Nick's Collingwood Bulletin Board

With Port Adelaide being 1 game behind us, would it not be nice if they lost one?
Straight away, this would place us 2 games clear of the next team.
I therefore look at who they play next...

Jun 9 Bulldogs
Jun 15 Cats
Jun 22 Bye
Jul 1 Essendon
Jul 8 Suns
Jul 15 Carlton
Jul 22 Collingwood

Hmm, Cats could fix them up. Otherwise, we play them soon,
we may show them our master class.

Still early days, but

Pies
Lions
Power
Demons
Cats
Dogs
Dockers
Saints
Bombers
Crows
Suns
Tigers
Swans
Blues
Giants
Hawks
Roos
Eagles

I have Pies, Lions and Power as the clear top 3.
Demons, Cats and Dogs fighting for 4th.
Dockers safe for finals but not serious contenders.
Saints, Bombers, Crows and maybe Suns fighting for the last spot in the 8.
Blues, Tigers and Swans having terrible seasons.
The Eagles slightly worse (injuries?) than Roos and Hawks.

Will, of course, change weekly…

Mines:

1. Collingwood
2. Port
3. Lions
4. Melbourne
5. Freo
6. Dogs
7. Cats
8. Saints

9. Crows
10. Essendon
11. Tigers
12. Suns
13. Carlton
14. Swans
15. GWS
16.Hawks
17. North
18. West toast.

The clearly the top 2 atm are Pies and Port.

Just think the jury is still out for the Lions ability to win away especially MCG.

Melbourne should make top 4 so i have them 4th.

The next 3 spots are a raffle but i have a improved and roaring second half of the season i have freo in 5th i think they will make a run for it.
Cats then dogs next. Cats will make it so i have them around 6 or 7.
Rounding out the 8 has to be saints they seam to be a surer bet then Crows and essendon. I think up till saints have had a better season too.
Would not surprise me if essendon or crows do make it in 8th as well.
Then in no mans land are the likes of Suns Tigers Blues and Swans.
Past that are celler dwellers and i guess the up side to that is they get some top end draft picks.
For the spoon its all west coasts.

So finals i have:

Week 1.

QF1 Pies v Dees MCG 98K
QF2 Port v Lions AO

EF 1 Freo v Saints Optus
EF2 Cats v Dogs MCG

Week 2

Semi 1
Dees v Freo/Saints MCG
Semi 2
Lions v Dogs Gabba

Week 3

Prelim 1
Pies v Lions MCG
Prelim 2
Port v Dees AO

Grand Final

Pies v Port MCG

Revisiting this two weeks on (with positional changes from last time in bold):

1 Collingwood 19 4 0 126.4% -
2 Melbourne 18 5 0 131.5% ^2
3 Port Adelaide 18 5 0 117.7% -
4 Brisbane Lions 17 6 0 118.9% v2
5 Geelong 15 8 0 121.7% ^3
6 Western Bulldogs 15 8 0 111.6% v1
7 Adelaide 13 10 0 115.9% v2
8 St Kilda 13 10 0 108.3% ^2

9 Fremantle 13 10 0 104.4% v2
10 Essendon 12 11 0 106.2% v1
11 Gold Coast 11 12 0 99.2% -
12 Richmond 9 13 1 98.7% -
13 Hawthorn 8 15 0 84.8% ^3
14 Carlton 7 15 1 91.1% v1
15 Sydney 7 16 0 94.0% v1
16 GWS 7 16 0 87.7% v1
17 North Melbourne 3 20 0 69.5% -
18 West Coast 1 22 0 53.0% -

Some how i feel Essendon will finish in 6th and cats at 5th.

7. i have saints
8. crows

If port do us a favour tonight and lose we stay top with 1 game in hand and go clear top on points we win against the crows at the mcg next sunday arvo.

Some how i can not see dogs make it this year either freo and suns.

In 2 weeks time its 100% sure collingwood will be minor premiers this year.

