Finals qualification

[piedys]

The plot thickens...

[Jezza]

^ Can still reach 56 points

9 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses (40 points)

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (A) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)
R13 - Melbourne (H) = WON (32 points)
R14 - North Melbourne (A) = WON (36 points)
R16 - Gold Coast (A) = LOSS (36 points)
R17 - Essendon (H) = LOSS (36 points)
R18 - Geelong (H) = LOSS (36 points)
R19 - Hawthorn (A) = LOSS (36 points)
R20 - Richmond (H) = WON (40 points)

R21 - Carlton (H)
R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

[David]

Fair chance Bulldogs and Hawks both lose tomorrow too and leave us just two points out of the eight tomorrow night.

These results were actually pretty disastrous for us – my ladder predictor was counting on us finishing above both of these teams and expecting both to lose yesterday, so this means we now need 52 points at absolute minimum, and even that may not be enough given our percentage is so far behind both teams (the Hawks now have a decent percentage advantage on us and have games against Richmond and North to finish up, which means we probably won't catch them even if we do get on a winning streak and they drop their other two games).

At this stage, we need two teams in the top 9 to drop out in order to make it. Despite already being on 12 wins, Port Adelaide are probably the most vulnerable of those – looking at their draw, they could easily go 0–4 from their last four games, and even if they win one of those their percentage might be able to be reeled in (there's currently around a 100-point for/against differential between us and them). It's hard to find a second team that we can overtake, though; our best hope would probably be the Bulldogs losing three of their last four, and that's not looking likely given their form and draw.

So despite what I've been saying about this all year, it looks like McRae was right all along and we actually do need 56 points to make it now – which means we can't afford to lose any of our last four games.

[Jezza]

56 points still in reach.

10 wins, 2 draws, 8 losses (44 points)

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (A) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)
R13 - Melbourne (H) = WON (32 points)
R14 - North Melbourne (A) = WON (36 points)
R16 - Gold Coast (A) = LOSS (36 points)
R17 - Essendon (H) = LOSS (36 points)
R18 - Geelong (H) = LOSS (36 points)
R19 - Hawthorn (A) = LOSS (36 points)
R20 - Richmond (H) = WON (40 points)
R21 - Carlton (H) = WON (44 points)

R22 - Sydney (A)
R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

[piedys]

So despite what I've been saying about this all year, it looks like McRae was right all along and we actually do need 56 points to make it now – which means we can't afford to lose any of our last four games.

Whatever happen, happens. We can only control one game per week...
Keep winning, and see what unfolds; tick.

[1eyedpie]

According to my ladder predictor we need to win all remaining games and Carlscum to beat Whorethorn for us to land in 8th spot to probably play Carlton in an elimination final.

Side note is there a glitch in the new bb as posts seemed to be getting deleted!

[RudeBoy]

I never dreamed that 14 wins (56 points) would not ensure a finals berth, but given our poor percentage, it's a possibility that even winning our remaining 3 games will not get us over the line. Still, all we can do is keep on winning and hope that other results fall our way.

[piedys]

Still, all we can do is keep on winning and hope that other results fall our way.

Hope and expectation is what we have over summer and pre-season.

Prayer is what we have now resorted to....

[Jezza]

56 points now out of reach. That effectively kills our finals hopes now.

10 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses (44 points)

OR - GWS (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R1 - Sydney (H) = LOSS (0 points)
R2 - St Kilda (A) = LOSS (0 points)
R3 - Brisbane Lions (A) = WON (4 points)
R4 - Hawthorn (N) = WON (8 points)
R6 - Port Adelaide (H) = WON (12 points)
R7 - Essendon (A) = DRAW (14 points)
R8 - Carlton (A) = WON (18 points)
R9 - West Coast (H) = WON (22 points)
R10 - Adelaide (H) = WON (26 points)
R11 - Fremantle (A) = DRAW (28 points)
R12 - Western Bulldogs (H) = LOSS (28 points)
R13 - Melbourne (H) = WON (32 points)
R14 - North Melbourne (A) = WON (36 points)
R16 - Gold Coast (A) = LOSS (36 points)
R17 - Essendon (H) = LOSS (36 points)
R18 - Geelong (H) = LOSS (36 points)
R19 - Hawthorn (A) = LOSS (36 points)
R20 - Richmond (H) = WON (40 points)
R21 - Carlton (H) = WON (44 points)
R22 - Sydney (A) = LOSS (44 points)

