Bushfires and fuel reduction

[Morrigu]

Disgraceful!!!
https://www.abc.net.au/4corners/hard-winter/12426966

[pietillidie]

Marvellous. Wasn't there an enquiry underway? What was the outcome?

Almost 3 billion koalas, kangaroos and other animals are estimated to have been killed or displaced in Australia's 'Black Summer' bushfires, according to an updated study trebling the previous estimate of 1 billion.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-28/ ... y/12497976[/quote]

[think positive]

yes Andy Meddick MP, i follow him of facebook and i believe Morrigu knows him

https://andymeddick.com.au/inquiries/ex ... iJwaXyNUJw

[David]

The inquiry has finished, and the theories about arson being a leading cause of last summer’s bushfires have been pretty systematically debunked:

https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episo ... s/12636972

[stui magpie]

And fuel load?

[eddiesmith]

Problem with the arson isn't an issue is they are downplaying the amount of suspicious fires that are lit every summer and last summer was no different.

No it won't feature in the list of largest fires, because the larger fires start in remote country and are left to burn for weeks and weeks.

Fires started by arsonists however are lit in more built up areas and are attacked aggressively from the start as they have far more ability to have devastating impact in a short period of time.

I know of at least 2 serious fires last summer in Victoria started by arsonists, but thankfully the CFA volunteers did a tremendous job stopping them before they did any real damage!

[watt price tully]

The inquiry has finished, and the theories about arson being a leading cause of last summer’s bushfires have been pretty systematically debunked:

https://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/episo ... s/12636972

Correct weight David. The right wing press yes Murdoch, Sky, 2GB, right wing politicians and some on Nicks can now apologise as not 1 of over 30 fires was started by Arson. Lightening was the single biggest cause. Burn offs and in one case a tyre, power lines in a few cases.

I’m waiting for Sky News, George (the Manila club) Christiansen and the liberal nutter to top liberal nutters ( I know: which one) Craig Kelly need to apologise for getting it so wrong and whipping up more hysteria.

The police said pretty quickly arson was not to blame in the Gippsland fires back in January this year.

Of course we do know the CFA can occasionally attract some fascinated by fire who may have mental health issues but that’s another matter.

[eddiesmith]

So basically if 100 fires are started deliberately but only burn 100 hectares in rural-urban interface areas and 2 fires start by lightning and burn 1000 hectares of mostly unoccupied bush, those 2 lightning fires were a far bigger concern than the 100 deliberately lit fires.

Classic ABC logic.

[watt price tully]

[eddiesmith]

[David]

Full report is here, for anyone who wants to have a look at it: https://www.dpc.nsw.gov.au/assets/dpc-n ... nquiry.pdf

Three of the recommendations directly relate to hazard-reduction burning:

Recommendation 19
That Government re-commit to the current, regionally based approach to planning and coordinating hazard reduction activities across all tenures through Bush Fire Management Committees but ensure that it is actually being implemented at a high-level of quality across NSW. Getting it to a high-level of quality requires:
a) implementing the Inquiry’s recommendation about performance auditing of Bush Fire Risk Management Plans
b) prioritising implementation of revised processes for bush fire risk management planning that incorporate new modelling and methods for quantifying risk and the residual risk profile as a result of proposed hazard reduction works
c) ensuring regional priorities for hazard reduction, and how they are determined, are communicated clearly to the community, and their implementation is reported on transparently. This will include being very clear about the objectives of hazard reduction activities and communicating that hazard reduction does not eliminate the risk of fire affecting properties
d) the methodology for assessing and planning for risk reduction becomes an ongoing area of research and the frameworks are formally reviewed every three years.

Recommendation 20
That Government, noting that hazard reduction targeted in proximity to assets is on balance more likely to provide help than hinder, should:
a) support local councils and partner agencies to implement more comprehensive hazard
reduction at a local level around towns/cities, communities and local infrastructure assets, and provide incentives for communities to organise themselves to prioritise and implement local hazard reduction initiatives. This will involve a suite of hazard reduction techniques depending on the landscape including prescribed burning, clearing, mowing, and mechanical treatments, and easy disposal of green waste into processors turning it into bioenergy or biofuels
b) beyond the local level priorities for hazard reduction, prioritise prescribed burning in parts of the landscape where fuel treatment may help reduce probability of fires escalating quickly and where terrain and potential atmospheric interactions are likely to escalate fires into fire-generated thunderstorms. This will likely involve a proactive program of treating ridge tops that are prone to dry lightning where reduced fuels may help reduce speed of spread when the fire first starts, or particular windward or lee-slopes that are susceptible to generating extreme fire behaviour and drive fire towards towns.

