Hindsight is a geniuspiedys wrote:^
Trade Targets ~ Free Agency & MSD player movements
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Makes you wonder, since Buckley was such a poor coach according to some and that Hine is also so poor at his job, just who was responsible for three successive finals campaigns between 2018 - 2020.scoobydoo wrote:^
I’d also add once you get past pick 30 odd, there’s usually 17 other clubs who haven’t thought very highly of any of those late selections either, something that seems to be lost on many of the critics.
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piedys
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Have another look at the finals teams in that period, and tell me how many players selected had to be POACHED from other clubs, to make us even remotely competitive, once we lost Swan?Pies2016 wrote:Makes you wonder, since Buckley was such a poor coach according to some and that Hine is also so poor at his job, just who was responsible for three successive finals campaigns between 2018 - 2020.
True, but... 17 other clubs aren't our problem, nor held accountable by the members at our AGM.Pies2016 wrote:I’d also add once you get past pick 30 odd, there’s usually 17 other clubs who haven’t thought very highly of any of those late selections either, something that seems to be lost on many of the critics.
M I L L A N E 4 2 forever
Until the domino that is De Goey and his contract status falls we're all really flying blind surrounding our potential trade movements.
The only thing I'm fairly certain about is that if De Goey chooses to exercise his free agency rights and our interest in McStay is real and strong then I can't believe we'll allow him to walk without any compensation due to that F/A player movement. Given that McStay is no Harry McKay that simply wouldn't sit well with the Collingwood masses and especially so when De Goey is still highly rated by many.
So do we force a trade or look to trade for McStay to preserve F/A compensation?
To force a trade I sense a lot of that would hinge on the size of the offer and whether the club and De Goey are parting on good terms.
In reality if De Goey is happy at the club and only leaving for the pay cheque but it's an amount the club isn't prepared to pay we would need to be certain De Goey would play along in trade negotiations and wouldn't accept the now improved terms (after we match offer) in seeking to remain at the club.
Of course this game of bluff generally isn't a game of bluff at all, it's purely theatre by the parties involved and after the pursued player has talked about wanting his current club to receive adequate compensation and the club doing the pursuing huffs and puffs a deal eventually gets done at the death.
If De Goey and the club however had a public falling out our bargaining power would be greatly diminished and even the most gullible couldn't be convinced we were genuine in our desire to match the offer and welcome him back on another clubs contract terms.
So how about a trade for McStay? What would that look like?
Well firstly any trade for McStay would need to benefit Brisbane beyond what F/A compensation could provide and that isn't up for debate. They aren't doing us any favours.
When looking at possible compensation for McStay then I'd imagine that would end up being second round with a small potential for end of 1st.
If the former then on current ladder position that would deliver pick 34 (542pts) for Brisbane. If the latter it would be pick 19 (948pts).
Our current 3rd round selections of 41 and 45 equates to 759pts (equivalent of pick 25) add in our pick 47 also and it equates to 1075pts (equivalent of pick 16).
Of course allocating points for draft selections are a pretty useless measurement in evaluating a trade between two clubs IMO unless one party requires points and thankfully Brisbane with F/S and potential pick 1 Will Ashcroft do. Can we ledger that to our advantage?
Unfortunately it isn't quite as straightforward as that though and for Brisbane to take advantage of a 217pt differential between compensation selection 34 or traded in selections 41 + 45 an additional vacant list space is required. If we were to include pick 47 also this would obviously provide a greater points windfall but those selections coupled with Brisbane's own pick 33 and 43 still wouldn't be enough for them to cover a bid on Ashcroft at pick 1 and would require a minimum of 5 vacant list positions.
Obviously Brisbane still have a 2022 1st round selection up their sleeve as well as the potential to trade future picks to avoid any deficit but as history tells us they'll most likely be open to offers owing to Ashcroft and I wonder if us trading our future 1st for their current pick 15 would a) be the best offer put to them and b) make them more amenable to trading McStay for multiple 3rd round selections.
I'm thinking:
Collingwood out: De Goey via free agency, 2023 1st round selection traded to Brisbane, 2022 3rd round selections 41, 45, 47 traded to Brisbane
Collingwood in: De Goey 1st round free agency compensation, Brisbane 2022 1st round selection, Daniel McStay
This would leave us with 3 2022 1st round selections available and with the possibility of using 1 or 2 selections for the now in the form of ready made players (midfielders?) and the eye to the future with a KP national draft selection.
If De Goey decides to leave and we aren't in a position or decide not to force a trade then paying a little over for McStay via trade with the 3 3rd picks is a much better outcome than sacrificing a 1st round compensation pick.
