Top 4 predictions (betting thread)

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think positive
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Post by think positive »

Oh. Bugger
You cant fix stupid, turns out you cant quarantine it either!
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Skids
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Post by Skids »

Entriviere - Dads mate has a share in this up and comer, that I'm going to declare, the next superstar.

She goes around on Saturday in the Sheraco Stakes at Rosehill. Opened at $3.80 & got crunched in to $2.80 in about 30 minutes. A warm up.for The Invitation. She's currently $9 in that, but after she blows them away on Saturday, you'll be lucky to get $5.
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ronrat
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Post by ronrat »

Pies4shaw wrote:They might. It's in Perth, isn't it?
No. Adelaide oval. They should look at Stevics performances and reduce Toby Greenes penalty to one match.
Annoying opposition supporters since 1967.
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K
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Post by K »

sb Premiership odds

Melbourne 1.64
WB 2.26
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K
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Post by K »

K (Sep. 1) wrote:
Skids wrote:...
What you would do in the scenario you give (which I did when I backed Richmond early in 2017 @14/1) is back whoever your pick is playing to win the game.

I had $100 on Richmond at 14/1 about 8 weeks out from the finals.
When they lined up against Adelaide, I put $500 on Adelaide @ $1.80.... I couldn't lose. Sure I could have won $500 more if I'd just stuck with my initial wager but being guaranteed a minimum profit of $300 was a no brainer.
I collected $1500 for a total outlay of $600.
Yep. But easier when it's a two-horse race than when there are still 3+.

It's tricky deciding when to cash out. Early this year, a poster on this board put money on the multi of The Bont for Charlie ($11) and WB for the flag ($11) for a return of $121. This was a good bet. It's still good! But in hindsight it probably maxed a few weeks ago. Cash out at that time would have been the best. But who would have predicted WB would lose 3 games in a row and The Bont lose form?
It changed again! WB's stocks have risen again. The Bont's were very good half-way through the Brownlow count.* That was the best time to cash out... But may not have been able to do that in the middle of the count. It's a bit unpredictable when sb allow cash out. So the best time to cash out may have been just before the Brownlow count began. Easy to say in hindsight of course!


* From the Brownlow thread:

At 9.40pm, after round 18, sb had Bontempelli 2.25; Oliver 2.63; Wines 3.00.

At 9.47pm, the odds had had a huge swing to Wines 1.14; Bontempelli 5.00;
Oliver 15.00.
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K
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Post by K »

Skids, help!! :shock: :lol:

I need Melbourne to win so I don't lose a lot. ...

<snip> [Post-GF edit: Maybe I shouldn't have been so worried. :wink: ]

I was looking for some very safe bets as legs in a same game multi, to bundle with a H2H (etc.) leg that is unsafe... But wowee... I'm not sure some of those safe bets are safe.

e.g. any time goal scorer... Ben Brown is 1.10. Is it really so safe to assume Brown will score a goal? :?: And Naughton 1.12... Same question...

In the disposal markets, The Bont is 1.12 to get 20+... Oliver 1.11 to get 25+...


Dunno which of those four (for example) is safest....
Last edited by K on Sun Sep 26, 2021 12:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
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piedys
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Post by piedys »

K wrote:Skids, help!! :shock: :lol:

....
Skids, Skids - he's our man - if he can't help you - no one can! :lol:
M I L L A N E 4 2 forever
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Post by K »

K wrote:...
e.g. any time goal scorer... Ben Brown is 1.10. Is it really so safe to assume Brown will score a goal? :?: And Naughton 1.12... Same question...

In the disposal markets, The Bont is 1.12 to get 20+... Oliver 1.11 to get 25+...


Dunno which of those four (for example) is safest....
Post-game check:

The Bont got 25 disposals. Oliver 33. (Petracca 39. :shock: Macrae 26.)

Brown 3 goals. Naughton 1.

So all those got up, with Naughton I guess the least safe.
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Skids
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Post by Skids »

piedys wrote:
K wrote:Skids, help!! :shock: :lol:

....
Skids, Skids - he's our man - if he can't help you - no one can! :lol:
:lol:

Failed dismally.... closest I got was the Treloar 3 goals/Gawn 30 disposals double @ 200/1.

All good, Entriviere won with a leg in the air and is now $4 favourite for The Invitation.
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Skids
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Post by Skids »

Opening market for 2022

Demons $5
Dogs $ 6.50
Lions $9
Cats, Port $10
Swans, Tigers $11
Eagles $13
Giants $15
Bombers $21
Blues, Saints, Dockers $26
Crows, Hawks, Roos, Suns & Pies $81
Don't count the days, make the days count.
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Post by K »

Skids, do you have accounts at both Ladbrokes and Neds? (They're both owned by the same group.)
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Skids
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Post by Skids »

K wrote:Skids, do you have accounts at both Ladbrokes and Neds? (They're both owned by the same group.)
Ladbrokes
WATAB
Sportsbet
Bet365

Are the 4 I use. Rarely use Bet365, they started limiting my bet sizes. TAB & Ladbrokes are my main 2.
Don't count the days, make the days count.
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Post by K »

Skids, the best thing about starting an account is the sign-up freebies. I reckon they give stuff like bonus bets when folks first sign up... but then they stop after the first month or two.

So if I need a freebie fix, I have to sign up to a new account. :wink:

Like now, I'm getting a small bonus bet for thoroughbreds (or harness or greyhounds). Skids, do you have any thoroughbred tips that can be placed in the next week? :?:

I only normally punt on sport, not the horses, so I have no idea...
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23 YIPPEE!!!

Post by 23 YIPPEE!!! »

Should re name the post top 4 2022:

Well my top 4 in 2022:

Melbourne
Dogs
Port
Sydney
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K
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Post by K »

Video Message from the Club:

https://twitter.com/CollingwoodFC/statu ... 5506332675

"... when you gamble often, the same chemical gets released when you get a near miss. Essentially, your brain gets tricked into thinking you've won and this encourages you to keep going..."
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