US election 2020

[David]

[watt price tully]

^ Sorry David. Journalism 101 corroborate your sources. To say I have the evidence without corroboration is simply a nonsense. It’s not because Trump is a pathological liar but what any decent journalist should do.

I have an email from Donald Trump telling me he only wants the best for the USA and he’s never told a lie in his whole life. I think you should publish it now

[David]

What was the corroboration for the Pentagon Papers?

[Pies4shaw]

https://sebotero.github.io/papers/COVID ... 0_2000.pdf

Abstract
We investigate the effects of large group meetings on the spread of COVID-19 by studying the impact of eighteen Trump campaign rallies. To capture the effects of subsequent contagion within the pertinent communities, our analysis encompasses up to ten post-rally weeks for each event. Our method is based on a collection of regression models, one for each event, that capture the relationships between post-event outcomes and pre-event characteristics, including demographics and the trajectory of COVID-19 cases, in similar counties. We explore a total of 24 procedures for identifying sets of matched counties. For the vast majority of these variants, our estimate of the average treatment effect across the eighteen events implies that they increased subsequent confirmed cases of COVID-19 by more than 250 per 100,000 residents. Extrapolating this figure to the entire sample, we conclude that these eighteen rallies ultimately resulted in more than 30,000 incremental confirmed cases of COVID-19. Applying county- specific post-event death rates, we conclude that the rallies likely led to more than 700 deaths (not necessarily among attendees).

[watt price tully]

What was the corroboration for the Pentagon Papers?

They checked and rechecked their sources far beyond what “deep throat” told them: that is the had to corroborate the information.

Now the problem with answering a basic question like that is that it immediately gives an equivalent value to the email in question by means of juxtaposition. The independent place where the journo / lawyer worked wanted basic corroboration ( as did the Washington post at the time) before publishing. You’re making an assumption fit your narrative which is unsupported by the facts. Facts can be corroborated.

[Tannin]

Exactly right, WPT. David is making a classic false equivalence error. It is the same error as made by news editors thinking that being "fair" and "even-handed" requires that they give 50% equal time to everything, including hopelessly evidence-free self-interested nutcase groups like climate deniers.

[Pies4shaw]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/tr ... n-in-2016/

This is an helpful - and unbiased - explanation of how fivethirtyeight sees the probabilities in the present situation.

[roar]

[watt price tully]

[roar]

Oh, I agree with that. It's the editing (censoring) of articles that don't follow party lines which is disgraceful and all too common.

[Tannin]

^ You articles that don't come up to basic journalistic standards. Get it right.

[roar]

My example had nothing to do with editing due to journalistic standards. He is a Pulitzer Prize winning journalist that was been censored due to writing an article questioning the Biden issues.

Of course, that won't interest you because you seem to believe any approach used to battle Trump is fair, which is exactly the point we are making.

[Pies4shaw]

Current SB market for the 2020 presidential election;

Trumpinator $2.55

O'Rourke $6.50
Harris $9
Biden $13
Warren $17
M.Obama $17
Bernie $21
Pence $26
Gabbard $26
Klobuchar $31
Bloomberg $31
Booker $31
Gillibrand $34
Joe Kennedy the third $41
Shapirio $51
Hitlery $51
Oprah $51
Castro $67
Kayne West $201
Beyonc $301
Oscar de la Hoya $401

Stormy Daniels & Wokko $501

That was on 13 January 2019.

As of now:

Biden $1.52
Trump $2.65

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/po ... 20-2982545

[watt price tully]

In trying to get the women’s vote Trump has said this in the last week:

“I love women, more than I love men

& we’re going to help women by getting their men jobs”

His advisors must be pulling their hair out. I love it.

He’s a bit quiet on “grabbing women by their pussies” recently though. Not sure why. He thinks it’s a winner.

[Sicks Bux]

Current SB market for the 2020 presidential election;

Trumpinator $2.55

O'Rourke $6.50
Harris $9
Biden $13
Warren $17
M.Obama $17
Bernie $21
Pence $26
Gabbard $26
Klobuchar $31
Bloomberg $31
Booker $31
Gillibrand $34
Joe Kennedy the third $41
Shapirio $51
Hitlery $51
Oprah $51
Castro $67
Kayne West $201
Beyonc $301
Oscar de la Hoya $401

Stormy Daniels & Wokko $501

That was on 13 January 2019.

As of now:

Biden $1.52
Trump $2.65

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/po ... 20-2982545

Would've loved it to have been Gabbard or Bernie. I was thinking of putting a heap of cash on Biden the other day because I think he's a certainty to win the popular vote, but I'm wary about Trump's ability to steal it through a combination of: voter suppression, disqualifying postal votes & contesting the result before the conservative Supreme Court.