Ladder predictor 2023

[David]

Melbourne guaranteed to finish top 4 ahead of Carlton now. 2nd, 3rd and 4th still up for grabs (Port lead Fremantle by 9 points at half time.)

[Jezza]

Revised ladder prediction.

1. Collingwood
2. Brisbane Lions
3. Port Adelaide
4. Melbourne
5. Carlton
6. Sydney
7. St Kilda
8. GWS

[Pies4shaw]

Carlton will be desperate to lose (which is what they're best at). Under the current system, no team has won the Flag from 5th.

[swoop42]

I thought I'd take a look at the record of teams who have compiled 66+ premiership points in a season.

The seasons where teams finished more than 2 games clear on top are bolded as I thought these less accurately reflect this year and the gap between Collingwood and the rest of the top 4. This proved no guarantee of a flag however.

I chose 1987 as the starting point as this was the first season interstate teams joined the then VFL competition.

1987 Carlton 72pt Premier
Hawthorn 68pt Grand Final (33pt loss)
1988 Hawthorn 76pt Premier
1989 Hawthorn 76pt Premier
Essendon 68pt Preliminary Final (94pt loss)
1990 Essendon 68pt Grand Final (48pt loss)
1991 West Coast 76pt Grand Final (53pt loss)
1995 Carlton 80pt Premier
1996 Sydney 66pt Grand Final (43pt loss)
1999 Essendon 72pt Preliminary Final (1pt loss)
Kangaroos 68pt Premier
2000 Essendon 84pt Premier
2001 Essendon 68pt Grand Final (26pt loss)
Brisbane 68pt Premier
2002 Port Adelaide 72pt Preliminary Final (56pt loss)
Brisbane 68pt Premier
2003 Port Adelaide 72pt Preliminary Final (44pt loss)
2005 Adelaide 68pt Preliminary Final (16pt loss)
West Coast 68pt Grand Final (4pt loss)
2006 West Coast 68pt Premier
2007 Geelong 72pt Premier
2008 Geelong 84pt Grand Final (26pt loss)
Hawthorn 68pt Premier
2009 St Kilda 80pt Grand Final (12pt loss)
Geelong 72pt Premier
2010 Collingwood 70pt Premier
Geelong 68pt Preliminary Final (41pt loss)
2011 Collingwood 80pt Grand Final (38pt loss)
Geelong 76pt Premier
Hawthorn 72pt Preliminary Final (3pt loss)
West Coast 68pt Preliminary Final (48pt loss)
2012 Hawthorn 68pt Grand Final (10pt loss)
Adelaide 68pt Preliminary Final (5pt loss)
2013 Hawthorn 76pt Premier
Geelong 72pt Preliminary Final (5pt loss)
Fremantle 66pt Grand Final (15pt loss)
2014 Sydney 68pt Grand Final (63pt loss)
Hawthorn 68pt Premier
Geelong 68pt Semi-Final (6pt loss)
2015 Fremantle 68pt Preliminary Final (27pt loss)
West Coast 66pt Grand Final (46pt loss)
2016 Sydney 68pt Grand Final (22pt loss)
Geelong 68pt Preliminary Final (37pt loss)
Hawthorn 68pt Semi-Final (23pt loss)
2018 Richmond 72pt Preliminary Final (39pt loss)
2021 Melbourne 70pt Premier
Port Adelaide 68pt Preliminary Final (71pt loss)
2022 Geelong 72pt Premier
2023 Collingwood 72pt ?

Between 1987-2022 48 sides have finished the season with 16.5 wins and over with only two failing to progress beyond the semi-final stage.

Neither of those two sides finished the H&A season on top however.

Of the 27 seasons represented in these figures on only 9 occasions has the eventual Premier come from those teams who compiled 64pts (potential equivalent of 68pts in 2023) or less.

Of those 9 occasions the side that finished on top of the ladder still made the grand final 5 times.

The lowest amount of points compiled by any eventual Premier was Brisbane in 2003 who finished with 58 (potential equivalent of 62pts in 2023).

If history is any guide this would indicate that the Premier will come from the top 4 again though Melbourne currently on 60pts appear shaky if they can't get over Sydney.

The chances of us not making the Preliminary Final at a minimum appear very slim and I'm backing us to make the Grand Final.

From there may the best team win and may that team be Collingwood.

F*** Champion Data.

[Jezza]

^ The only thing I'm wary about with this stat is we played 23 games (due to Gather Round) rather than the standard 22 we've been accustomed to for decades.

[swoop42]

I've update my post to include seasons/teams who finished with 66pts and above.

This allows for us having the benefit of one extra game.

[David]

Top four now set, so it comes down to the last two games to decide 5th to 8th and the elimination finals. Here are those positions with each combination of outcomes:

If Melbourne and Carlton win: 5. Carlton, 6. St. Kilda, 7. Sydney, 8. Western Bulldogs

If Melbourne and GWS win: 5. Carlton, 6. St. Kilda, 7. GWS, 8. Sydney
(St. Kilda and GWS switch places if the Giants win by around 42 points)

If Sydney and Carlton win: 5. Carlton, 6. Sydney, 7. St. Kilda, 8. Western Bulldogs

If Sydney and GWS win: 5. Carlton, 6. Sydney, 7. St. Kilda, 8. GWS
(Carlton and Sydney switch places if the combined margin of the two games is around 50+ points, and St Kilda and GWS can also switch places if the Giants win by around 42 points)

[K]

...
F*** Champion Data.