Our draft record under Derek Hine et al

[inxs88]

^ The challenge is delisting those who feel entitled to play on but may not deserve it. That shall take some finesse and ruthlessness.

[Simply_Brutal]

^

That’s a fair assessment and an interesting comparison between 2010 and 2011 I hadn’t really considered, but it stands to reason that a team made up of 20-23 year olds wouldn’t change a great deal. (Our age profile in 2011 was the youngest in the league, from memory?)

That said, my overarching point was not a matter of playing youth at all costs, but instead that it seems our selection is (seemingly)…. boring? Players can be out of form for extended periods and it’s excused, or injury concerns are present but we insist on putting them out again. EG, Daicos goes into the Hawks 2023 game with an injury from Port, while also Mitchell and Pendles both banged up recently too (as a couple of examples). Thankfully for the latter two there was no aggravation but I don’t see the benefit in risking 30+ players who are under a cloud.

I’d prefer to see a revolving door of the elder players getting a week off and allowing others to get a run in the meantime but perhaps there’s more at-play that I’m not seeing.

[Simply_Brutal]

Malthouse was 15 years ago. And he would always play a newbie for one game and then drop them back to the magoos for months without giving them at least two weeks in a row to settle. Honestly, if anyone at the club starts reminiscing “Malthouse did it better, we need to go back to his coaching style” then we’re $%$ed.

Right, because that’s what I said?
People here reference the 1920’s but you’re spitting the dummy because of a constructive discussion around selection decisions and a reference to 14 years ago. Good job.

[RudeBoy]

The problem is not our 'deteriorating' veterans, but rather our lack of potential A grade talent in the magoos.

[LaurieHolden]

From 2015 - 2019, the only player (not FS) from the National Draft still on the list is IQ.
From 2020 - only McCreery has played a solid amount of games . We traded away Henry.

We seem to pick up players through trading who are doing well, but our inability to get meaningful contributions through the National Draft is a concern.

What'sinaname wrote: WarburtonLad, Our draft / trade strategy has been hit or miss since 2021..We've got 5 games from our entire 2021 National Draft selections and 1 game from the entire 2022 National Draft selection.

^ The drafting issues go back quite a few years and coupled with an intention to trade away Rd 1 picks, we are in a precarious position where have have very thin depth, coupled with an aging side. This isn't going to fix itself in the short term either.

That now moves us on from the 2021-2022 draft years you specified. So let's now look at the years you refer to ~

2015 AFL Draft and Trade Period (10 players in) https://www.draftguru.com.au/clubs/collingwood#2015
115 picks 30 trades 45 (avg)
Adam Treloar Traded for #2016R1 (Collingwood) + #7 + #65 (with #28) AA40: 2016, 2017, 2019.
James Aish Traded for #26 + #2016R2 (St Kilda)
Jeremy Howe Traded for #29 + #50 + Kennedy (with Toumpas) AA40: 2017; Prem: 2023

Organic picks remaining #32, #58, #63, #65.
National Draft pick 32 Brayden Sier
National Draft pick 58 Tom Phillips
National Draft pick 63 Rupert Wills
National Draft pick 65 Ben Crocker
Rookie Draft pick 25 Josh Smith
Rookie Draft pick 55 Tim Golds
Rookie Draft pick 64 Darrean Wyatt

5 of the Top 20 went to Sydney, GWS & Lions Academy picks (2 in the top 10)

6 players > pick #32 have gone on to play >100 games.
6 players from the rookie draft have gone on to play > 100 games.

So for 2015, without applying hindsight, was pick #7 and our 2016 first rounder too great a price to play for a player that has gone on to play 238 games? 3x AA squads while he was on our list. To date he's played 238 games.
2015 was a year we also traded in Jeremy Howe and James Aish.
2015 was about list requirements, not looking through to 2024.

I'll complete the 2016 + lists as we go. But what I'm getting to is, has our list management been that poor? Most of what you are referring to is what we are lacking in 2024. Hindsight from 2024 is subjective. Sure, we could have gone about it a different way.

