Russian invasion of Ukraine

[think positive]

no idea, but gees a crystal ball to see where it ends would be handy.

what effect will Komala have?

[Culprit]

Russia is now moving troops to stop the incursion into Russian territory. Putin thumps the desk over and over again, I expect another General to accidentally fall out of a window. More and more long-range weapons are being handed to Ukraine and now they are going deeper into Russia. Two major bridges hit and interrupted the Russian supply chain. The current incursion has Russia now on the back foot. Ukraine's F16s also make it harder for Russia to launch fly-in attack missions. There's a lot of misinformation out there about who is killing who and blowing up what but the facts are the Ukrainians are one tough opponent and they learn and adapt pretty quickly. Drones are now seen as a major weapon across the globe. I have seen this firsthand in the ADF and the money that has been allocated to our Drone technology. Putin cannot be allowed to take Ukraine.

[Durka]

But what do others make of the fact that the Ukrainian army, directed and armed by NATO, is now invading Russian territory...in Kursk.

Ukraine don't intend to invade and conquer Russia. So why have they invaded Russian territory? It's easy enough to think of a few valid reasons.

1. Because they can.

2. To draw Russian resources away from where they have encroached on Ukrainian territory, in anticipation of a Ukrainian push there.

3. To use as a bargaining chip in any settlement negotiations with Russia. Before the Ukrainians took Russian land, they had nothing to give away in a settlement, now they do. You give us our land back and we will give you yours back.

4. It gives Putin a potential "out" if he can sell a settlement to Russians on the basis that he heroically removed the invaders from Russia.

5. To foster discontent in Russia, as what was seen as a few day "special military operation" has led to their homeland being invaded; and

6. The really important one. To get up Putin's nose.

[stui magpie]

^

Probably all of the above. What happens next will be both critical and interesting.

You'd think neither side has enough troops to fight on 2 different fronts, so the Russians will either withdraw troops from Ukraine to defend Russian soil or think, "we'll get that land back later" and push even harder against presumably a weakened Ukraine defence. But as Culprit said, removing troops doesn't necessarily mean their defence is weakened if they have Drones and air support.

Either way, it looks like it's all coming to a head. You'd hope Putin isn't insane enough to bring Nukes into play or, if he is, there's someone sensible enough to "remove" him. Some poison or radioactive material in his Vodka or a bullet in the back, Kremlin media releases the news that he has died of natural causes.

[David]

I think escalation is always probably a bad idea, and this is a military operation that doesn't seem to have much of an end goal other than to flip the script a bit – obviously nobody thinks Ukraine can take and hold onto Russian territory in the long-term, though having Western weapons at their disposal obviously makes a difference.

A lot of people miss the similarities because of the way people with various ideological leanings tend to line up on Russia–Ukraine and Israel–Palestine, but to me this Kursk operation carries strong echoes of the October 7 attack in Israel (perhaps without the wanton slaughter of civilians). In both cases, the weaker of two forces in conflict has done something nobody thought possible and, at least briefly, made an incursion into the bigger power's territory, perhaps with the aim of exercising some leverage in an otherwise hopeless situation. In both cases, it seems in practice more like a smash-and-grab exercise than anything that can lead to functional outcomes. I guess I just hope that Russia's response is less brutal than Israel's was (and continues to be).

[Durka]

Less brutal?
In the short term, what more can Russia do, that Ukraine cannot do?
Previously Ukraine had to fight in close, not any more. They have longer range capabilities now.
We all know the story of Putin and the rat. Now, Ukraine is the rat.

[Culprit]

Russia's plan to make the war boring for the Western Allies just took a hit. In contrast, the West continues to drag its feet on supplying Ukraine with even more serious weapons and allowing deeper attacks on Russia. While the slow approach continues, the conflict will drag out. Russia now has to defend its territory from Ukrainian attacks on its infrastructure. A bridge here and there, airfields, and oil supplies all have an impact. Ukraine would be happy to discuss peace yet Putin can't go down this path as he can't have the great power of Russia lose another conflict.

An interesting fact about Australia's purchase of HIMARS. The amount of HIMARS we have planned to purchase to defend ourselves as a deterrent, Ukraine used in 24 hours.

[Magpietothemax]

Ukraine would be happy to discuss peace yet Putin can't go down this path as he can't have the great power of Russia lose another conflict.

Totally wrong. Ukraine is the attack dog of Germany and the US. Both the US and German governments have made clear that they are in it for "whatever it takes" to secure a victory for Ukraine, and will continue to supply lethal weaponry to the Ukrainian government, whatever the threat of nuclear war.

Zelensky is a captive of neo=fascists in his own government, who might slice his throat if he dared to consider any peace with Putin.

No end in sight to this conflict because:

a) US/NATO seek the destabilisation and overthrow of Putin, and the reduction of Russia to a kaleidoscope of powerless mini-states all dominated by US/German finance capital
b) Zelensky owes his survival to his willingness to act as a US/NATO proxy
c) If Zelensky were to deviate from his current role (supplying US and Germany with cannon fodder for their war against Russia), he will be removed by extreme right wing/nationalist forces within his own government.

[Magpietothemax]

The US and UK are about to greenlight the use of NATO missiles by Ukraine to start bombarding Moscow and other Russian cities.

According to Russian military doctrine, the use of its nuclear weapons is legitimate if the territorial integrity of Russia is threatened.

Theoretically, the Ukrainian incursion into Russia could have triggered a nuclear response.

Now, , the UK and the US are about to cross the next red line, assuming that once again the Putin regime will show restraint and not reply with a nuclear response.

Putin has already warned recently: “If this decision is made, it will mean nothing less than the direct participation of NATO countries, the US and European countries, in the conflict in Ukraine.”

Militarily, the Ukrainian military is collapsing and facing a debacle. It looks like Russia is on the verge of a breakthrough in Eastern Ukraine. The US and NATO's proxy Ukrainian forces are facing a debacle, and the geostrategic aims of US/NATO imperialism (to destabilise Russia, incite divisions within its ruling elite, and overthrow the Putin government) cannot be maintained without the direct intervention of the US and NATO.

The Biden administration is claiming that Putin is bluffing and would not answer NATO's direct entry into the war with nuclear weapons. How does Biden know? What if he's wrong?

[stui magpie]

^

Biden wouldn't have a fkn clue, but he would have the best advisors they have. Whether they're correct or not is a different matter. Putin is a loose unit and could launch Nukes if he thinks his world is about to turn to shit, which would mean some would come back his way. Not a pleasant thought.

[Magpietothemax]

^and @stui magpie this is where you are wrong.
Putin is no more of a "loose unit" than Biden. Putin also has the "best advisors Russia has".

Putin is running out of wriggle room. There are extreme nationalists in the Russian ruling elite who are demanding that he draw a line in the sand in response to the continuing reckless provocations of the US/NATO.

A high level adviser to Putin, in a widely read interview, has stated that nuclear weapons were created to defend Russia, and the government must be willing to use them.

A direct confrontation between US/NATO and Russia is about to occur.

Unless it is stopped, it threatens to destroy the entire planet.

[stui magpie]

A nuclear conflict between the US and Russia won't even go close to destroying the planet.

It would likely cause a few $billion damage to the west coast of the US and a similar amount of $ improvements in russia. Several million people would die from radiation poisoning, Europe would be fvcked up, there's room to argue that none of this is a bad thing in the long term view.

[Magpietothemax]

@stui magpie I hope that this is sarcastic and not a serious response???

[stui magpie]

Little bit of both TBH.