas.
- 38,987 test results were received .

The Government says that "The 11 new locally-acquired cases are all linked, and one has been in quarantine throughout their infectious period."

[roar]

Just an update on the UK, for those interested in how Delta behaves in a large population with extensive vaccine coverage and immune (that is, exposure) protection. Cases have stabilised over the last week at a bit over 185,000 new cases per week and deaths are still increasing - in the last week, 627 deaths have been reported (up almost 30% from the previous week). That's a 7-day rolling average of 90 new deaths per day (up from a rolling 7-day average of just 5 deaths per day in late May).

Geezus. GEEZUS

Yep. Makes it hard to know what approach to take, doesn't it? News out of Israel where much of the population is vaccinated, is also not encouraging.

[Pies4shaw]

^ Cases up in Israel 60% this week (to more than 23,000) over the previous week and deaths more than 4 times as high this week as last (off a relatively low base - from 15 to 62).

[stui magpie]

Case numbers should become largely irrelevant with a highly vaccinated population. You reach a point where you stop testing and just deal with people who are sick.

Hospitalisations and deaths become the only relevant measures

[David]

So what does this mean, policy-wise? Is the hope of no more lockdowns once mass vaccination has been achieved a pipedream?

[Pies4shaw]

No, I don't think so - unless we get new variants against which the available vaccines do not provide useful protection. I do, though, think it shows that moderate levels of vaccination are useful for the people who have been vaccinated but that very high levels of vaccination are required (as the Federal Government now accepts) to control this manifestation of the disease.

It also indicates that we need to very cautious about the situation as the virus continues to throw up new variants - eg, there are a whole lot of young people getting seriously ill from the Delta variant - but until very recently they haven't even been eligible to get the vaccines. Things change. Care is required.

[Pies4shaw]

From NSW Health:

NSW recorded 283 new locally acquired cases of COVID-19 in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

One hundred and six cases were in isolation throughout their infectious period and 42 were in isolation for part of their infectious period.

Sixty-four cases were infectious in the community, and the isolation status of 71 remains under investigation. Two new cases were acquired overseas in the 24 hours to 8pm last night.

So, that's 177 "wild" cases.

[Pies4shaw]

Lockdown will be lifted tonight in regional Victoria - from the ABC blog:

From midnight tonight the lockdown will lift in regional Victoria.

The five reasons to leave home will be removed and there will be no limit on the distance regional Victorians can travel from home.

But people will only be able to travel to Melbourne for a permitted reason and must follow Melbourne restrictions.

The Premier Daniel Andrews said there have been no new coronavirus cases in regional Victoria and thousands of primary close contacts have been cleared from the regions over the last few weeks.

Schools and hospitality venues will be allowed to open tomorrow.