Isolating the organic or National Draft is only part of a Clubs list management strategy. There's one deciding factor in all of this, and as it's been suggested, he should not have been allowed to over-ride the board or football departments list management decisions. It didn't happen during the Malthouse years, as Malthouse was able to stand his ground.
I'd suggest Hine has kept his position because the Club knows it has one of the best in the competition.

[What'sinaname]

^ Our trading has been mostly successful. Our drafting has been a disaster. We've whiffed at almost every draft pick...couldn't even land a speculative pick.

[inxs88]

Schoenamkers shall become a top player and at 194cm, versatile back/wing with booming kick and intercept ability, regret vibes are coming.

[Pies2016]

Schoenamkers shall become a top player and at 194cm, versatile back/wing with booming kick and intercept ability, regret vibes are coming.

Well the good news is, sixteen other clubs would also suffer from “ regret vibes “ around the same time.

[LaurieHolden]

^ Our trading has been mostly successful. Our drafting has been a disaster. We've whiffed at almost every draft pick...couldn't even land a speculative pick.

Trading and drafting aren't mutually exclusive. Honestly, how would you attempt to get into the draft without trading? Just more sensational adjectives thrown in for effect.
Throw away lines that our drafting hasn't been up to scratch is pointless without comparable analysis.

[qldmagpie67]

Conjecture snd hindsight are the biggest thoughts in drafting
In the mid 90’# when I was transferred from News head office to be part of a rugby league team they took over during the super league debacle I was privy to loads of information
At that stage they were looking to start a national draft (same basis basically as the AFL draft)
In preparation we were sent to the USA to speak with NFL clubs on there thoughts, planning and mindset on drafting
We general consensus was that drafting was truly a lottery in many ways.
The biggest thing they allowed for was most top #10 draft picks had a career average of just over 3 years (at that point in time 1997)
They believed more in trading for proven player than risk a high draft pick.
Mostly they used there top draft picks for a QB
It doesn’t mean they are right or wrong it just what they learned from there experiences.

[qldmagpie67]

So further to the above I thought I would do some research and see how it panned out here
Listed below based in champion data information is the top 20 players from 2011-2020 for highest rated player average per game minimum 100 games (midfielders/ on ballers/ wing)

Rank. Name.
1. G.Ablett jnr
2. P.Dangerfield
3. D.Swan
4. D.Martin
5. N.Fyfe
6. P.Cripps
7. S.Pendlebury
8. J.Selwood.
9. L.Neale
10. M.Bontepilli
11. T.Mitchell
12. D.Beams
13. L.Parker
14. J.Kennedy
15. S.Mitchell
16. A.Gaff
17. R.Slaone
18. D.Hannebury
19. T.Cotchin
20. T.Boak.

Side note there was 2 other current or former Collingwood players who made the top 50
Jack Crisp and Adam Treloar

I’ll go back now and find all there draft positions to see how it equates to ranking

[qldmagpie67]

Rank. Name. Draft position
1. G.Ablett jnr. 40 F/S
2. P.Dangerfield. 10
3. D.Swan. 58
4. D.Martin. 3
5. N.Fyfe. 20
6. P.Cripps. 13
7. S.Pendlebury 5
8. J.Selwood. 7
9. L.Neale. 58
10. M.Bontempilli. 4
11. T.Mitchell. 21 F/S
12. D.Beams. 29
13. L.Parker. 40
14. J.Kennedy. 40 F/s
15. S.Mitchell. 36
16. A.Gaff 4
17. R.Sloane. 44
18. D.Hannebury 30
19. T.Cotchin. 2
20. T.Boak. 5

Only 8 top 10 picks on the list
3 Father/Son selections
11 players drafted in 1st
9 players drafted in 2nd round or later
So for that period it was nearly a 50/50 split between 1st round picks and later picks turning out to be champions of there era
Make of it what you will but high draft pick doesn’t mean success in my mind

[LaurieHolden]

What'sinaname wrote:
^ Our trading has been mostly successful. Our drafting has been a disaster. We've whiffed at almost every draft pick...couldn't even land a speculative pick.

