Trade Targets ~ Free Agency & MSD player discussion

[LaurieHolden]

Agree. There was a spell a few weeks ago where Wright didn’t kick a goal for three consecutive games but nobody notices that. They just see him kick a goal and say, Geez, he should have been at Collingwood. Same as McStay, he was pretty ordinary last night, got his hands to a bit of the ball but couldn’t finish. He didn’t get to 100 plus games playing like that every week. Most thought he would be dropped when both Hipwood and Daniher were back but it hadn’t happened yet, so they must rate him.
What people miss about trading for players is that not every player wants to come to Collingwood just because we want them to come to the club. There’s 18 clubs out there across the country and all provide different on field opportunities, present different contracts, while some can also offer additional lures like bigger crowds, career after footy, go home factor etc. Point being, when you have a player who seemingly is keen to play for your club and doesn’t come as a trade, you need to consider these guys seriously. We’re also talking about a player who fits our list profile perfectly ( tall, 100 + games, 26 )
I still think there’s a fair chance if McStay comes to the club, then either one of Krueger or McStay could be trialled in the backline during the off season. They both started their AFL careers as defenders and it would probably balance out our list more evenly, since Howe is close to the end and that we have very little physical strength back there. I’m not fussed either way about McStay but this club hasn’t gone from 17th and a basket case to 7th with a bullet twelve months later on the back of making bad or rash decisions. You can bet the footy dept will have watched more than his game last night before making a final decision on him ( or McStay on us )

Precisely. We're thin on this age bracket and experience. The next two drafts and trade periods will define our next 5 years. Melbourne did this ever so effectively, they used their high draft picks then used a succession of trade periods to secure the key personnel (May, Lever, Hibberd) that ultimately delivered them the 2021 Premiership. Melbourne had a great injury run through 2021.

Consider for a moment if 41.Mihocek was to go down, it will cause us all manner of problems. McStay also offers versatility at either end of the ground. If we were to go into a finals campaign, a player in that 'bracket' is the type of player we definitely need to trade in.

Note well, salary caps have grown significantly over the past 5 years post the most recent CBA. Team salary caps in the AFL increased from $12.76 million in 2019, to $13.54 million in 2022. Even with the mega deals on 4.Grundy and 30.Moore, we must shift our mindset from previous seasons where yes, $600k p.a. was a large wedge. Otherwise you'll be like my old man, thinking it's 1987 when the cap was $1.25m.

46.Cox doesn't offer the flexibility and is in the departure lounge, occasionally used for a mystery flight.
At 23 y/o and 5 games, 15.Kreuger is still effectively an untried recruit.

Just for a moment we might consider Leppitsch knows what we'd be getting, having had McStay under his own coaching tutelage. If it results in competition for spots, all the better.

[Boot]

I can't see the attraction of McStay at a cost of $600K for 5 years. I'm struggling to see what position he would fill in our top 22 given that he would be competing with Cameron, who just signed on for 3 years and is younger and already better than McStay imo, and with the likes of Cox, Kruger and Johnston.
If McStay was at the club now he would be in the que behind Mihocek, Cameron and potentially Cox. I doubt that he would be preferable to Henry or WHE or any of our small's such as Elliott, Ginnavin or McCreey.

Hence he would end up being a back-up player only adding depth to supplement the likes of Moore, Murphy and Howe in the defensive talls. Maybe the aim is to use him as a potenial swingman to replace Roughead but that's where Dean, Kelly and Madgen are at the moment.

[sherrife]

Cox is not going to be playing when Grundy is back. Forget about him as a forward, that experiment is over. He's a backup ruckman.

I reckon Kruger is the CHF we're hoping to come through, but in the meantime McStay can fill holes either forward or back. I reckon 5 years might be a bit much for that kind of player, but I have some trust that the footy HQ know what they're doing.

On the salary, you also have to accommodate for inflation and the cap rising slowly each year. So 600k now is not what it was 5-10 years ago. I would guess that it's probably on the upper end of the medium band of players. But someone can correct me if that's wrong.

