The List (2024 player movements / list updates / contract discussions)

[warburton lad]

Good morning Mr Black and White Lion and thank you for the excellent post.
My two bobs worth:
* Steene is a keeper- will improve with full pre-season and has the size to be a key position forward or back
* Begg has been on the list a long time and absolutely needs to be trialled as a centre half back
* Eyre seems to spend more time in the medical rehab than on the track but has some tools of the trade- especially his field kicking.
* Ash Johnson has immense talent, but appears lazy- is contracted for 2025 but will need to put in a huge pre-season to break back into the team.
* Reef McInnes is a midfielder- period. playing him as a forward has stalled his development- stick him on a wing and let the lad run. His pre season must be enormous to solidify a senior career.
* Demattea should be played in the senior team from Round One 2025- he can run and has good foot skills- will need to add some bulk in the gym, but we need 'fresh legs' in our AFL team
* Macrae- definitely needs to play in the centre next year- play him continually and let the boy blossom- must be prioritised over others (Sullivan, Bytel, et al)
* Jiath- again, he needs to bulk up but would add spark and run to our best 23
* Allan- is an inside mid with elite pace- must add some size but is an elite handball in traffic and will be a keeper.
*Smit- this guy is the complete package- would have gone Top 15 if still in the draft pool for November. His second-efforts are magnificent for a 201cm guy. He has the ruck skills to upgrade our clearance work from stoppage, is a thumping kick and a competitive beast. He is a steal in my book.
* Parker- totally agree with Mr Black and White Lion- he would appear to be the pick of the VFL bunch- is 183cms, quick and has the skills required at AFL level- is an obvious and immediate upgrade on John Noble
* Markov- is recontracted and must really get back to his basics of manic defending and running non-stop. We need his type of energy on the field in 2025. Not a star, but his leg speed is elite and a point of difference.
*Ryan- like Markov is contracted and has great leg speed. Needs a monster pre-season to push his claims.
* Bytel- is raw (less than 30 games) and is capable of getting the ball a lot, but needs to spend the next six months improving disposal (yes- it can be done)
* Sullivan- has every attribute needed to succeed at AFL level but is a bit one-paced. If he improves leg speed, he can make it.
* Richards is an opportunist, but needs to bulk up. If we ever used the term again, he would make an interesting choice as second rover- he is quick and has great foot skills on either side of his body.

In terms of the senior coaching panel- please go back to the 2023 set up- it wasn't broken and if Wright hadn't taken a sabbatical, it would not have changed.

I defy anyone to have done a better job with the VFL list than Josh Fraser did in 2024. Our enormous injury list at AFL level decimated the depth (especially talls- Mihocek, Cox, Steene, Begg, McStay...).
Let's see how Fraser goes in 2025 with a reasonable run with injury.

In terms of moving forward, I would add Sam Glover to our list and would seriously reconsider redrafting Trey Ruscoe- his delisting was, in my view, a mistake.

In terms of 2025, perhaps we retain all of the veterans for one last throw at the stumps? With a sprinkling of youth being introduced into the 23, we may well have one more flag in the list before the greats ride off into the sunset...

Floreat Pica.

[The Black and White Lion]

^
Yeah good points I missed Allen. 3 highlights for the year the 80m rolling goal, the centre clearance against Casey clear to advantage from Smit a bounce and beautiful pass to Johnson on the lead, and of course he got a game in Perth in front of his family and friends. I want him to succeed but I don’t know if he will.

Fraser was hamstrung by talls and second use of the ball no doubt but when we got it, not enough work, not enough run and poor disposals abounded. Even with our VFL plodders we could have manufactured one on one lead up play to circumvent the oppo’s advantage and give our plodders a chance to push the ball to a kick inside 50 but we persisted with long kicks and plays down the wing to congestion. I just think the VFL game plan trying to replicate zones and AFL patterns is too complicated when you’re short on players. Our plan could have been a lot simpler and relied on more than Glover as the sole KPD at FB for many games.

As VFL coach I reckon Fraser had a tough gig pitching afl and vfl players together and trying to follow the lead of the AFL coaches but at some point you have to coach the team for what they are and the players available. To me that’s up to the coach and would like to see Josh be brave and work within the team’s limitations instead of Fly’s ambitions.

