Biden presidency and 2024 election campaign

[Jezza]

Arizona the only state still yet to be called.

83% counted = Harris 46.3% - 52.7% Trump


Popular vote
[*] Harris = 47.8% (70.3 million votes)
[*] Trump = 50.5% (74.2 million votes)

[Magpietothemax]

Election result is a political catastrophe, for which the Democrats bear the total political responsibility.

Thanks to the Democratic Party’s electoral collapse—the result of the party’s policies of genocide and war overseas, open indifference to the social crisis facing the working class at home and an obsessive promotion of the identity politics of the affluent middle class—Trump has taken the White House, the Republicans have regained control of the Senate and the GOP is highly likely to retain control of the House of Representatives.

Despite a cost of living crisis, intensified by the reduction of real wages that the Democrats and their allies in the trade union bureaucracies have enforced, the Democrats told the population that the economy was "prospering". It was prospering for Wall St, but millions of low to middle US households have been devastated by economic insecurity and impoverishment over the course of the Biden administration.

Harris refused to acknowledge this economic distress. Her policies offered nothing to the vast bulk of the population except a continuation of the same pro-corporate policies.

She enlisted Obama to go and berate the working class, and condemn male workers as "mysogynist" if they refused to vote for Harris. As you can imagine, this just disgusted working class men who are struggling at the moment to get food on the table for their families, and are doing overtime and taking up a second job to try to do so.

The issues of trans and gay rights, racial affirmation, are irrelevant to those fighting for their material survival.

Harris'' open support for genocide in Gaza cost her the youth vote. It also cost her quite clearly the vote in Michigan, where a large Arab population had warned the Democrats for months that if the genocide enabling policies of the Democrats were not changed, then they would not vote for the Democrat candidate.

So how did Trump win, given that it is clear that he proposes to impose the most right wing pro-capitalist policies ever seen in the US, and has openly declared his intention of creating a dictatorship?

It was simple. Trump exploited the social anger. He feigned sympathy for the millions of working people engulfed by an economic disaster. He at least acknowledged their social anger, while the Democrats did not.

You have only a choice between two. Either vote for the one whose policies have led you to economic despair, and who has demonstrated repeatedly her complete indifference to your situation, or vote for someone different who at least seems to give some kind of voice to your social anger.

Now, we see the disgusting spectacle of the Democrats totally surrendering to Trump, promising that they will collaborate with him fully in transferring power to him - a fascist. Harris only a week ago was calling Trump a fascist, then in her concession speech promised that "everything will be OK, we will get thorugh this". The Democrats are attempting to lull the working class to sleep, by downplaying or outright concealing the immense dangers.

But 72 00 000 people in the US who voted for Trump are not fascists. They will be shocked when Trump tries to implement the barbaric, right wing agenda of corporate deregulation, gutting of public education and health, that he plans.

The Democrats will not resist Trump''s deranged pro corporate program. But the working class will. No class allows itself to be physically and materially annihilated.

We are in for social conflict of the kind that we have not witnessed before.

[What'sinaname]

I shouldn't laugh but every time I read stuff harvested from WSWS, I always think of this:

GEORGE: Yeah. What are you doing with the Daily Worker?
ELAINE: Ned must have left it here.
GEORGE: Your boyfriend reads the Daily Worker? What is he? A communist?
ELAINE: HE reads everything, you know, Ned's very well read.
GEORGE: Maybe he's just "very well RED"?
ELAINE: Communist? Don't you think he probably would have told me?
GEORGE: Well, does he wear bland, drab, olive colored clothing?
ELAINE: Yes, . . . yes he does dress a little drab.
GEORGE: Huh, he's a communist. . . . .

[Pies4shaw]

Here is 538's provisional view on the accuracy of the 2024 polls. In short, polling error was under 3%, generally and as low as 2.2% in the swing States. That was historically good. Meanwhile, the polls continue to overestimate Democrat support but, after a lot of corrective work, by significantly less than at recent elections. In a statistical sense, that means that the polls have inherent "bias". That doesn't mean that they are "cooked up" to make the Democrats look good. They report results accurately but they are still, as 538 puts it, "having a hard time reaching the types of people who support Trump."