Recommendation 21
That, in order to improve understanding of optimal hazard reduction techniques and their application in the landscape:
a) Government extend the recently introduced program of mitigation crews so that hazard reduction activities can be undertaken when conditions are optimal (throughout the week and potentially at night)
b) all fire authorities review prescribed burning techniques and their implementation, and commission further research into optimal prescribed burning regimes and techniques. This should include research to understand critical thresholds that, when breached, may render fuel treatment ineffective (i.e. fuel moisture thresholds), and the short, medium and long-term outcomes of hazard reduction burning regimes
c) Government commission research into a range of other hazard reduction techniques to understand better the cost versus benefit and effectiveness of different practices in various circumstances, including grazing.

And here is the summary of findings related to hazard-reduction burning (from page 156):

Key points
• The NSW Government, largely through works undertaken on national parks, has met its hazard reduction targets from 2011 to 2019, and the area over which hazard reduction activities have been done annually has on average increased since 2011. The previous State-wide targets are no longer current because the end date has passed, and they have not been replaced. However, NPWS and NSW Forestry Corporation continue to work in collaboration with NSW RFS towards State-wide area targets for hazard reduction across the estates they manage.
• While studies of the impacts of previous bush fires indicate that on balance hazard reduction can reduce the rate of spread and intensity/severity of bush fire, there is no guarantee that any particular hazard reduction activity will provide protection from bush fire in every circumstance, especially when fire weather is adverse (i.e. in Severe, Extreme and Catastrophic categories of fire danger) as was experienced on many days during the 2019-20 season. Research also shows that the potential benefits of prescribed burning activities are generally short-lived.
• The degree to which more hazard reduction burning before the 2019-20 fire season, especially broad-scale prescribed burning across the landscape, would have influenced the extent of area burnt or damage caused is not fully understood or quantified.
• However, the latest research does show that hazard reduction is most likely to provide some benefit near specific things that communities want to protect. Accordingly, the regionally based approach to planning and coordinating hazard reduction activities through Bush Fire Management Committees should be refreshed so the objectives are very clear, and to make sure that a risk-based approach is being applied rigorously across the State, informed by the best research on risk reduction.
• A suite of targeted and more strategic hazard reduction activities across all tenures, working from the perimeters of settlements outwards, and involving communities in their design and implementation, should be a feature of future fire management planning and preparation.
• We also need a much better understanding of cost-benefit and effectiveness of different hazard reduction techniques, including the public health costs associated with smoke from prescribed burning.
• Public land managers could do more to become good neighbours.
• While existing approval processes are intended to support hazard reduction by private landowners, more education and community engagement is required on the purpose of the processes and how to use them effectively.

[stui magpie]

Recommendation 20 and 21 about increased hazard reduction, reducing fuel load via controlled burning

Recommendation 25 and 26 about increased adoption of Aboriginal Land management, aka cultural burning.

Thank you linesmen.........

[David]

^ I’ve included further findings above, Stui. I wouldn’t say it’s exactly a vindication of the "bushfires were caused by too much green tape" argument.

[stui magpie]

^

Again, this is NSW.

In regard to the claim that arsonists didn't light any fires, refer to page 29, section 2.1.3

There were also instances of suspected arson during the 2019-20 season, but these were a very small proportion of the area burnt. Strike Force Tronto reported to the Inquiry that there were 63 offences under the Crimes Act 1900 under the category of ‘intentionally cause fire and be reckless to its spread’ from 1 July 2019 to 3 Feb 2020. Fifty-nine of these fires were deliberately lit and, of those, 11 were lit with intention to cause a bush fire.44

So fires were deliberatly lit but, as they were likely close to a populated area they were able to be caught quickly."

[watt price tully]