US election 2020

[Pies4shaw]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /national/

Fivethirtyeight - not, of course, a polling entity but an entity that provides (amongst other things) a meta-analysis of the polling data - updates its information every time new poll results come in. It presently has Biden 10.6% ahead of Slumpy. That's over a 50% increase in Biden's overall polling advantage since 28 September.

Of course, the polls might be prepared (again) by dribbling idiots (that would be a little surprising, given how much money pollsters can make from learning past lessons and getting it less wrong each time) - but Slumpy has never been this far behind Biden and he appears to be falling steadily further behind. Even the pro-crazies Rasmussen has had Biden ahead by 8%, 12% and 5% in its three polls reported since 27 September.

The most useful part of fivethirtyeight's analysis may be that it takes error margins and spread between polls into account to provide a probabilistic assessment of election chances, rather than just the poll numbers. A little over a week ago, fivethirtyeight had Trump with a 20% chance of being re-elected. That is down to 12% (having dropped, yet again, in the course of today). Troublingly for the Republicans, fivethirtyeight's assessment is that the Democrats have a 72% chance of winning control of the Senate and a 96% chance of retaining control of Congress.

With COVID numbers surging again - and most particularly in "swing" States, it will be an interesting fortnight.

If you were inclined to bet, you'd think the only way Slumpy could avoid being dumped out on his arse (a serous concern, since that's the smartest part of him) is if the Republican's reprehensible attempts to stop people voting by mail are effective.

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/i ... cna1243952

A former (and first black) head of the Republican National Committee has just endorsed Biden.

Expect Trump to be carried out of the Oval Office with two badly sprained thumbs from tweeting relentless abuse.

[Pies4shaw]

https://ncdp.columbia.edu/custom-conten ... S-NCDP.pdf

[David]

https://nypost.com/2020/10/22/hunter-ex ... en-a-liar/

Who knows what's true or not here. But it's disheartening that you have to go to dodgy outlets like The New York Post or Fox News to read about it.

[Tannin]

It astonishes me that otherwise intelligent people could, even for one moment, swallow uncorroborated fairy stories originating with known lying scumbags like Giuliani and known fraudster Bannon, and published by the notoriously biased and horribly unreliable Murdoch.

Paying attention to this bullshite is simply serving Trump's corrupt interests. Nothing more and nothing less.

And it's not "disheartening" at all. Reputable, evidence-based platforms look at stories like this - politically motivated, made-up slander stories pushed by known fraudsters - and very properly ignore them - as is their duty.

[Tannin]

Meanwhile, back on Planet Reality, we see two very dumb statements made repeatedly by the right, the extreme right, and the trendier-than-anyone left exposed for what they always were: silly wishful thinking.

1: "Biden is senile". Nope. He has just demonstrated, once again, a clear grasp and a rational, measured approach.

2: "Trump will destroy Biden in the debates". Not even close. The first debate was a disaster for Trump. The second debate he was too scared to even participate in. And Trump was comprehensively beaten in the third one just now. Three debates, three Biden wins. Trump lost. Badly. Case closed.

[Jezza]

^ Delusional nonsense.

Biden is senile. He called Trump "Abraham Lincoln" in the debate, referred to Proud Boys as "Poor Boys" and said on multiple occasions that he's running for the Senate.

The first debate was poor for Trump because he didn't let Biden speak and stutter. The second debate didn't happen because the Debate Commission changed the rules and lying Steve Scully (a former intern for Biden) would have moderated the debate.

In relation to today's debate. Trump won comprehensively. Biden may have just handed him Pennsylvania after revealing his true stance on the oil industry.

[pietillidie]

Biden is senile. He called Trump "Abraham Lincoln" in the debate, referred to Proud Boys as "Poor Boys" and said on multiple occasions that he's running for the Senate.

According to the FT, it was a reference to Captain Coronavirus' laughable narcissistic outburst earlier in the year.

In another instance, Mr Biden had a dig at Mr Trump after he likened himself to Abraham Lincoln, the 16th US president who freed the slaves. “Abraham Lincoln over here is the most racist president we have ever had,” Mr Biden said, nodding towards the president. “This guy has a dog whistle about as big as a fog horn.”

https://www.ft.com/content/b0bfb53d-7e0 ... 6697f43d0f

Are you sure you're not clutching at straws?

[Jezza]

^ I could be wrong, but Biden's tone didn't suggest sarcasm to me.

It seemed like a slip of the tongue from where I was watching.

[Pies4shaw]

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/22/poli ... index.html

Joe Biden did a better job in the final debate on Thursday, according to a CNN Instant Poll of debate watchers. Overall, 53% of voters who watched the debate said that Biden won the matchup, while 39% said that President Donald Trump did.

Viewers once again said that Biden's criticisms of Trump were largely fair (73% said they were fair, 26% unfair), and they split over whether Trump's attacks on Biden were fair (50% said yes, 49% no).

That's a more positive outcome for Trump. In a CNN Instant Poll after the first presidential debate, just 28% said they thought the President had won the debate, and 67% called his criticism of Biden unfair.

All told, though, the debate did not do much to move impressions of either candidate. Favorable views of Biden before the debate stood at 55%, and they held steady at 56% in post-debate interviews. Likewise, Trump's numbers held steady, with 42% saying they had a favorable view of the President in interviews conducted before Thursday's debate and 41% saying the same afterward.

[Pies4shaw]

https://www.vox.com/2020/10/23/21529810 ... iden-trump

[doriswilgus]

^ Delusional nonsense.

Biden is senile. He called Trump "Abraham Lincoln" in the debate, referred to Proud Boys as "Poor Boys" and said on multiple occasions that he's running for the Senate.

The first debate was poor for Trump because he didn't let Biden speak and stutter. The second debate didn't happen because the Debate Commission changed the rules and lying Steve Scully (a former intern for Biden) would have moderated the debate.

In relation to today's debate. Trump won comprehensively. Biden may have just handed him Pennsylvania after revealing his true stance on the oil industry.

Jesus you have been drinking the Trump Kool aid,Jezza.Just about everything you said there is wrong and biased in favour of the orange clown.Biden didn’t call Trump Abraham Lincoln seriously.He said it mockingly because Trump ridiculously compared himself to Lincoln.Big difference.Trump didn’t win the debate comprehensively either.The first polls from CNN showed that a clear majority 53% to 39% thought Biden had won.

[Jezza]

^ I knew someone would cite them, but CNN polls are meaningless.

They said Clinton won the debates hand down as well. Didn't mean anything once election day arrived.

[doriswilgus]

The only time Trump actually told the truth in the debate was when he said that he knew more about wind than anyone else.He certainly is an expert on that subject.

[watt price tully]

The only time Trump actually told the truth in the debate was when he said that he knew more about wind than anyone else.He certainly is an expert on that subject.