2016 AFL Draft and Trade Period (12 players in) https://www.draftguru.com.au/clubs/collingwood#2016
127 picks 39 trades 51 (avg)

Lynden Dunn Traded for #47 (with #51)
Will Hoskin-Elliott Traded for #2017R2 (Collingwood) Prem: 2023
Chris Mayne Unrestricted Free Agent
Daniel Wells Unrestricted Free Agent

1st Round pick traded to GWS as part of the 2015 Adam Treloar trade.
Organic picks remaining #30, #35, #50, #57.
National Draft pick 30 Sam McLarty
National Draft pick 35 (FS) Callum Brown
National Draft pick 50 Kayle Kirby
National Draft pick 57 (FS) Josh Daicos AA: 2023; B&F: 2023; AA40: 2022; Prem: 2023
Rookie Draft pick 7 Mitch McCarthy
Rookie Draft pick 24 Henry Schade
Rookie Draft pick 40 Liam Mackie
Rookie Draft pick 51 Max Lynch

4 of the Top 20 went to GWS & Suns picks (2 in the top 10)
7 players > pick #32 have gone on to play >100 games. (inc. Josh Daicos - and every Club will be wondering how Nick Larkey slipped to #73.
2 players from the rookie draft have gone on to play > 100 games.

So for 2016, without applying hindsight, was 2015 pick #7 and our 2016 first rounder too great a price to play for a player that has gone on to play 238 games? 3x AA squads while he was on our list. To date he's played 238 games.
To date there has been 1 AA player to come from the 1st Round.

[memoryofmchale]

All good in theory until the real reason he slipped to pick 62 and was lucky to be picked up at all emerges.
Basically his character assessment saw clubs close the book.

That is correct. Across high school, expelled due to discipline issues and bullying, terrible reputation in the area. Recruiters phoned up the school that kicked him given it had numerous potential draftees in 2023 and 2024 (two were drafted first-round). The report was not positive and keep in mind the place dealt with a young Tarryn. Then there was his alcohol stupidity. Pressuring underage teammates to drink as a leader against explicit team rules not to.

He lasted less than two months and was in strife once again with alcohol I believe. Wasn't a fitness issue.

He has talent but not at the cost. Bullet dodged. This is like his third or fourth major chance and he's not even 20.

[LaurieHolden]

For the record, we've had 13 Top 10 picks since 1999 (24 years) ~
Under the Malthouse years ~
Malthouse landed at the CFC in 2000, hot off the 1999 draft where we had landed ~
1999 National Draft pick 1 (Priority), Josh Fraser
1999 National Draft pick 7 Danny Roach
His first organic top 10 pick ~
2000 National Draft pick 3 Alan Didak
But it was another 4 years before we had another Top 10 pick.
2001 > pick #10
2002 > pick #10
2003 > pick #10
2004 National Draft pick 10 Chris Egan
2005 National Draft pick 2 (Priority) Dale Thomas (awarded clubs draft picks if they lost key players to retirement or free agency - as compensation for the loss of Chris Tarrant, who had left Collingwood to join the Fremantle)
2005 National Draft pick 5 Scott Pendlebury
2006 National Draft pick 8 Ben Reid
2006 National Draft pick 10 Nathan Brown
2007 R1 pick >10 traded
2008 > pick #10
2009 > pick #10
2010 R1 trade bundle
2011 R1 trade bundle
2012 > pick #10
Under the Buckley years ~
2013 National Draft pick 6 Matthew Scharenberg
2013 National Draft pick 10 Nathan Freeman
2014 National Draft pick 5 Jordan De Goey
2014 National Draft pick 9 (FS) Darcy Moore
2015 R1 traded
2016 R1 traded
2017 National Draft pick 6 Jaidyn Stephenson
2018 >#10
2019 R1 traded (Brisbane / Beams)
2020 > pick #10
2021 > pick #10
2022 > pick #10
2023 > pick #10

Outside of the salary cap debacle in 2018, the 2013 organic draft is the one that sticks out as still having an impact to this day.
Pick #6 Scharenberg was touted as a schoolboy Wayne Carey, whose career was later cruelled by injury and pick #10 Freeman simply remains a bust, albeit another career constrained by injury.