R23 - Brisbane Lions (H)
R24 - Melbourne (A)

[piedys]

Okay, so by the end of round 24: let's add say the 2 points we got robbed against Freo by bald headed dog Nicholls, and 4 points from tonight's maggot-festa, for 6 in total, then deduct 2 from Freo, and see where we should have finished on the ladder....

[David]

It’s functionally all over now, but for those morbidly curious in mathematical chances, here are the four conditions we’d need to be met from here to make finals:

• We win against Brisbane and Melbourne
• Essendon lose two of their last three against Gold Coast, Sydney and Brisbane
• Hawthorn lose against Carlton and also against one of Richmond or North OR Carlton lose their last three against Hawthorn, West Coast and St Kilda
• Fremantle lose last three against Geelong, GWS and Port Adelaide OR Geelong lose last three against Fremantle, St Kilda and West Coast (and, in the latter scenario, we make up our roughly 150-point For/Against difference with the Cats, so those losses and our two wins would have to be by an average of thirty points)
• Alternatively, we can afford to skip one of the above three scenarios if the Bulldogs lose their last three against Adelaide, North and Giants.

In short, we would need to win both, Essendon to lose the two games they’re expected to lose and then two of the other teams above us to fall over.

Whatever happens, we will still be mathematically alive at the end of this round; it’ll be specifically the results of the Carlton/Hawthorn and Fremantle/Geelong games that will determine which (narrow) path above is open to us. (Would be better for us if Geelong and Carlton win.)

Edit: have updated following the Lions/Giants result.

[SLORT]

• We win against Brisbane and Melbourne
• Essendon lose two of their last three against Gold Coast, Sydney and Brisbane - CHECK!
• Hawthorn lose against Carlton and also against one of Richmond or North OR Carlton lose their last three against Hawthorn, West Coast and St Kilda - waiting on result
• Fremantle lose last three against Geelong, GWS and Port Adelaide - Looks possible!
• Alternatively, we can afford to skip one of the above three scenarios if the Bulldogs lose their last three against Adelaide, North and Giants. - waiting on result

*Note ~ bold text are my comments, not original posters.
Been a weird year, anything's possible! Not that I'd put any money on it, but it'd be funny if things did land this way. Though at this point we're all probably just barracking for Caaarlton and Essendumb not to make it.

Just finished watching the last 2 mins of Bombers vs Suns...Scott's baby tears, priceless.

[David]

Yep, two results went our way with the Suns and Cats winning, and Adelaide can help a little by beating the Bulldogs tomorrow.

I think we can safely barrack for Hawthorn against Carlton, if so inclined; even though it’s harder to imagine the Blues losing both their last two games than Hawthorn losing one, the Hawks are such a lock to beat Richmond and North that it’s really a long shot for us to overtake whoever loses out of those two. But if we can’t make it, at least it’d be nice to see Carlton miss too…

[Piesnchess]

I have accepted the fact we cant make the Finals, but by God, lets cause some mayhem and play like maniacs in last two matches, now the shackles are off,we can play with more freedom, flair, take risks, have FUN, and hit the Lions and Deeees with every thing we have, stir the bastards right up, and finish on a high this season.

[Piesnchess]

NOW "they" reckon, cos of big upsets yesterday, and IF the Bluescum beat the Dawks, we are back in the hunt for 8th spot, so "they" say, I dunno. ?? Like, WTF ??