P.S- If the AFL indicate to Brisbane they will receive an end of 1st round compensation pick due to our contract offer then them accepting a trade for McStay would seem to be off the table. The chances of them trading for our future 1st could increase though should we wish to fast track our refresh by 12 months.
P.P.S- I still hope De Goey re-signs and knuckles down.
The only thing I'm fairly certain about is that if De Goey chooses to exercise his free agency rights and our interest in McStay is real and strong then I can't believe we'll allow him to walk without any compensation due to that F/A player movement. Given that McStay is no Harry McKay that simply wouldn't sit well with the Collingwood masses and especially so when De Goey is still highly rated by many.
So do we force a trade or look to trade for McStay to preserve F/A compensation?
To force a trade I sense a lot of that would hinge on the size of the offer and whether the club and De Goey are parting on good terms.
In reality if De Goey is happy at the club and only leaving for the pay cheque but it's an amount the club isn't prepared to pay we would need to be certain De Goey would play along in trade negotiations and wouldn't accept the now improved terms (after we match offer) in seeking to remain at the club.
Of course this game of bluff generally isn't a game of bluff at all, it's purely theatre by the parties involved and after the pursued player has talked about wanting his current club to receive adequate compensation and the club doing the pursuing huffs and puffs a deal eventually gets done at the death.
If De Goey and the club however had a public falling out our bargaining power would be greatly diminished and even the most gullible couldn't be convinced we were genuine in our desire to match the offer and welcome him back on another clubs contract terms.
So how about a trade for McStay? What would that look like?
Well firstly any trade for McStay would need to benefit Brisbane beyond what F/A compensation could provide and that isn't up for debate. They aren't doing us any favours.
When looking at possible compensation for McStay then I'd imagine that would end up being second round with a small potential for end of 1st.
If the former then on current ladder position that would deliver pick 34 (542pts) for Brisbane. If the latter it would be pick 19 (948pts).
Our current 3rd round selections of 41 and 45 equates to 759pts (equivalent of pick 25) add in our pick 47 also and it equates to 1075pts (equivalent of pick 16).
Of course allocating points for draft selections are a pretty useless measurement in evaluating a trade between two clubs IMO unless one party requires points and thankfully Brisbane with F/S and potential pick 1 Will Ashcroft do. Can we ledger that to our advantage?
Unfortunately it isn't quite as straightforward as that though and for Brisbane to take advantage of a 217pt differential between compensation selection 34 or traded in selections 41 + 45 an additional vacant list space is required. If we were to include pick 47 also this would obviously provide a greater points windfall but those selections coupled with Brisbane's own pick 33 and 43 still wouldn't be enough for them to cover a bid on Ashcroft at pick 1 and would require a minimum of 5 vacant list positions.
Obviously Brisbane still have a 2022 1st round selection up their sleeve as well as the potential to trade future picks to avoid any deficit but as history tells us they'll most likely be open to offers owing to Ashcroft and I wonder if us trading our future 1st for their current pick 15 would a) be the best offer put to them and b) make them more amenable to trading McStay for multiple 3rd round selections.
I'm thinking:
Collingwood out: De Goey via free agency, 2023 1st round selection traded to Brisbane, 2022 3rd round selections 41, 45, 47 traded to Brisbane
Collingwood in: De Goey 1st round free agency compensation, Brisbane 2022 1st round selection, Daniel McStay
This would leave us with 3 2022 1st round selections available and with the possibility of using 1 or 2 selections for the now in the form of ready made players (midfielders?) and the eye to the future with a KP national draft selection.
If De Goey decides to leave and we aren't in a position or decide not to force a trade then paying a little over for McStay via trade with the 3 3rd picks is a much better outcome than sacrificing a 1st round compensation pick.
P.S- If the AFL indicate to Brisbane they will receive an end of 1st round compensation pick due to our contract offer then them accepting a trade for McStay would seem to be off the table. The chances of them trading for our future 1st could increase though should we wish to fast track our refresh by 12 months.
P.P.S- I still hope De Goey re-signs and knuckles down.
He's mad. He's bad. He's MaynHARD!
From the 2018 list which players did we POACH? Treloar? Hoskin-Elliott?piedys wrote:Have another look at the finals teams in that period, and tell me how many players selected had to be POACHED from other clubs, to make us even remotely competitive, once we lost Swan?Pies2016 wrote:Makes you wonder, since Buckley was such a poor coach according to some and that Hine is also so poor at his job, just who was responsible for three successive finals campaigns between 2018 - 2020.
