Coronavirus 4 - Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

[Pies4shaw]

Reported in Victoria today:

Hospital: 543
ICU: 75
Ventilated: 23
Deaths: 16

and in NSW:

- 1,795 hospitalisations
- 121 people in ICU
- 24 deaths

[stui magpie]

I should, perhaps, observe that there is a vast range of potential public health measures between "lock everything down" and "let it rip". I suppose the problem for an intelligent politician (if there ever were one) is that the electorate is full of people who find it easier - as you plainly do - to turn everything into a stark choice between just 2 equally-stupid alternatives.

Keep in mind, we aren't "letting it rip" as those other countries you referred to in another post are about to do. We still have restrictions in place that would have been unthinkable 2 years ago.

Vaccination mandates for whole sections of the workforce and on people wanting to attend hospitality and retail venues
People who are able to are still working from home
Mandatory Mask wearing indoors (except at home).

But, retail and hospitality are open. People are back at work, kids are back at school. Sporting events are happening with little to no crowd caps. This is about as close to "normal" as we've had it for 2 years. The unfortunate consequence is that people have been dying.

It had been a topic of conversation during the course of the pandemic, how many deaths are considered acceptable? To put it another way, at what point does the level of deaths become unacceptable to the point where people would want and/or accept increased restriction again?

Despite the large numbers, it seems we aren't at that point and with hospitalisations steadily decreasing, we aren't going to find out this time.

There is the other point to consider, the current plan isn't just political but strategic. The combination of natural immunity from infection AND immunity from vaccinations and boosters is seen as the best form of defense heading into winter. I recall the Qld CHO last month saying that it was essential that almost everyone catch Omicron.

[#26]

Ah well. Guess I'll keep getting my boosters, keep wearing my masks indoors and keep using hand sanitizers regularly.

Thanks for the posts, guys. You all make interesting points.

[What'sinaname]

I should, perhaps, observe that there is a vast range of potential public health measures between "lock everything down" and "let it rip". I suppose the problem for an intelligent politician (if there ever were one) is that the electorate is full of people who find it easier - as you plainly do - to turn everything into a stark choice between just 2 equally-stupid alternatives.

Keep in mind, we aren't "letting it rip" as those other countries you referred to in another post are about to do. We still have restrictions in place that would have been unthinkable 2 years ago.

Vaccination mandates for whole sections of the workforce and on people wanting to attend hospitality and retail venues
People who are able to are still working from home
Mandatory Mask wearing indoors (except at home).

But, retail and hospitality are open. People are back at work, kids are back at school. Sporting events are happening with little to no crowd caps. This is about as close to "normal" as we've had it for 2 years. The unfortunate consequence is that people have been dying.

It had been a topic of conversation during the course of the pandemic, how many deaths are considered acceptable? To put it another way, at what point does the level of deaths become unacceptable to the point where people would want and/or accept increased restriction again?

Despite the large numbers, it seems we aren't at that point and with hospitalisations steadily decreasing, we aren't going to find out this time.

There is the other point to consider, the current plan isn't just political but strategic. The combination of natural immunity from infection AND immunity from vaccinations and boosters is seen as the best form of defense heading into winter. I recall the Qld CHO last month saying that it was essential that almost everyone catch Omicron.

Letting it rip may have resulted in 25,000 deaths, so the current restrictions could have saved 20,000 lives. Similarly, we might have had 2,000 deaths even with lockdown / curfew in place. Omicron was more infectious and people were going to catch it when they left home for the 5 valid reasons.

Is the current public health policy setting right? You'll never know!

[Pies4shaw]

Stui, my point was that eddiesmith seems to assume that everything I post is somehow in support of a return to lockdowns and curfew - and that my review of the numbers is sullied by some association with a political party I haven't even considered voting for in a quarter of a century. It hasn't been and isn't.

I wasn't making some political point about Victoria - I was simply observing that we're currently living through a period in which the pandemic has been at its most deadly, all the more so if you take the (completely-controlled) first wave numbers out of the equation. Not by a little bit - but the vast preponderance of second-wave deaths in Australia are happening right now. We can have differences of opinion about what it all means - but it's kind of boring to have people turn a conversation that requires a fair bit of nuamce into a stupid dichotomy.

My point about death numbers from Omicron has never been to suggest that we need to lock down instantly (or at all) - rather, the point is that deaths, which have ramped up to their worst levels by a huge margin, have not been any part of most governments' COVID conversations since Delta ended. The political strategy of almost all Australian governments has been to pretend that Omicron is less of a public health concern than Delta was, despite that the evidence is in, at the population level, and it is entirely to the contrary.

[Pies4shaw]

I'll just leave this here, shall I?

https://www.actuaries.asn.au/Library/Me ... 070222.pdf

January 2022 COVID-19 deaths likely to result in 10% excess
mortality for the month: Actuaries Institute

9 February 2022

• Total COVID-19 deaths in January 2022 are higher than COVID-19 deaths over the 12 months of both 2020 and 2021.

