Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

[roar]

My view is simple - he's going to do it, so let's hope it works much, much better than the numbers elsewhere say it will - because the more likely outcomes are too awful to contemplate.

But less awful than further lockdowns.

[think positive]

[think positive]

My view is simple - he's going to do it, so let's hope it works much, much better than the numbers elsewhere say it will - because the more likely outcomes are too awful to contemplate.

But less awful than further lockdowns.

\

not if your dead

[David]

My view is simple - he's going to do it, so let's hope it works much, much better than the numbers elsewhere say it will - because the more likely outcomes are too awful to contemplate.

But less awful than further lockdowns.

Well, I guess that at least somewhat depends on whether you get to live through them...

[eddiesmith]

My view is simple - he's going to do it, so let's hope it works much, much better than the numbers elsewhere say it will - because the more likely outcomes are too awful to contemplate.

But less awful than further lockdowns.

It's remarkable to think people are all still doom and gloom, if the vaccines work then what are they afraid of? They've been vaccinated so what is there to fear?

If NSW hit 2,000 daily cases in freedom, is that a failure given Victoria hit 2,000 daily cases after 2 months of lockdown!!!

Maybe Victorians should be afraid, it seems to spread far more quickly in Victoria than anywhere else in Australia.

It took 1 person to break isolation rules for this to explode, yet Victoria has sent multiple positive cases over to SA and thankfully none of them have spread yet.

This week alone Dan tried exporting the virus to Sydney, Newcastle and Adelaide all in one go.

Maybe if Sydney does explode they can just blame Dan?

[Pies4shaw]

^ Putting aside the fact that about 5% of the deaths will be of double-vaccinated people, what there is to be "afraid of" is the massive impact on the healthcare system of having people in hospitals - including in ICUs - in large numbers. More particularly, people who are in ICU with COVID tend to be there for about 3 weeks on average. People get seriously ill and die from all sorts of things that aren't COVID - the quality of the care for all those other people with life-threatening conditions will also be deleteriously affected by COVID hospitalisations.

People are not "all doom and gloom". But here's a hint: it pays not to be Pollufukinganna, about it either.

[stui magpie]

My view is simple - he's going to do it, so let's hope it works much, much better than the numbers elsewhere say it will - because the more likely outcomes are too awful to contemplate.

But less awful than further lockdowns.

Well, I guess that at least somewhat depends on whether you get to live through them...

Unfortunately, living with the virus will mean that people will die, but people die every day.

The most vulnerable have had access to get vaccinated since April, so it's not like the plan is to just sacrifice the imunocompromised or the elderly. The data clearly shows that vaccination greatly decreases the instances of hospitalisation and death.

What would be interesting if it was able to be made public, is some kind of analysis of the fully vaccinated people who have died with Covid, as dying with it isn't the same as dying from it. It's highly probable that many of those people close to death anyway and Covid either just hastened the process or had zero impact but because they had Covid when they died it was recorded as a Covid death.

Here's some data on deaths in 2020

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/healt ... st-release

An interesting snippet.

In 2020:

There was a 23.9% decrease in the age-standardised death rate from respiratory diseases.
Influenza and pneumonia mortality had the highest proportional rate decrease of all respiratory diseases with a drop of 45.8% from 2019.
There were 55 people who died from influenza. This compares to 1,080 in 2019.
Pneumonia is also a common terminal cause of death, especially for older people who have long term chronic conditions. There was a decrease of more than 20% in influenza and pneumonia as an associated cause of death (where it was not the underlying cause of death).
The decrease in the respiratory disease death rate from 2019 is the largest recorded over the last ten years.

Apart from lockdowns, that would be largely attributed to social distancing and restrictions, hand sanitiser, hand washing etc.

Opening up will mean those numbers will inevitably increase back to "normal" but I dare say most people would accept that. We can't say that zero deaths is the acceptable number, we can't continue lockdowns.

[eddiesmith]

^ Putting aside the fact that about 5% of the deaths will be of double-vaccinated people, what there is to be "afraid of" is the massive impact on the healthcare system of having people in hospitals - including in ICUs - in large numbers. More particularly, people who are in ICU with COVID tend to be there for about 3 weeks on average. People get seriously ill and die from all sorts of things that aren't COVID - the quality of the care for all those other people with life-threatening conditions will also be deleteriously affected by COVID hospitalisations.

People are not "all doom and gloom". But here's a hint: it pays not to be Pollufukinganna, about it either.

Lucky we've got 4,500 ICU beds then?

[npalm]

^^^ Pollufukinganna ???

Help me out. That's gone whistling right over my head.
Google is just as lost as I am.

Your search - **** - did not match any documents.

Suggestions:

Make sure that all words are spelled correctly.
Try different keywords.
Try more general keywords.

[stui magpie]

Try Pollyanna. or Polly fkn Anna if you prefer.

Slip of the finger methinks.

[think positive]

^^^ Pollufukinganna ???

Help me out. That's gone whistling right over my head.
Google is just as lost as I am.

Your search - **** - did not match any documents.

Suggestions:

Make sure that all words are spelled correctly.
Try different keywords.
Try more general keywords.

Gees you must be young to miss that,

[Pies4shaw]

The "u" is next to the "y".

[What'sinaname]

My view is simple - he's going to do it, so let's hope it works much, much better than the numbers elsewhere say it will - because the more likely outcomes are too awful to contemplate.

But less awful than further lockdowns.

Well, I guess that at least somewhat depends on whether you get to live through them...

Look at Singapore, 98% of people have either mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.

[Pies4shaw]

^ You can't just ignore the lag between infection and death. Singapore reached 80% fully-vaccinated 6 weeks or so ago and was on a road to reopening - until it backtracked and reimposed higher-level restrictions in September because of the number of new cases.

The 7-day rolling average of new cases per day there yesterday was 3,303 (as of 22 August, just before the "reopening", it was a mere 44 new cases per day).

Through the entire pandemic until 11 September, Singapore had had just 58 deaths. In the last month, a further 104 people have died there.

The deaths at the moment are, as we know, really on the back of cases 3 weeks ago - given the ridiculously quick increase in cases, 3 weeks from now the number of deaths per day will increase substantially. The 7-day rolling average of deaths per day was 0 on 17 September but is already 7 (that is, they've gone from no deaths, on average, in a week, to 50 deaths, on average, in a week). The numbers seem small, at the moment - but that is only because the "ramping up" is only still in its very early stages. Three weeks ago, Singapore had about 1,000 new cases per day. Accordingly, it is reasonable to expect that, in three weeks' time, deaths will be of the order of 150 per week.

Singapore's population is, of course, only about 20% of ours and their citizens are generally much more compliant with government directions than Australians have proved to be. Their present 50 deaths per week in Singapore is equivalent to about 250 per week in Australia. For comparison, under 100 people have died in Australia in the last 7 days.

Put another way, of, course, if you just want to focus on the 98% figure you mentioned (however spurious that analysis), 2% of the Australian population is, roughly-speaking, 500,000 people. That won't be the number, of course - but let's not pretend that 2% represents a trivial number of people - the number of people who die every year in Australia of all causes is only about 0.65% of the population.

[Pies4shaw]

In Victoria:

Reported yesterday: 1,466 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas.
- 36,383 vaccines administered
- 68,509 test results received
- Sadly, 8 people with COVID-19 have died

And in NSW:

-0 new overseas acquired cases
-360 new total cases
-766 people in hospital
-155 people in ICU
-5 deaths