The Toughest Run Home

[stoliboy]

OK so at the end of Round 21 with 3 games remaining the ladder looks like this:

Pos. Club W D L % Points
1st Sydney Swans 14 0 6 126.1 56
2nd Brisbane Lions 13 1 6 125.1 54
3rd Port Adelaide 13 0 7 113.6 52
4th GWS Giants 13 0 7 111.2 52
5th Geelong Cats 13 0 7 108.9 52
6th Fremantle 12 1 7 116.7 50
7th Western Bulldogs 12 0 8 122.4 48
8th Carlton 12 0 8 112.1 48
9th Essendon 11 1 8 95.9 46
10th Hawthorn 11 0 9 104.1 44
11th Collingwood 10 2 8 100.2 44
12th Melbourne 10 0 10 97.9 40

Fremantle: Geelong (H), GWS (A), Port (H)
Western Bulldogs: Adelaide (A), North Melbourne (H), GWS (H)
Carlton: Hawthorn (H), West Coast (A), St Kilda (H)
Essendon: Gold Coast (H), Sydney (A), Brisbane (A)
Hawthorn: Carlton (A), Richmond (H), North Melbourne (H)
Collingwood: Sydney (A), Brisbane (H), Melbourne (A)
Melbourne: Port (H), Gold Coast (A), Collingwood (H)

Round 22: If we beat the Swans AWAY next week we could be 9th and out of the 8 on percentage if:
- Essendon lose to Gold Coast
- Carlton lose to Hawthorn

It would also be nice if:
- Western Bulldogs lose to Adelaide
- Fremantle lose to Geelong

BUT the following week Round 23 is a shocker for the Pies

So many of the teams we would hope to pass have easy games:
- Carlton play West Coast
- Western Bulldogs play North
- Hawthorn play Richmond (Hawthorn also play North the following week!)

[i hate carlton]

Those draws have really cost us.

[RudeBoy]

The Giants could potentially fall out of the 8 as well. They play:

Lions (A)
Dockers (H)
Bulldogs (A)

[piedys]

Those draws have really cost us.

No, the maggot umpires like bald headed dog Nicholls, who engineered the draws, have really cost us...

[RudeBoy]

Relying on us winning our remaining 3 games, we'll finish on 56 points, and jump 3 spots on the ladder just inside the 8.....if....

The Hawks lose to the Blues (A), but beat the Tigers (H) and Roos (H), they'll finish on 52.
The Bombers beat the Suns (H), but lose to Swans (H) and Lions (A), they'll finish on 50.
The Dockers beat the Cats (H), but lose to the Giants (A) and Port (A), they'll finish on 54.

Also, if the Giants lose to Lions (A), beat Dockers (H), lose to the Dogs (A), they'll finish on 56. Currently they have an 11% buffer on us, but if they lose badly in a couple of their games AND we win well in ours, there's a slim chance we'd overtake them as well.

[Prometheus]

So say we end up outside the finals.... all is not lost.
We benefit from being in a better position in the draft don't we?

[The Black and White Lion]

^
We traded our first round draft pick to Freo, Freo will benefit handsomely. Our second rounder is tied to Hawthorn. We only benefit from being outside the 8 if Hawthorn are below us on the ladder.

[Magpie Russ]

So say we end up outside the finals.... all is not lost.
We benefit from being in a better position in the draft don't we?

“We'll all be rooned,” said Hanrahan, In accents most forlorn.

[BazBoy]

Do we stack our side with every experienced senior players
OR
Do we cap a few kids

[Piesnchess]

JDG done for the year

Sorry folks, but now JDG is gone, season, even if we somehow make the Finals, we cannot possibly win the Flag without him, he's simply irreplaceable.
Put it this way, in vital matches, big Finals, he always gets us those vital goals, like his magnificent goal,in the GF, when Charlie Cameron put Lions 4 points up, last qtr, JDG kicked a magnificent goal, within one minute, to get us back the lead, then Sidey aced the flag with his long bomb.
Jordon is our Bontempelli, our Cripps, our Merrett, he is indispensable, we simply cant replace him. And we cannot make the GF without his presence, let alone win it. Get him cherry ripe for 2025 season, Operations etc, that is the best we can hope for now.

[piedys]

Ah well, maybe we can get two games against North in 2025, just like Geebung this year, who effectively make the eight by default

[piedys]

Other than the pox dux and their putrid maggot umpires gifting them another close one against us on their shithole, the last few weeks have us somewhat buoyant again.
Today's upset has kept the pulse alive for another week.
Must win next friday, then on life-support pending other results...

[Big T]

Ah well, maybe we can get two games against North in 2025, just like Geebung this year, who effectively make the eight by default

Dyso my man, we both know the pies will get north twice once they are top 4 and full of talent, and not before - guaranteeing full coffers for all we support.

[BazBoy]

The final stanza. To leap into the eight

Forgetting Bummers and Scum we have to replace Dawks who are 48 with 108 %
Us 48 with 101%

Some scenarios. Hawks win we lose we r done
Hawks lose we win We r in
Both win and we flog big time Dees & they scrape in. Percentage advantage

[Piethagoras' Theorem]

Other than the pox dux and their putrid maggot umpires gifting them another close one against us on their shithole, the last few weeks have us somewhat buoyant again.
Today's upset has kept the pulse alive for another week.
Must win next friday, then on life-support pending other results...

I came to terms with the fact that we wouldn't make the finals since the dawks loss. That view was solidified once De Goey was ruled out for the year. Doesn't mean I haven't enjoyed the ride since, and would be satisfied to finish off the year with a big win over the toffs! I'd be absolutely stunned if we got through