Be that as it may, even if the polls were able to obtain completely representative (ie, "unbiased") samples, the problem remains that individual polls always carry an inherent statistical error large enough that they can't reliably identify a likely winner in any reasonably close contest. Thus, although the polls were at their most accurate in a quarter of a century, they were still, in substance, useless at predicting the outcome (though accurate in identifying that it would be quite a close-run thing).

https://abcnews.go.com/538/2024-polls-a ... =115652118

Of course, polls are still very useful instruments for politicians in all sorts of ways - in particular, trends in polling that can be linked to particular events or issues can help to identify whether a particular event or issue affects electoral prospects positively or negatively. So, eg - and to put it at its crudest, you can use it to identify that you need to get a different candidate - what you can't do is work out from polling, in most cases, whether your candidate will win.

[Culprit]

It's going to be a fun four years. While he's not my cup of tea, I can see why many love him. Populism is an easy sell, and now he has to deliver. Is there a special charter flight to Australia with all those actors, etc.?

[David]

The issues of trans and gay rights, racial affirmation, are irrelevant to those fighting for their material survival.

Try telling that to trans and gay people fighting for their material survival.

[Jezza]

Trump wins Arizona (11)

Harris 226-312 Trump

[Jezza]

Popular vote:

Harris = 47.9% (70.8 million votes)
Trump = 50.4% (74.5 million votes)

95% counted

[David]

Will be only the second time since 1988 (i.e. in the last nine elections) that a Republican presidential candidate has won the popular vote.

[What'sinaname]

If you look at popular vote stats over the very long term, I think you'd agree Biden 81 million looks very out of pattern.

[What'sinaname]

The issues of trans and gay rights, racial affirmation, are irrelevant to those fighting for their material survival.

Try telling that to trans and gay people fighting for their material survival.

They're people too you know.

The gubbermint should have been focussing on helping people put food on the table rather than worried about funding sex changes for trans prisoners.

And that's what we've seen. When times are tough people don't give a crap about your pronouns.

[Pies4shaw]

^ People mostly don’t care about your pronouns when times are good, either - because it’s about as important to most people as who comes 23rd in the JJ Liston Trophy.

[stui magpie]

The cost of living and illegal immigration were clearly the two big issues. Both had gone backwards under Biden's watch, Harris was part of that administration and refused to say what she would do differently, so she was already pushing shit uphill on that front. Even introducing Trans issues into the campaign just would have proved to many that the Democrats didn't have their eye on the balls which were important.

Focus on getting elected and fixing the big issues first, then you can dabble in fringe issues if that's your inclination. People are much more likely to be well disposed toward spending on Trans stuff when they're employed, have a roof over their head, food on the table and some disposable income. They still may have zero interest, but at least they won't feel aggrieved about it.

[Magpietothemax]

I shouldn't laugh but every time I read stuff harvested from WSWS, I always think of this:

GEORGE: Yeah. What are you doing with the Daily Worker?
ELAINE: Ned must have left it here.
GEORGE: Your boyfriend reads the Daily Worker? What is he? A communist?
ELAINE: HE reads everything, you know, Ned's very well read.
GEORGE: Maybe he's just "very well RED"?
ELAINE: Communist? Don't you think he probably would have told me?
GEORGE: Well, does he wear bland, drab, olive colored clothing?
ELAINE: Yes, . . . yes he does dress a little drab.
GEORGE: Huh, he's a communist. . . . .

Well, happy to hear that you are reading it, instead of watching Seinfeld.

[What'sinaname]

It's going to be a fun four years. While he's not my cup of tea, I can see why many love him. Populism is an easy sell, and now he has to deliver. Is there a special charter flight to Australia with all those actors, etc.?

I'm sure they'll find solace in the millions of dollars they accepted from Harris $1b war chest for fleeting endorsement.

Once they see Australia's marginal tax rate, they'll realise how happy they are living in the US but with a residence in Bermuda.