Biden presidency and 2024 election campaign

[Jezza]

Trump wins Alaska (3)

Harris 226-295 Trump

[Pies4shaw]

Looking at the CNN exit poll, the biggest issues of concern for Harris voters were democracy and abortion, which just seemed like ineffective issues to campaign on when the economy was consistently cited as the number one concern for voters. Trump performed well with voters concerned about the economy, illegal immigration and foreign policy.

Here's a useful, if provisional, review published by 538 yesterday: https://abcnews.go.com/538/donald-trump ... =115556511

It's fairly consistent with your observation.

This comment, under the "inflation" discussion particularly attracted my interest:

It's possible that inflation contributed to the growing divide between high-income voters and low-income voters. According to the exit poll, Democrats increased their vote share by 9 points among voters living in households that make more than $100,000 dollars a year. Among households making less, which account for about 60 percent of voters, Republicans gained 12 points on margin.

That may or may not explain the immediate reasons why Trump won on Tuesday - but it certainly points to one underlying problem in US politics that has been developing over many years: the party of the alleged "left" there can't maintain support from the 60% of voters at the bottom end of the economy. Pointing to all the things self-evidently unacceptable about Trump is a form of sport we can indulge in here, without consequence - but, over there, you actually need to present an alternative plan, howsoever embryonic. And campaigning on a bundle of "rights" issues, the criminal misconduct of the other candidate and the defence of democracy against neo-fascism, no matter how significant any of those issues may be, is not going to attract much support when (irrespective of "fault") the economy has tanked on your watch.

[stui magpie]

^
According to many different articles I read in the lead up and after, around 70% of Americans said, when surveyed in lots of different surveys, that the US was "on the wrong track". They weren't happy with the direction of the country.

Whether or not that's Bidens fault, he copped the blame for it and Harris was linked by association.

Interestingly the economy has actually gone well under Biden, but trying to explain that to people who are facing increasing cost of living pressure isn't easy.

The 2 issues that clearly went in Trump's favour were Immigration and the Economy, 2 things that were viewed to have failed under Biden/Harris watch.

On a side note, I decided to finally check out X (previously Twitter). Oh dear. It's a shit show of wailing and gloating. Piers Morgan actually tweeted that Trump should now declare he identifies as female and become the first female POTUS just to shove one up the Woke brigade.

[What'sinaname]

Let's now watch Joe pardon Hunter on his way out of the door.

[nomadjack]

Actually don't disagree with a number of the points you raise here, but this one fascinates me. A serious question - what do you understand 'equity' to mean?

It's Harris' definition. She defines equality is treating everyone equally - giving them the same. Equity is recognising people start at different places, so you give more to the more disadvantaged so every end up in an equitable, i.e. the same place.

^^Thanks for that. I haven't followed the campaign (or US politics) that closely since Biden. I just had a look at some mash-ups Fox put together of how she has used the terms equity/equality over time - not surprised it tanked. That looks to me like co-opting a term to conflate two different (but related) concepts in an attempt to frame an issue in a more politically acceptable way. Equity for me is about justice or fairness - what we would understand as equality of opportunity or 'a fair go'. It does raise issues around how far government should legitimately go in evening up the playing field (the whole 'affirmative action debate') but isn't necessarily incompatible with US values like individualism and aspiration. Linking it to equality of outcomes or 'ending up in the same place' sounds like political poison though - it wouldn't float here, much less in the US.^

[nomadjack]

My read on this is a little different and I think it's almost impossible to disentangle the economy from broader issues including dissatisfaction with democracy. When working class voters in rust-belt states say they are concerned about the economy it's not just in the sense of dollars in their back pocket - it's also about deeper cultural issues around globalisation, traditional ways of living and not being listened to by parties that have traditionally been their protectors. The different positions on protectionism and industry policy are a perfect example. These were traditionally Democrat staples. The left have abandoned these voters and they know it. I'm absolutely no fan of Trump but he's got a good political antenna and is a perfect fit for the times. Trump's attractive because he offers a clear 'up yours' to the mainstream plastic political elite who haven't given a shit about a large chunk of the electorate since the 1980s. Trump is a threat to democracy because he completely ignores and undervalues traditional democratic institutions and processes. It's laughable that Biden/Harris and friends have presented themselves as protectors of democracy though. They along with the now almost negligible leftovers of the traditional Republican party been manipulating these same institutions for 40 years.