[Woods Of Ypres]

his game last night (McStay) did him no favours

someone mentioned Weideman earlier. is he available?
has much more talent

[piffdog]

I can't see the attraction of McStay at a cost of $600K for 5 years. I'm struggling to see what position he would fill in our top 22 given that he would be competing with Cameron, who just signed on for 3 years and is younger and already better than McStay imo, and with the likes of Cox, Kruger and Johnston.
If McStay was at the club now he would be in the que behind Mihocek, Cameron and potentially Cox. I doubt that he would be preferable to Henry or WHE or any of our small's such as Elliott, Ginnavin or McCreey.

Hence he would end up being a back-up player only adding depth to supplement the likes of Moore, Murphy and Howe in the defensive talls. Maybe the aim is to use him as a potenial swingman to replace Roughead but that's where Dean, Kelly and Madgen are at the moment.

I think you need to look beyond who would be playing now or next year. IN 18 months time Howe and Cox will likely not even be on our list, and a year after that maybe Checkers is gone. We would be recruiting McStay for 5+ years.

[burnsy17]

^^

I’d rather go to the draft and find one for possibly 10 years.

Yes, it’s a gamble. But so is McStay at his current output which is not much.

[stui magpie]

Stui, I don’t necessarily disagree with you but is the knock on McStay more about the contract or whether he improves our list or not ? Or both ?
Is he worth the ALLEGED $600,000 a year, probably not. So what worth do you then put on draft pick in the mid / late twenties you don’t have to hand over to get him ?
McStay for mine, is all about team dynamic and balance and obviously the Lions think he helps theirs and they’ve been a decent team for a few years now. Sure, we would all prefer Luke Jackson but we aren’t in a position to make that happen. We could also wait until the end of 2023 for someone better than McStay and then compete against all the other clubs looking to improve.
At the risk of repeating myself, I still think the McStay decision is as much about whether DeGoey stays or goes. If Degoey leaves, then the value of McStay becomes a very different conversation when there’s a first round compo pick at play.

Good comments. I think he would improve our list, but not $500k+ worth and I think Krueger's upside is better..

If the plan is to get a solid grunt who will attract a good defender for the next 5 years while we build around him, I'm not sold. You want 2 goals a game from a grunt KPP, like Checkers. McStay averages 0.8, less than Cox, Cameron, Checkers, DeGoey, Ginni, Billy, Henry, Krueger (as a Pie) and WHE. McCreery has the same goal per game average and makes backmen look to see where he is a lot more than McStay does.


If we plan to play him full back, relieving Moore, Howe and Murphy, I'm sold.

The DeGoey situation is interesting. If he does leave and we pick up McStay, he costs us a first round pick plus the $ which he is just not worth as a forward.

[mudlark]

There are plenty of State League players that could do what McStay does on $100,000 vs his rumored $600.000

I think you’re underestimating what McStay does. There’s plenty of State League players around the size of McStay who can’t do what McStay does. Physicality at AFL level and ability to take a mark in the forward line at AFL level isn’t an easy art. What he’s not is elite, like Cameron or Lynch. Cameron and Lynch aren’t available. McStay is. He wants to return to Victoria. I’m not saying he’s worth the reported $600,000 a year he’s wanting. What I can’t understand is why we didn’t make a play for Peter Wright and allowed him to walk to Essendon for virtually nothing. Terrible mistake by the previous administration. Graham Wright is correcting the ship. Pity we didn’t have Graham Wright a couple of years ago. He could have avoided all the damage done to the Treloar contract and the Stephenson situation.

Agree. There was a spell a few weeks ago where Wright didn’t kick a goal for three consecutive games but nobody notices that. They just see him kick a goal and say, Geez, he should have been at Collingwood. Same as McStay, he was pretty ordinary last night, got his hands to a bit of the ball but couldn’t finish. He didn’t get to 100 plus games playing like that every week. Most thought he would be dropped when both Hipwood and Daniher were back but it hadn’t happened yet, so they must rate him.
What people miss about trading for players is that not every player wants to come to Collingwood just because we want them to come to the club. There’s 18 clubs out there across the country and all provide different on field opportunities, present different contracts, while some can also offer additional lures like bigger crowds, career after footy, go home factor etc. Point being, when you have a player who seemingly is keen to play for your club and doesn’t come as a trade, you need to consider these guys seriously. We’re also talking about a player who fits our list profile perfectly ( tall, 100 + games, 26 )
I still think there’s a fair chance if McStay comes to the club, then either one of Krueger or McStay could be trialled in the backline during the off season. They both started their AFL careers as defenders and it would probably balance out our list more evenly, since Howe is close to the end and that we have very little physical strength back there. I’m not fussed either way about McStay but this club hasn’t gone from 17th and a basket case to 7th with a bullet twelve months later on the back of making bad or rash decisions. You can bet the footy dept will have watched more than his game last night before making a final decision on him ( or McStay on us )

