Russian invasion of Ukraine

[#26]

"Zelensky Says Ukraine ‘Left Alone’ To Fight Russia, NATO Is ‘Afraid"

https://news.antiwar.com/2022/02/24/zel ... is-afraid/

[roar]

Yeah, I was just reading a couple of discussions about it on Twitter and it seems like there are plenty of alternatives to the Swift system. So maybe even that isn't going to be all that effective.

On the other hand, looking at the degree of vehemence with which Ukrainian authorities call for the measure, one should probably assume it could have a significant impact.

There's always naysayers in relation to any measure - so, eg, a call for an end to the use of Amazonian timber for paper production will be met by a response that identifies the additional use of fossil fuels for transport if supplies are to be sourced from elsewhere.

Fundamentally, if the Ukrainian government thinks Swift matters and is angry about the rest of Europe backing away from the measure, either it's strategically important or the entire Ukrainian administration is stupid and doesn't know what's good for it. Although the second alternative is possible, I don't rush to embrace it.

Salient points that deserve repeating. Great post!

[pietillidie]

[pietillidie]

NATO agrees to send more troops to Eastern Europe.

[pietillidie]

The bloodthirsty autocrat keeps calling Ukraine's democratically elected PM, who is Jewish, a Nazi. You do worry he has lost his marbles.

Russians need to take him out for their own sake.

[David]

Putin has spent the last decade and a half ensuring that nothing of the sort can happen. You can’t even protest without being arrested, and anyone who tries to form a viable opposition movement gets imprisoned or assassinated. The only way he gets taken out at this stage would be an internal coup.

[David]

A solid analysis of the situation here:

https://prospect.org/world/worse-than-a ... interview/

[pietillidie]

^One of the best pieces so far.

I feel the sentiment of young Ukrainians has been underplayed in all analyses. Having done some work with a young Ukrainian company, and felt how energetic and optimistic they were, I am fuming on their behalf and feel their claustrophobia and repulsion. Why should they be sacrificed to guarantee everyone else's tranquillity?

There will always be risks with Russia, whether now or even worse later as Putin gets even more senile. Perhaps those wanting to expand NATO were idealistic, and certainly Germany were fools for giving a bloodthirsty thug so much leverage, and everyone else was vulgar for accepting the money of gangsters, but it's a mistake to think these things never had to be broached. If you're not extending human rights where they're wanted, at some point you're oppressing them for your own convenience.

Putin has overstepped the mark here. No one else. He already had Crimea and buffer regions and as we have seen a puppet in Belarus; this is entirely gratuitous.

[pietillidie]

From the BBC live feed:

For the second night in a row, thousands of Georgians have turned out in the capital Tblisi to protest against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to aid pro-Russia separatist forces. Experts have drawn many parallels between that conflict and the one currently unfurling in Ukraine.

Some members of the crowd - estimated at 30,000 - chanted slogans against the current Georgian government, after the ruling party said it would not join the Western sanctions on Russia.

“I want to state clearly and unambiguously, considering our national interests and interests of the people, Georgia does not plan to participate in the financial and economic sanctions, as this would only damage our country and populace more,” the country's Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili said earlier on Friday.

The protesters said the PM's move represented a cowardly abandonment of the Ukrainian people.

[What'sinaname]

^One of the best pieces so far.

I feel the sentiment of young Ukrainians has been underplayed in all analyses. Having done some work with a young Ukrainian company, and felt how energetic and optimistic they were, I am fuming on their behalf and feel their claustrophobia and repulsion. Why should they be sacrificed to guarantee everyone else's tranquillity?

There will always be risks with Russia, whether now or even worse later as Putin gets even more senile. Perhaps those wanting to expand NATO were idealistic, and certainly Germany were fools for giving a bloodthirsty thug so much leverage, and everyone else was vulgar for accepting the money of gangsters, but it's a mistake to think these things never had to be broached. If you're not extending human rights where they're wanted, at some point you're oppressing them for your own convenience.

Putin has overstepped the mark here. No one else. He already had Crimea and buffer regions and as we have seen a puppet in Belarus; this is entirely gratuitous.

Putin doesn't want to occupy. He doesn't want NATO in Ukraine given the size of their border with Russia.

[stui magpie]

Yeah, I was just reading a couple of discussions about it on Twitter and it seems like there are plenty of alternatives to the Swift system. So maybe even that isn't going to be all that effective.

On the other hand, looking at the degree of vehemence with which Ukrainian authorities call for the measure, one should probably assume it could have a significant impact.

There's always naysayers in relation to any measure - so, eg, a call for an end to the use of Amazonian timber for paper production will be met by a response that identifies the additional use of fossil fuels for transport if supplies are to be sourced from elsewhere.

Fundamentally, if the Ukrainian government thinks Swift matters and is angry about the rest of Europe backing away from the measure, either it's strategically important or the entire Ukrainian administration is stupid and doesn't know what's good for it. Although the second alternative is possible, I don't rush to embrace it.

Salient points that deserve repeating. Great post!

They're also complaining that no one is sending in troops to help them.

You could apply the same logic to that scenario or could instead consider that the truth is somewhat more nuanced than 2 polar alternatives.

[stui magpie]

My somewhat pessimistic view is that Putin holds the whip hand. He's basically won.

Sanctions aren't going to make him back down and no one wants to send in ground troops as that would be (in Putin's eyes) a declaration of War against Russia. China would jump straight in on Russia's side and it's on.

Nobody sane wants that, so they all sit back and make noise instead.

Signs are I called that too early. Putin was clearly expecting many if not all of the Ukrainian troops to down tools and welcome their Russian brethren but they're putting up a fight. So he's misread that one, seems the Ukrainians like living in a democracy and aren't that keen on being governed by a totalitarian thug.

Which brings us to the impact of social media. Unlike China, Russians have access to Facebook and photos of young likely conscripted Russian soldiers captured or dead are apparently already doing the rounds. That won't go down well with the population.

[swoop42]

What has happened to their military since the Soviet Union dissolved?

They remain the second most populous country of those who once formed the USSR and at that time would have only been behind Russia in terms of military force I would imagine.

With a population of over 40 million and a history closely aligned with that of Russia I'm surprised they didn't follow the same path of paranoia and maintain a military presence beyond what their society could really afford.

Was it lack of money and/or will to adequately equip a military or a desire to be a more enlightened (fair to say they still have a way to go) and equitable society moving forward that has left them in this vulnerable situation?

I bet they wish they had held on to some of these.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_w ... nd_Ukraine

[Jezza]

[Jezza]

Zelensky has balls of steel. Showing true leadership.