Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

[think positive]

yes and no, maybe that has been issued directly to those who need to know, to prevent a massive bunch of damn idiots turning up for a super spreader pretent protest! thats all we need a week before christmas!

[stui magpie]

Well we need to know and nothing has been issued to us. We and others have stff stood down without pay, without legally enforceable directions we cant do that.

[Dave The Man]

My Dad seeing the Doctor Tommorow Morning so I guess be Sorted out then for the Booster

[Dave The Man]

[Dave The Man]

its not the whole point stui, its also trying to stop the spread of it.

im not even going to argue eddie, im not scared, im sensible!

ill agree to disagree with you both!

We're not going to stop the spread. Omicron got into country via fully vaccinated people who've been rapidly infecting other fully vaccinated people. Case numbers are about to explode.

So be back in Lockdown for Christmas Then?

[Dave The Man]

^

Fingers and toes crossed for you, hope you get there safely and enjoy.

Meantime, Dan has released the unvaccinated to a degree, they're allowed back into non essential retail but not salons and we all have to keep wearing masks.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-15/ ... /100700854

I can live with that, masks are a PITA, but happy enough to wear one while shopping.

Same here. Good to see restrictions eased on the unvaccinated, and as much as I would have loved to see masks go, it would have been pretty irresponsible to get rid of them now.

Masks will be around for a Long Time

[stui magpie]

its not the whole point stui, its also trying to stop the spread of it.

im not even going to argue eddie, im not scared, im sensible!

ill agree to disagree with you both!

We're not going to stop the spread. Omicron got into country via fully vaccinated people who've been rapidly infecting other fully vaccinated people. Case numbers are about to explode.

So be back in Lockdown for Christmas Then?

Nah, won't happen. Case numbers will go ballistic but the impact will be minimal (except to the unvaccinated and those working with them) so provided people get the booster shot we'll be open til at least Easter.

[eddiesmith]

Danny has run back to his beach house so we’re very safe from lockdowns

[What'sinaname]

We're not going to stop the spread. Omicron got into country via fully vaccinated people who've been rapidly infecting other fully vaccinated people. Case numbers are about to explode.

So be back in Lockdown for Christmas Then?

Nah, won't happen. Case numbers will go ballistic but the impact will be minimal (except to the unvaccinated and those working with them) so provided people get the booster shot we'll be open til at least Easter.

And that's the thing isn't it. Hospitalisations are more important than case numbers nowadays.

Hospital admissions fell 2.6% in 2019-20, and while numbers aren't out for the latest year, emergency admissions are, and they rose 6.9% in 2020-21.

So hospital admissions aren't all that much higher today than pre-COVID.

[pietillidie]

^

Hospitalisations are more important than case numbers nowadays.

Unfortunately, it's a much bigger game than that. TP has already explained why: mutation opportunity through case numbers mild or not is every bit as crucial both in the obvious sense something vicious could wipe half of us out, and in the less obvious sense that because each new wave is of unknown severity, by necessity it must trigger high-level protective measures to safeguard society until the risk is confidently known.

Moreover, just the knowledge of increased cases mild or not impacts economic behaviour dramatically on the basis of that risk.

Simultaneous to that, behavioural habit and preparedness is crucial because the loss of agility in response to new variants is also a massive risk as the first few weeks of response matter most. So, imagine you do get a slightly more lethal variant and you've got people wandering about claiming it's no different to a mild flu and all nonsense. It will then take far too long to click people back into gear in response. So, it's never just about this wave or variant.

You're not thinking through the risk management properly. People with serious stakes in the game just can't be flippant and hope for the best. Proper insurance policies are always expensive.

[Dave The Man]

^

Hospitalisations are more important than case numbers nowadays.

Unfortunately, it's a much bigger game than that. TP has already explained why: mutation opportunity through case numbers mild or not is every bit as crucial both in the obvious sense something vicious could wipe half of us out, and in the less obvious sense that because each new wave is of unknown severity, by necessity it must trigger high-level protective measures to safeguard society until the risk is confidently known.

