Horse racing and betting

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Sat Aug 20, 2022 7:51 am

Came flying home from near last to finish a close up fifth.

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Wed Aug 24, 2022 8:12 pm

Is backing up at Dalby tomorrow. 33/1 is way overs IMO and a couple of bucks each way will give you a good run for your money.

Race 7 #11.

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Fri Aug 26, 2022 6:59 am

Absolutely slaughtered by the jockey. Tramped 3 wide the trip, finished 3 lengths 5th. Had to cover an extra 100m out in the cheap seats. She had every opportunity to slot in behind the leaders early.
That's the thing when you put an apprentice on board, you get a claim, but lose a brain.

K · Post by K » Mon Oct 24, 2022 4:20 am

sb Melbourne Cup

Deauville Legend 5.00
Loft 8.00
Durston, Without A Fight 13.00
Hoo Ya Mal, Montefilia 15.00
Camorra, Duais 17.00
Lunar Flare, Vow And Declare 19.00
Gold Trip, Knights Order, Young Werther 21.00
Smokin' Romans 23.00
Emissary, Realm of Flowers, Stockman 26.00
Alegron 31.00
Daqiansweet Junior 34.00
Interpretation, Point Nepean, Rodrigo Diaz 41.00
Makram, Numerian 51.00
...

Post by **Donny** » Mon Oct 24, 2022 7:49 pm

Early thoughts mate ?

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:02 am

I've backed Knights Order at 50/1 prior to his excellent 3rd in the Caulfield Cup last week.

Last years Sydney Cup winner (on a Heavy 10 track) will be there when the whips are cracking.

The lightly raced ( 31 starts for 9 wins & 6 placings) 8yo loves the distance (3 starts for 2 wins) and a heavy/soft track (13 starts for 5 wins & 4 placings).

Since returning from a spell he hasn't put a hoof wrong in preperation for the Cup.

His first up (September 3rd) win in the Group 2 Chelmsford, on a heavy 10 track, over 1600m was quite remarkable.
He followed that up (September 17th) with a gallant 3rd in the Group 3 Kingston Town over the 2000m on a Soft 7.
He was then swamped late at Flemington in the Group 1 Turnbull (October 1st) to finish a close up 4th on a Good 3 track.

Gai Waterhouse has him peaking for this race and the wetter the track, the better. Flemington is currently a Soft 6, having had 30mm of rain in the past 7 days. With up to another 60mm forecast before the big race, I can see this being a very nice pay day.

K · Post by K » Tue Oct 25, 2022 8:32 pm

Interesting thing 'bout those odds is they really are fixed.

Scratchings too bad; no refund... OTOH therefore remaining odds won't be shrunk...

I'm looking for a really safe bet... (i.e. small return okay)... Maybe Melb. Cup is not the race for that?

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Wed Oct 26, 2022 7:33 am

It's like a roulette wheel, with less numbers.

I always back #4 in the Cup and I have sets of favourite numbers for trifectas and quartets. I won over $3000 on a $1 mystery quartet one year.
You can box 10 horses in a trifecta for $10, which will give you about 1.5% of the divvy, it could pay $100k... it could pay $600.

lazzadesilva · Post by **lazzadesilva** » Wed Oct 26, 2022 12:49 pm

Hey Skids (or anyone else) can you give me an idea about who to back in today’s Bendigo cup?

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Wed Oct 26, 2022 1:42 pm

The 3 & 7 look to have it between them. I like the 4 at odds, but 7 starters only pays 1st & 2nd for a place. A novelty bet for me.

I'll do a 1st 4.

4 to win
3,5 & 7 for second
Field for 3rd
Field for 4th

$20 for 33.33%. If the 4 wins and the 8 sneaks in for 3rd or 4th it could pay a few hundred. If the 3 & 7 both miss a place it could pay a few grand. If the 4 doesn't win, I have no chance

lazzadesilva · Post by **lazzadesilva** » Thu Oct 27, 2022 11:38 am

Skids, I think you did very well to pick 3 out of the 4 numbers you predicted in the Bendigo cup. Excellent work.

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Thu Oct 27, 2022 5:34 pm

lazzadesilva wrote:Skids, I think you did very well to pick 3 out of the 4 numbers you predicted in the Bendigo cup. Excellent work.

Cheers.

Yes, the 4 was just a long shot hope at getting a decent quaddie result for a small outlay. The 8 I mentioned did end up sneaking in for 4th, with the 3,5 & 7 I had for 2nd coming 1, 2 & 3.

In hindsight, I should have stuck with my initial assessment, the 3 & 7 had it between them.

A first 4 ticket with 3, 7 for 1st, 3, 7 for 2nd and the field for 3rd and 4th would have cost $20 for 50% divvy pay out. The first 4 paid $165, so for $20 an $82.50 return.

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Thu Oct 27, 2022 7:28 pm

#10 - Playing Up in the next at Northam @ 30/1. Runs in 8 minutes

Skids · Post by **Skids** » Thu Oct 27, 2022 7:39 pm

Handy 5th, too wide the journey, one to follow.

K · Post by K » Sat Oct 29, 2022 5:28 am

K wrote:sb Melbourne Cup

Deauville Legend 5.00
Loft 8.00
Durston, Without A Fight 13.00
Hoo Ya Mal, Montefilia 15.00
Camorra, Duais 17.00
Lunar Flare, Vow And Declare 19.00
Gold Trip, Knights Order, Young Werther 21.00
...

2nd fave Loft has been scratched.

Current odds:

Deauville Legend 3.80
Without A Fight 8.50
Gold Trip 11.00
Hoo Ya Mal, Montefilia 13.00
Lunar Fare, Vow And Declare, Young Werther, Knights Order, Realm of Flowers 17.00
...

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Horse racing and betting