• Omicron was considered milder than Delta, but the surge in deaths is expected to result in 10 per cent more Australian deaths, from all causes, than predicted.

....

The Actuaries Institute has compared Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on deaths during the pandemic to expected deaths from all causes, including respiratory illnesses such as influenza and pneumonia. “This analysis of ABS data shows the importance of thorough analysis of complex data sets,” said Actuaries Institute Chief Executive, Elayne Grace. “Looking beyond the face value of data provides a more meaningful understanding of complex outcomes.”

Jennifer Lang, Convenor of the Actuaries Institute’s COVID-19 Working Group said: “Our modelling shows that until the Omicron surge in cases, overall mortality in Australia has been lower than previous years, as the increase in deaths from COVID-19 has been more than offset by the reduction in deaths from other respiratory illnesses. “However, most of the reduction in deaths from other respiratory illnesses has occurred during winter, so the extra nearly 1,600 deaths in January 2022 are likely to have increased mortality in Australia by around 10% for that month,” Ms Lang said.

....

Anyone who wants to engage with the detailed analysis analysis can look at this: https://www.actuaries.digital/2022/02/0 ... se-likely/

For those trying to understand the source of the data, I believe that the AI has taken the reported deaths on 2 January 2022 through to 1 February 2022 (which should, in effect, be for the previous day, so - barring catch-up stupidity, some of which occurred but it appears to have occurred in mid-January - those should be the January COVID deaths). If you perfrm that calculation, you get their base figure of 1,582.

[stui magpie]

Stui, my point was that eddiesmith seems to assume that everything I post is somehow in support of a return to lockdowns and curfew - and that my review of the numbers is sullied by some association with a political party I haven't even considered voting for in a quarter of a century. It hasn't been and isn't.

I wasn't making some political point about Victoria - I was simply observing that we're currently living through a period in which the pandemic has been at its most deadly, all the more so if you take the (completely-controlled) first wave numbers out of the equation. Not by a little bit - but the vast preponderance of second-wave deaths in Australia are happening right now. We can have differences of opinion about what it all means - but it's kind of boring to have people turn a conversation that requires a fair bit of nuamce into a stupid dichotomy.

My point about death numbers from Omicron has never been to suggest that we need to lock down instantly (or at all) - rather, the point is that deaths, which have ramped up to their worst levels by a huge margin, have not been any part of most governments' COVID conversations since Delta ended. The political strategy of almost all Australian governments has been to pretend that Omicron is less of a public health concern than Delta was, despite that the evidence is in, at the population level, and it is entirely to the contrary.

No doubt the political strategy has flipped and the media has followed that.

Originally restrictions were to "flatten the curve" and stop hospitals being over run.

Then when Victoria were incapable of managing Alpha with the same TTI strategy that NSW and other states were successful with, we went into lockdowns and the fear campaign started. Emotive terms applied to a Virus such as "beast" to scare people into compliance.

That worked so well that Victoria was able to pursue it's Covid Zero policy and aided by the fact that no international flights were coming in, every other state had closed it's border to us and no one wanted to come in, it worked.

They then took great credit for beating the virus, ignoring the number of dead and the lockdowns which didn't happen under competent administrations.

Fast forward to now and you're correct, the messaging has changed.

Epidemiological advice seems to have been in several parts and would seem to be consistently accepted across all states except West Korea.

1. You can't stop Omicron
2. A combination of Vaccination and natural immunity is the best bet for avoiding carnage come winter. Let it run with just enough restrictions to stop Hospitals being over run
3. The vast majority of fully vaccinated people will have little to no symptoms from Omicron, but people will die. Lots. But if we don't do it, more will die come winter.

Add to that, people are weary of restrictions and thoroughly over lockdowns. When people aged 20-40 are catching it droves and have no issues, they aren't going to cop being locked up again.

So the messaging pivots to the positive. We're open for business, get out and enjoy. Daily Deaths are announced as almost the after thought with a cough behind the hand as they don't want focus on that. Any of them.

Lots of modelling was done with hospitalisation and ICU rates for different scenarios. Some of this has been released, not all, but that modelling would have included deaths.

We can only assume that the number of people dying is within the acceptable tolerance that Governments anticipated. Hospitalisations and ICU cases peaked below best case scenario, so the same would seem to apply for deaths.

Having pivoted from the fear campaign to the positive messaging, the number of people dying will not be a focus. That's how it is.

[What'sinaname]

My point about death numbers from Omicron has never been to suggest that we need to lock down instantly (or at all) - rather, the point is that deaths, which have ramped up to their worst levels by a huge margin, have not been any part of most governments' COVID conversations since Delta ended. The political strategy of almost all Australian governments has been to pretend that Omicron is less of a public health concern than Delta was, despite that the evidence is in, at the population level, and it is entirely to the contrary.

Health and wellbeing considers five dimensions. Physical, emotional, mental, social and spiritual. The only evidence provided is physical. Public health policy consider all five dimensions.

