Biden presidency and 2024 election campaign

[Skids]

Trump $1.55

Harris $2.38

He's going to get another term going by the punters and predictors.

[What'sinaname]

Precisely. The American electoral system is far worse off for not having it, because it means there's no real choice beyond the two-party system – instead, it's Republicans vs Democrats until hell freezes over. No wonder so many of them don't even bother to turn up to vote on election day.

So a party that gets 10% of the votes can have the same influence as one who gets 45% of the votes...because pReFeREnCes

[What'sinaname]

You can't make this shit up

The leader of the side who claim that the other side winning is the end of democracy, just said "we gotta lock him up" about the leader of the other side - 14 days out of an election.

Unbelievable

[David]

So a party that gets 10% of the votes can have the same influence as one who gets 45% of the votes...because pReFeREnCes

I don't know of any system where that's the case – it's certainly not ours.

[lazzadesilva]

Trump $1.55

Harris $2.38

He's going to get another term going by the punters and predictors.

Your predictions have always been right. Looks like it’s all just about done and dusted that Trump will be the Prez again.!Interesting times ahead.

[stui magpie]

Bookmakers react to how many people bet on something. If a lot of people are betting on Trump, they lower the odds. As such, it's a reflection on the people who bet, not necessarily on the people who vote.

It's an indication only. More concerning would be the trend of all the early votes coming in, which apparently favour Trump.

Why he retains his popularity has got me fvcked. He seems to have the demographic he originally targeted locked in, hard. When he first ran for POTUS, I thought it was a lark and supported him and when he was elected, hoped he might actually make a worthwhile change. I couldn't have been more wrong.

I guess you never underestimate self interest.

[David]

Betting odds might sometimes be semi-useful predictors because people don’t tend to want to throw their money away and will take what looks like a good deal if they can get it. But I think these are particularly unreliable given how delusional Trump’s supporter base is – keep in mind that many of these people genuinely believe that everything in the mainstream press is fake but that websites with erectile dysfunction ads and AI-generated images are giving them the real truth. They think an election was stolen because Trump said so, even though he comprehensively failed to demonstrate it in court; quite a few believe that Democratic Party politicians have secret child-trafficking tunnels, etc. Far from all Trump-backing gamblers are Trump supporters, of course, but I suspect there are enough to be skewing the data.

For my part, I really have no idea who’ll win and wouldn’t be overly surprised if it’s Trump. The polls seem to suggest he’s a better than 50/50 chance, but perhaps not by much. Otherwise, I’ve long since abandoned faith in such things as common sense or common wisdom, because if they counted for anything he’d have no hope of winning – and evidently that’s not the case.

[David]

By the way, if you want to enjoy thirty minutes of pure madness, look no further:

[What'sinaname]

Betting odds might sometimes be semi-useful predictors because people don’t tend to want to throw their money away and will take what looks like a good deal if they can get it. But I think these are particularly unreliable given how delusional Trump’s supporter base is – keep in mind that many of these people genuinely believe that everything in the mainstream press is fake but that websites with erectile dysfunction ads and AI-generated images are giving them the real truth. They think an election was stolen because Trump said so, even though he comprehensively failed to demonstrate it in court; quite a few believe that Democratic Party politicians have secret child-trafficking tunnels, etc. Far from all Trump-backing gamblers are Trump supporters, of course, but I suspect there are enough to be skewing the data.

For my part, I really have no idea who’ll win and wouldn’t be overly surprised if it’s Trump. The polls seem to suggest he’s a better than 50/50 chance, but perhaps not by much. Otherwise, I’ve long since abandoned faith in such things as common sense or common wisdom, because if they counted for anything he’d have no hope of winning – and evidently that’s not the case.

Polling data tends to be skewed to Democrats. Conservatives are more likely to not want to disclose who they vote for in any poll. So a close race is likely a 2-4 point win to Trump.

But as you said, there is strong delusion across the Harris camp who get their news from TikToks who are resorted to trying to convince people Trump is Hilter.

[Jezza]

Latest polls have the national vote as a tie more or less, with Trump being slightly ahead in the battleground states.

Always expect the unexpected with US elections, but I think the key battleground states to focus on are Pennsylvania (19), Georgia (16), North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6).

You need 270 electoral college votes to be declared the winner. Based off the last election, Harris will start with 303 electoral college votes, and Trump at 235.

[David]

Thanks Jezza – of those seven, only North Carolina went to Trump last time. So it looks like he has to win three more of those states (or potentially up to four including Nevada) this time around to make up the 35 electoral college votes he needs.

[Brodies Dad]

Gee that Neonazi Rally at MSG was a real shit show.

They don’t even try to hide their fascism anymore.

Tipping a Harris victory by a fair margin.

[What'sinaname]

Gee that Neonazi Rally at MSG was a real shit show.

They don’t even try to hide their fascism anymore.

Tipping a Harris victory by a fair margin.

Bingo!!!

You're a good little democrat. You weaved in both buzz words (Nazi and Fascism).

Where's the joy from a month ago gone? You dems have gone from smiles and happiness to shouting and anger.

[Pies4shaw]

^ One doesn’t have to favour anyone else running for office - or otherwise care about the outcome of their election - to identify Trump as anti-democratic filth.

[lazzadesilva]

Why do right wingers tend to be anti democratic in a democratic country like the USA? Doesn’t make any sense