The other problem with our list you can’t paper over is that junior stars create an unfair example and by prioritising mature bodies and proven veterans you limit the opportunities and development of young players and this come down to coaching preference. All of McInnes, Macrae, Ryan, Allen are behind their contemporaries in AFL games played with Naicos, McCreery and IQ established and developing at AFL level. Compared to other teams they’re behind the Sheezels, Reid’s, Cadmans, Howes, Ginbeys, Ashcrofts, Powells, Thomas, Morris, Roberts Draper’s, Wilson’s drafted well after them. Even Geelong is developing Humphries in that list but we elected to play Jiath only because of injuries.

The older players get multiple chances to play games below par even before even a hint of being dropped. Macrae has been the first player dropped every time now either he’s not good enough and they need to try something different or they give him a longer go. Noble butchers the ball frequently but is retained without being asked to go and work on his disposal. Schultz hasn’t been near it in many games but has not been sent to the best or the VFL to prove his worth. Sullivan and Long and Bytel are spending time in the AFL despite Macrae’s consistent efforts at VFL and seemingly greater goal assists.

We have a glaring deficiency on one wing in the AFL team yet we don’t push Macrae, McInnes Allen Ryan to this role. Demattia has played wing of late but more often than
Not an VFl plodder has plodded on our VFL wings. The only role Macrae seems to be picked for at AFL seems to be the one Naicos is filling for high possessions but low efficiency ~50% again v swans. The coaches don’t see Macrae next to Naicos as he’s not big and strong enough to protect Naicos, which is why they selected Long.

There is no doubt the coaches method for mature bodies worked in 2023 but with age and injury it clearly didn’t work this year but the method of play didn’t really change when it counted, and nor did the player / role selection.

As much as our list needs improvement through opportunity, our list management in season needs improvement to improve the value of the list. Otherwise end of season list management decisions will continue to penalise the youth.

We are at a pivotal point at the end of the 2024 season. An abundance of rookies, an abundance of veterans, players in contract who probably shouldn’t go on at our club, and a swathe of underdeveloped youth.
The problem lies in the middle of that donut description they’re because if we continue to eat away at the outside of the donut, all we’re going to be left with is the hole.

[SLORT]

Joe Richards offered 1yr contract for 2025 ~

https://www.afl.com.au/news/1195697/ins ... o-keep-mid

[npalm]

^^ that's a bit surprising. I would have thought that Richards has shown enough this year to be offered 2-3 years.

[Pies4shaw]

^ He's only back up for Schultz and Hill, isn't he? If he develops further next year, a longer contract probably awaits.

[Durka]

Hasn't he been offered a longer contract - by Port?
If that talk is true, he's probably gone.

[Culprit]

Those attacking Josh Fraser are clueless about being a Reserves coach. As a reserves coach your expected to develop players to slot into the Seniors. Winning in the magoos is a bonus. Being a Reserves coach you’re on a hiding to nothing as in many cases your directed who to play who in certain positions and game time etc. I’ve never been a Josh fan and in saying that if you’ve coached the Reserves you’d understand more.

[Dark Beanie]

Agree Culprit.

Anyone coming in to the AFL needs to know the system and be able to slot in, the next man up philosophy.

Plus there is giving potential draftees (23rd man) a chance to play and have a look at how they go like Warburton, Luke Q.

There are a few issues which have impacted the performance of the VFL, the main one being team consistency. Having 4-5 changes each week doesn't help with developing game plans etc.

[Jen2310]

Unless I'm blind, that article doesn't say how many years we offered.

[Durka]

Looks like we’re losing Richards.
Sub last week and basically not used then dropped this week.
Pity as out of this year’s debutants he’s the best.

[Pies2016]

Whether right or wrong, the likely retention of most ( if not all ) our vets, suggests to me, we are going to trade out a couple of our fringe players.
I have no doubt the club will aim to be busy in the off season and the only way we can really achieve that, is to either trade out our 2025 first rounder OR trade out 2 /3 fringe players OR more likely, involve both.
Just as an EXAMPLE ONLY, if the club were to trade out McInnes, MacRae and Richards ( or any combination of the three ) they would likely receive something around an early 3rd rounder ( ? ) for each player. At this point the club would then have its original second rounder and a total of FIVE third rounders ( if all three are traded)
From there, the club may then trade out its 2025 first rounder ( in the knowledge that McGuane is tucked away anyway ) Those combined actions alone would then set the club up with a very late first rounder ( as exchange for the 2025 first rounder ) an original mid range second rounder and up to five ( early ) third rounders. Those multiple third rounders could be bundled up to either move us closer to the business end of the draft pool OR allow us to trade in a quality player OR even both to an extent.
I’m not saying the above is the way to go but it should serve as a reminder if how a bit of creativity could very quickly change the clubs 2024 trade and draft options. The key to working up the draft order would be to do any fringe player trades early, so as to still leave the club with time to then go to market with all those newly acquired draft picks.
Like it or not, looks like we’re holding onto the vets, so something else will have to give. Watch this space.