[Pies4shaw]

So, as between Omicron and Delta, how do you rate the two viruses, respectively, on "physical", "emotional", "mental", "social" and "spiritual"?

Do tell.

[What'sinaname]

So, as between Omicron and Delta, how do you rate the two viruses, respectively, on "physical", "emotional", "mental", "social" and "spiritual"?

Do tell.

No need to be a pompous smart arse, as hard as it is for you not to be.

Public health policy considers the four other dimensions, the emotional impact, mental impact, spiritual impact and social impact.

Congratulations on using hindsight to conclude there were more deaths from Omicron than all other COVID variants in Australia.....slow clap.

[Pies4shaw]

^ So, you don't have anything? I guess we knew that.

As for the snipe in your last sentence, you wrote this on 5 January:

Globally, COVID deaths have been consistently declining since December 7, even while cases in that time have trebled.

and I responded with this:

^ You must know that's just a nonsense way of looking at things. Cases have increased, worldwide, by about 85% week on week in the last fortnight - but if people are going to die from the new cases, they're going to die in a few weeks' time, not now. It isn't complex.

The people who assess these things in the UK take the view that Omicron is about 40% as likely as Delta to cause serious illness. If that's right and cases double, the numbers of serious cases and deaths should be about 80% of what they would have been with Delta.

By contrast, if cases go up from an average of 1,500 per day to 55,000 per day (and likely much more), as is the rough position in Australia, that means deaths (at the 0.25% rate we've typically seen for Alpha and Delta in most places with advanced health-care systems) will likely increase (eventually, as the disease works its way through its course) from about 30 per week to nearly 800 per week. In Australia, the death rate seems to have been a bit higher, so maybe it means an increase from 50 to 800, over time. It's not nothing.

I have no idea whether the 40% estimate is correct - but that's the figure apparently competent experts have been using.

Also, of course, that's without taking any sane account of either the impact on the public health system of massive increases in the numbers of people hospitalised with COVID (and the consequent impact on other people with other serious illnesses) or the impact of "long COVID", which - it appears - can be a consequence of any COVID infection, howsoever "mildly" symptomatic on the primary infection.

Just to be clear about the context: you had been consistently posting to the effect that Omicron wasn't as bg a problem as Delta. On the day we had that exchange above, there were 18 deaths reported in Australia from COVID. The previous day, there had been 5. Since that day, over 2,100 COVID deaths have been reported in Australia. Bluntly, I told you what was likely to happen. My predictions were just based on sensible projection from the data I was looking at. Your repeated attempts to talk down what was obvious to me - and your determination to post actively to the opposite effect - means that you now look like an idiot.

As I've said to you on earlier occasions, if you don't understand these things, you don't have to post about them. If you're going to keep posting drivel, you can expect me to continue to respond.

[#26]

" The vast majority of fully vaccinated people will have little to no symptoms from Omicron, but people will die. Lots. But if we don't do it, more will die come winter."

@stui: Can you expand on that? Are you saying opening up will keep the Winter death toll lower than lockdowns would?

[Pies4shaw]

Reported in Victoria today:

Hospital: 553
ICU: 82
Ventilated: 23
Deaths: 13

and in NSW:

- 1,716 hospitalisations
- 108 people in ICU
- 19 deaths

So, with just those two States reporting, since the start of 2022 Australia has reported half of all deaths in the COVID pandemic.

It is also exactly one month of days on which the reported number of COVID deaths in Australia has exceeded the highest total reported on any day during the Delta outbreak.

To put flesh on those bones, the highest total reported on any day during the Delta outbreak was 27 deaths. The daily average for the last month has been over 68 deaths per day. The highest daily number of reported deaths on any day of the pandemic before this last month was 59. That 59 was a one-off and reflected a "catch-up" report of unreported deaths in Commonwealth nursing homes in Victoria during the 2020 outbreak, so there's really no sensible comparison between that number and what we've experienced over the last month.

[think positive]

" The vast majority of fully vaccinated people will have little to no symptoms from Omicron, but people will die. Lots. But if we don't do it, more will die come winter."

@stui: Can you expand on that? Are you saying opening up will keep the Winter death toll lower than lockdowns would?

if you look at the stats world wide, more people die or get very ill in cold weather, for a start your immunity is down, less sunlight less vitamin D, for most less exercise, less out door time and more exposure to more people in closed, ie not fully ventilated, areas. chuck in circulating heat, its party time for viruses. i cant remember what it was but over a certain temperature covid germies doesnt last long. i guess thats why England is screwed!!!


im shooting a wedding on my own tomorrow, ive never even been second shooter at one, tad nervous to say the least (read basket case!!) and now i just found out the groom gets out of quarantine today! lucky i believe in the power of Jim, to kill nerves and germs!!!

[Dave The Man]

Ah well. Guess I'll keep getting my boosters, keep wearing my masks indoors and keep using hand sanitizers regularly.

Thanks for the posts, guys. You all make interesting points.

Spot On. I am doing the Same