Moreover, just the knowledge of increased cases mild or not impacts economic behaviour dramatically on the basis of that risk.

Simultaneous to that, behavioural habit and preparedness is crucial because the loss of agility in response to new variants is also a massive risk as the first few weeks of response matter most. So, imagine you do get a slightly more lethal variant and you've got people wandering about claiming it's no different to a mild flu and all nonsense. It will then take far too long to click people back into gear in response. So, it's never just about this wave or variant.

You're not thinking through the risk management properly. People with serious stakes in the game just can't be flippant and hope for the best. Proper insurance policies are always expensive.

IF we want to Wipe out Covid then People have to Stay Home and don't leave there house to stop the Chances of being Spread Then.

Also stuff like keeping International Borders Closed

[stui magpie]

^

yeah, but history suggests that the more infectious less lethal variants win the race for dominance over the more lethal ones.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-15/ ... /100697860

Omicron now accounts for about 20 per cent of COVID-19 infections in England and almost makes up the majority of infections in London, according to the UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid.

Yesterday, Mr Javid warned that Omicron will be the dominant strain in the capital within 48 hours.

"I think this current wave of Omicron is going to resemble more like a severe outbreak of influenza, which of course, we get every few years, every winter," he said.

"And again, it may be like that in years to come."

People will still die, over 1100 people died in 2017 from flu, but we just didn't hear about it. https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinic ... ast-12-mon

[What'sinaname]

^

Hospitalisations are more important than case numbers nowadays.

Unfortunately, it's a much bigger game than that. TP has already explained why: mutation opportunity through case numbers mild or not is every bit as crucial both in the obvious sense something vicious could wipe half of us out, and in the less obvious sense that because each new wave is of unknown severity, by necessity it must trigger high-level protective measures to safeguard society until the risk is confidently known.

Moreover, just the knowledge of increased cases mild or not impacts economic behaviour dramatically on the basis of that risk.

Simultaneous to that, behavioural habit and preparedness is crucial because the loss of agility in response to new variants is also a massive risk as the first few weeks of response matter most. So, imagine you do get a slightly more lethal variant and you've got people wandering about claiming it's no different to a mild flu and all nonsense. It will then take far too long to click people back into gear in response. So, it's never just about this wave or variant.

You're not thinking through the risk management properly. People with serious stakes in the game just can't be flippant and hope for the best. Proper insurance policies are always expensive.

why do you not have the same concerns over the possible mutations of the influenza virus or any other virus? They all have the chance of mutating to something sinister with unknown severity.

As for severity, in the worst country, Peru, they recorded 620 deaths per 100,000. So thinking this could mutate to something that will wipe out 50,000 per 100,000 is a bit of a stretch.

[pietillidie]

yeah, but history suggests that the more infectious less lethal variants win the race for dominance over the more lethal ones.

That's the hope, but it's the uncertainty while that plays out and is confirmed that's the problem. No one knows how long the race will be, so the risk effectively resets ahead of every variant.

A bit like quarterly economic data, if we get three 'good' variants in a row we'll hopefully see the game change.

The problem with the flu argument is that the minute you point it out it actually makes things worse, not better. That is, people realise they only accepted those deaths because they'd never thought about them. They don't say to themselves: "Of course, yes, carry on". They say: "That's terrible, we can't allow that to happen, either."

So, you've effectively made flu deaths seem worse, not made Covid deaths seem better. People don't respond to death like it's an internet debate.

[Dave The Man]

^ why do you not have the same concerns over the possible mutations of the influenza virus or any other virus? They all have the chance of mutating to something sinister with unknown severity.

As for severity, in the worst country, Peru, they recorded 620 deaths per 100,000. So thinking this could mutate to something that will wipe out 50,000 per 100,000 is a bit of a stretch.

Well as the Media and Goverment put in Lockdown/Restricions just in Case influenza virus might Mutate to something very Deadly