And herein lies the crux of the matter. Some have said his best is only 28 goals in a season. As the fourth ranked forward behind Daniher, Hipwood and Cameron that’s not as bad as people make out. Our No1 forwards best is 38 back in 2018. Hopefully key crack that this season. I’ve seen a fair bit of McStay over his course and he has played some ripping games and won a few games of his own boot. Last nights game was indeed poor , but name me a player who doesn’t have one. It was the. Charlie Cameron show last night.

[swoop42]

I can see a few reasons why our interest in McStay may have increased as our season has worn on.

1. Kreuger who we targeted as a key forward option has suffered a serious shoulder injury and this comes on top of an injury history whilst at Geelong. The club may well have genuine fears over his body and it's ability to withstand his courageous yet kamikaze brand of football. Even if fit with only 5 senior AFL games to his name he remains a speculative prospect. Ash Johnson came to the club as a mature aged tall forward option with x-factor but due to a serious hamstring injury earlier this season is yet to make his senior AFL debut. Fair to say his value at the top level remains a mystery. Has now returned to VFL level the last 2 weeks but is so far struggling. Wilson a tall utility will miss the rest of the season with a back injury, they can be problematic to overcome so who knows what the future holds for him.

2.Roughead has retired. Keane never came back from Ireland. Dean is returning from a serious foot injury and is yet to debut at AFL level. Kelly has had to deal with multiple medium term injuries on top of 2 years of KP development lost due to COVID. McMahon wasn't some prized top 10 KP prospect upon arrival and was lightly framed. If he's to make it patience will be required. Both he and Kelly have been trialed up forward before making the switch to defence. While our first preference for McStay might well be as a forward I'm wondering if he could also offer us insurance if called upon as a key defensive option? Remember Roughead became our full back after filling the ruck role during the Bulldogs 2016 premiership season. Mihocek was originally seen as mature aged key defensive depth when first drafted out of the VFL. It's not out of the question.

3.Has our development this season progressed quicker than the club expected and with the emergence of young players like Daicos, Ginnivan, Henry, McCreery, Noble, Quaynor and Lipinski we are going to give our old guard one last chance of a Premiership by targeting a player like McStay who with 151 games under his belt can give us some immediate key position depth that isn't classed as speculative.

[Magpietothemax]

^

Good summary Swoop. i can see now why we might be looking at mcstay. your third point is particularly poignant, ie giving pendles and sidey one last crack at a flag next year, given the astonishing rise of the young group.

[Boot]

Stuff waiting for next year, this years flag is there the taking! Collingwood has beaten Melbourne the past two times we have met them, as well as Fremantle & Carlton. This proves that Collingwood has the ability & game plan to be a serious contender this year. If we can overcome a dangerous Suns team on their home ground tomorrow then a top four finish is achievable and from there anything is possible. Go Pies!

[Magpietothemax]

Stuff waiting for next year, this years flag is there the taking! Collingwood has beaten Melbourne the past two times we have met them, as well as Fremantle & Carlton. This proves that Collingwood has the ability & game plan to be a serious contender this year. If we can overcome a dangerous Suns team on their home ground tomorrow then a top four finish is achievable and from there anything is possible. Go Pies!

i didn't negate that possiblity. i was commenting on why we might be interested in getting mcstay for next year. if we win the flag this year, then obviously the desire to get mcstay would be significantly diminished.

[RudeBoy]

All the rationales aside, I’m concerned that McStay simply isn’t much of a player.

[Pies2016]

2023 Ready made key defenders - Moore, Dean ( ? )
Ready made key forwards - Krueger, McStay, Miochek
Ready made ruck / forwards - Cameron, Cox ( if he’s there )
For mine, someone amongst those forwards goes to the backline. Leppitsch coached McStay as a key defender in his three years at the Lions. … just saying.

[woftam]

[quote="RudeBoy"]All the rationales aside, I’m concerned that McStay simply isn’t much of a player.