[SLORT]

Expected team (if all veterans remain) as of the start of 2025 season:

Full Backs: I.Quaynor 25 B.Frampton 28 B.Maynard 28
Half Backs: J.Howe 34 D.Moore 29 S.Pendlebury 37
Centre: J.Daicos 26 J.De Goey 29 P.Lipinski 26
Half F’wards: B.McCreery 23 B.Mihocek 32 L.Schultz 27
Full F’wards: B.Hill 25 D.McStay 29 J.Elliot 32

Followers: D.Cameron 29 T.Mitchell 32 N.Daicos 22

Interchange: S.Sidebottom 34 W.HElliot 31 J.Crisp 31
M.Cox 34 O.Markov 29

Frampton may be pushed out (by Keane), and Markov for Noble (or other).

Average age = 29 years old. Oldest team to win a premiership was Geelong in 2022, average age of 28.
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/09/25/ ... l-history/

[The Black and White Lion]

Just as an EXAMPLE ONLY, if the club were to trade out McInnes, MacRae and Richards… Watch this space.

Yep good post and interesting theory.

Does that mix of points work with the new point system if Thomas is taken first round.

Does it go out the window if one of the other NGAs comes up trumps next year also?

I’d throw Noble into the trade mix also particularly if it helps nab another pick and points or another fringe player.

[Pies2016]

Just as an EXAMPLE ONLY, if the club were to trade out McInnes, MacRae and Richards… Watch this space.

Yep good post and interesting theory.

Does that mix of points work with the new point system if Thomas is taken first round.

Does it go out the window if one of the other NGAs comes up trumps next year also?

I’d throw Noble into the trade mix also particularly if it helps nab another pick and points or another fringe player.

Cheers. I think some on here had convinced themselves this upcoming trade period and draft is all doom and gloom but the example I highlighted is to show there are so many ways to skin a cat. Now obviously there is no such thing as a free lunch, so for every trade action, there’s a reaction. At least the club is in a position to be active as long as it’s prepared to be creative along the way.
To answer your questions, the McGuane bid whenever it comes in 2025 will sort itself out on the night. Yes, it will be the first year of rules designed to tighten F / S selections but it won’t be a problem to work through, regardless of the where the bid falls. Part of that reasoning, is that 2025 will also be the first year of trading future picks two years in advance, so the mechanisms available to bring in DVI points will never be greater, regardless of a new diluted system. The AFL have also talked about ( but yet to be confirmed ) easing the limitations that have previously come with trading futures, That would only make the flexibility even easier.

You raise a fair point about the possibility of a second NGA or F /S being added into the mix ( maybe McCarthy ) and that’s where the DVI mathematics starts to work against you ( as admitted by the AFL themselves ) If Collingwood wished to secure a second F / S or NGA prospect on the night, then once again we may have to get a little creative. This shouldn’t be a big issue, so long as the club correctly identifies where these bids are likely to come. ( Disclaimer - finding the points for two first rounds bids could potentially prove a little problematic though )

Yes, John Noble is another option as a possible trade, as are others again. What we should all understand is that there is a tangible return to be had by accumulating mid range picks and then either bundling them up or trading them out to improve your position during the trade period. As it currently stands ( and this is the last year as previously discussed ) EARLY third round picks are currently worth around 400 + points each, give or take, depending on exactly where they fall. By trading out three fringe players, we would automatically have added around 1200 points to our trade hand ( and that’s only what we added and still not including our original two 3rd round picks ) Then if you were to add those original two third rounders into the mix, you are looking at a hand of five third rounders ONLY that total around 2,000 draft points ( which equals a decent first round pick in value )
Now, don’t get excited just yet. Accumulating those points doesnt mean we go to draft night with a top ten pick. It just doesn’t work that way ( that’s another conversation ) but what it does mean is that we have something other clubs will want to satisfy their F /S and NGA needs. As we all know, having something that others want, has always been the beginning to any mutual trade conversation.

[RudeBoy]

Thanks for your explanation and analysis P2016. Much appreciated.

All will be revealed in due course, and then after 3-4 yrs I guess we'll be able to judge the worth of the club's trading/drafting strategy. As it stands now, however, I'll be disappointed IF it results in us losing 'Smokin' Joe Richards, as he has clearly been the stand out new player for us this year, with silky skills and elite decision-making.