Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

[What'sinaname]

In Victoria, the death rate (deaths / cases) is now 0.28%.

It was
0.83% on 1 January 2022
1.09% on 1 December 2021
3.96% on 1 July 2021
4.02% on 1 January 2021

When you consider that the vast majority of deaths occur in the elderly and people with comorbidities, this is why we don't need to lock down millions of healthy people.

Given no one can get tested the rate is probably even lower with tens of thousands of unreported cases.

That's right - coupled with asymptomatic people not needing to test these figures overstate the true current impact of COVID. So if these numbers continue to go down or even plateau, then we will be in a better place - perhaps moving to an epidemic provided no nasty new variant comes along.

[Pies4shaw]

Except, of course, that the “rate” you calculate is a work of meaningless fiction.

[What'sinaname]

Except, of course, that the “rate” you calculate is a work of meaningless fiction.

Yeah, so ficticious that it's used by Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center. But what would they know?

[Pies4shaw]

The rate you calculate is a work of meaningless fiction. The quality of a nonsense calculation is not somehow salvaged by others performing the same nonsense calculation.

[What'sinaname]

The rate you calculate is a work of meaningless fiction. The quality of a nonsense calculation is not somehow salvaged by others performing the same nonsense calculation.

Medical profession uses case fatality rate.

Guy on internet forum says CFR is meaningless fiction.

I'm on the fence in terms of who to believe.

[Pies4shaw]

If you were capable of reaching a sensible solution to that dilemma, you’d understand why the number you want to calculate is a meaningless fiction. I’m not going to waste my time explaining it to you again - but I am going to continue to push back when you respond by trying to belittle me with a stupid argument that carries the same intellectual weight as “my father is taller than your father”.

[stui magpie]

Deaths will continue to go up, until they start to go down.

We know that Omicron is vastly more infectious than Delta but causes less serious illness, certainly in fully vaccinated people.

We know Delta is still around although the majority of cases are now Omicron, but we don't know how much of what is around because they aren't doing genomic sequencing for all cases, only a small number.

We also have little data on those in Hospital, in ICU or dead. Hospitalisation numbers are inflated by people presenting to ED's with other issues (eg, broken leg) and test positive .

We don't know the vaccination status of people in ICU or of those who died. We could assume that all or the majority of those on ventilators have Delta (as Omicron doesn't seem to attack the lungs) or are unvaccinated or both, but we don't know.

if people want to point to the rising death rate as more reason to be cautious, they're free to be cautious. Many of those who have died are likely people who would have died of flu or pnemonia in a normal year, healthy vaccinated people seem to have little to fear in the main.

[Pies4shaw]

All I’m trying to do at the moment is point to the rising rate of daily deaths as evidence of a rising rate of daily deaths. It isn’t rocket science. The place seems to be haunted by one or two people with limited reasoning capacity who want to use the rising number of deaths as evidence that the pandemic is waning. Sane people looking at the numbers would say it has entered its most deadly phase so far. For the simple reason that it self-evidently has.

What people want to make of that is their business.

[What'sinaname]

If you were capable of reaching a sensible solution to that dilemma, you’d understand why the number you want to calculate is a meaningless fiction. I’m not going to waste my time explaining it to you again - but I am going to continue to push back when you respond by trying to belittle me with a stupid argument that carries the same intellectual weight as “my father is taller than your father”.

I don't want or need you to explain anything.

[What'sinaname]

All I’m trying to do at the moment is point to the rising rate of daily deaths as evidence of a rising rate of daily deaths. It isn’t rocket science. The place seems to be haunted by one or two people with limited reasoning capacity who want to use the rising number of deaths as evidence that the pandemic is waning. Sane people looking at the numbers would say it has entered its most deadly phase so far. For the simple reason that it self-evidently has.

What people want to make of that is their business.

When you can't play the ball, play the man.

Well done!

[Dave The Man]

All I’m trying to do at the moment is point to the rising rate of daily deaths as evidence of a rising rate of daily deaths. It isn’t rocket science. The place seems to be haunted by one or two people with limited reasoning capacity who want to use the rising number of deaths as evidence that the pandemic is waning. Sane people looking at the numbers would say it has entered its most deadly phase so far. For the simple reason that it self-evidently has.

What people want to make of that is their business.

Then I guess Omicron is worse then Delta and best thing to do is Get Vaccinated and keep your Distance from People

[stui magpie]

^

Only if you believe P4S

[eddiesmith]

50% of ICU patients and 60% of deaths are unvaccinated according to a source even P4S would believe, the Minister for Education…

[Pies4shaw]

That’s about what you’d expect, isn’t it? Maybe, you’d expect the unvaxxed proportion to be a bit higher (say 75/25) - but you’re dealing with small subsets, so there’ll be some fluctuation from the expected proportions.

[David]