True, but... 17 other clubs aren't our problem, nor held accountable by the members at our AGM.Pies2016 wrote:I’d also add once you get past pick 30 odd, there’s usually 17 other clubs who haven’t thought very highly of any of those late selections either, something that seems to be lost on many of the critics.
Swoop, this is a great analysis of the complexities / opportunities that will unfold for the club at the end of the season. Funnily enough I thought about posting similar but decided it was to multi - layered to explain. I don’t disagree with any of your observations. Interestingly enough, what has changed recently, is that yet another potential Lions F / S prospect is ripping it up in the U18s. Jaspa Fletcher ( Adrian Fletcher ) was BOG for Allies last weekend and is rocketing up the draft order. Ashcroft looks the likely number one pick to me, so with the rise of Fletcher, the Lions will require points for days just to set up for Fletcher being called out in the twenties ( ? ) P S - remember, neither are yet to nominate the Lions as their club of choice and Ashcroft has been playing for the Dragons in Vic, so he certainly has some Vic ties also. If Ashcroft was to decide to stay in Vic, then everything resets yet againswoop42 wrote:^
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piedys
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scoobydoo wrote:From the 2018 list which players did we POACH? Treloar? Hoskin-Elliott?piedys wrote:Have another look at the finals teams in that period, and tell me how many players selected had to be POACHED from other clubs, to make us even remotely competitive, once we lost Swan?Pies2016 wrote:Makes you wonder, since Buckley was such a poor coach according to some and that Hine is also so poor at his job, just who was responsible for three successive finals campaigns between 2018 - 2020.
M I L L A N E 4 2 forever
^ ^ ^
Like every recruiting officer / talent identification manager, Hine has had his share of misfires. This is what happens when you deal in an inexact science. Show me a club who doesn’t have its share of skeletons over the last 10 plus years. Some do it better than Hine but plenty do it a lot worse.
However, it’s a total misconception to think Hine has much at all to do with making trade decisions on AFL players. His job is to spot and evaluate talent from lower leagues around the country, not to facilitate trades for players who have been in the system for years already. Hine simply isn’t needed for any input on AFL players because there is already a wealth of performance based data on those players ( a player like D Cameron may be an exception because he spent most of his career in the NEAFL before his couple AFL games )
It’s the footy dept, outside of the talent spotters, who make decisions on any trading for AFL players. The coach would deserve more criticism of bad trading choices compared to Hine because the coach would have seen those players first hand repeatedly. The only time Hine is involved in player trades is if a ) he may assist with evaluating a player already on an AFL list who has played very little senior footy ( Cameron, Murray, maybe Lipinski)
OR b ) he would be asked for feedback as to what we could be missing out on at the draft if we were to give up pick #X to secure that player.
Like every recruiting officer / talent identification manager, Hine has had his share of misfires. This is what happens when you deal in an inexact science. Show me a club who doesn’t have its share of skeletons over the last 10 plus years. Some do it better than Hine but plenty do it a lot worse.
However, it’s a total misconception to think Hine has much at all to do with making trade decisions on AFL players. His job is to spot and evaluate talent from lower leagues around the country, not to facilitate trades for players who have been in the system for years already. Hine simply isn’t needed for any input on AFL players because there is already a wealth of performance based data on those players ( a player like D Cameron may be an exception because he spent most of his career in the NEAFL before his couple AFL games )
It’s the footy dept, outside of the talent spotters, who make decisions on any trading for AFL players. The coach would deserve more criticism of bad trading choices compared to Hine because the coach would have seen those players first hand repeatedly. The only time Hine is involved in player trades is if a ) he may assist with evaluating a player already on an AFL list who has played very little senior footy ( Cameron, Murray, maybe Lipinski)
OR b ) he would be asked for feedback as to what we could be missing out on at the draft if we were to give up pick #X to secure that player.
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scoobydoo wrote:From the 2018 list which players did we POACH? Treloar? Hoskin-Elliott?piedys wrote:Have another look at the finals teams in that period, and tell me how many players selected had to be POACHED from other clubs, to make us even remotely competitive, once we lost Swan?Pies2016 wrote:Makes you wonder, since Buckley was such a poor coach according to some and that Hine is also so poor at his job, just who was responsible for three successive finals campaigns between 2018 - 2020.
True, but... 17 other clubs aren't our problem, nor held accountable by the members at our AGM.Pies2016 wrote:I’d also add once you get past pick 30 odd, there’s usually 17 other clubs who haven’t thought very highly of any of those late selections either, something that seems to be lost on many of the critics.