Tried this again, factoring in recent results and some teams’ shifting form…

1. Collingwood 20 3 0 132.0% 80
2. Port Adelaide 20 3 0 121.3% 80
3. Melbourne 17 6 0 128.2% 68
4. Brisbane 17 6 0 126.4% 68
5. St Kilda 14 9 0 107.9% 56
6. Geelong 13 9 1 116.3% 54
7. Adelaide 13 10 0 114.6% 52
8. Western Bulldogs 13 10 0 106.5% 52

9. Essendon 12 11 0 106.6% 48
10. GWS 12 11 0 100.3% 48
11. Richmond 11 11 1 100.8% 46
12. Fremantle 10 13 0 96.9% 40
13. Gold Coast 9 14 0 90.2% 36
14. Sydney 7 15 1 101.6% 30
15. Carlton 7 15 1 97.8% 30
16. Hawthorn 6 17 0 77.8% 24
17. North Melbourne 3 20 0 70.3% 12
18. West Coast 1 22 0 50.1% 4

Interesting that it now looks like 12 wins with a good percentage might be enough.

Mines like this currently.

1. Pies
2. Port
3. Lions
4. Saints
5. Dees
6. crows
7. cats
8. essendon

Looking at the previous two ladders, I would prefer to play the Saints rather than the Brians, I would feel more confident about winning.

As long as we do not play Dees week 1 i still think they are just a bit better then us and could undo us.

Playing melbourne in qf1 is my worry.

Lions and Saints we will be ok by the way its at the MCG.

Saints have a dream run home (outside of Brisbane at the Gabba). If they beat Melbourne this week they will be sitting 4th. Therefore top spot becomes important. Round 19 game becomes important, win that and we should finish top as they have the showdown then Cats in Geelong.

Spewing somewhat that Essendon couldn’t finish the job last Saturday night.

Johnno75 wrote:Saints have a dream run home (outside of Brisbane at the Gabba). If they beat Melbourne this week they will be sitting 4th. Therefore top spot becomes important. Round 19 game becomes important, win that and we should finish top as they have the showdown then Cats in Geelong.

Spewing somewhat that Essendon couldn’t finish the job last Saturday night.

They won't beat Melbourne, Richmond, Geelong or Lions... will be lucky to beat Carlton.

Pies
Port
Melb
Lions
Bombers
Cats
Crows
Dogs

Skids wrote:

Johnno75 wrote:Saints have a dream run home (outside of Brisbane at the Gabba). If they beat Melbourne this week they will be sitting 4th. Therefore top spot becomes important. Round 19 game becomes important, win that and we should finish top as they have the showdown then Cats in Geelong.

Spewing somewhat that Essendon couldn’t finish the job last Saturday night.

They won't beat Melbourne, Richmond, Geelong or Lions... will be lucky to beat Carlton.

All that could be true and they'd still likely make the finals. St Kilda are currently on 9 wins and 6 losses, and apart from those five you mention they're playing Gold Coast, North Melbourne and Hawthorn. Win those three and beat Carlton and they finish the season with 13 wins, which is looking like it might be enough. (Their percentage is a little better than the Bulldogs' and Essendon's, too, and far better than any of the teams from 10th down that are in contention.) For whatever it's worth, I've tipped them to beat Richmond too. I don't rate them at all, but I think their draw gets them in.

Compare with Essendon, who everybody is saying have an easy draw and currently sit on 8 wins and 7 losses: they play West Coast and North, but otherwise I have them losing their next two (Adelaide and Geelong), and then they get to face us in the final round. Add to that 50/50 games against the Western Bulldogs, Sydney (in Melbourne) and GWS (in Sydney) and I think 12 wins is probably an optimistic outcome for them.

Everyone has pies as 1 but i feel we will be 2 and port 1 and we play lions in qf2 at the mcg.

Updated:

1. Collingwood 20 3 0 134.8% 80
2. Port Adelaide 18 5 0 114.5% 72
3. Brisbane 17 6 0 130.1% 68
4. Melbourne 16 7 0 127.6% 64
5. Geelong 14 8 1 124.4% 58
6. Western Bulldogs 14 9 0 107.7% 56
7. Essendon 12 11 0 103.7% 48
8. GWS 12 11 0 99.9% 48

9. Carlton 11 11 1 108.0% 46
10. Richmond 11 11 1 100.1% 46
11. Adelaide 11 12 0 113.5% 44
12. St Kilda 11 12 0 100.1% 44
13. Sydney 10 12 1 106.8% 42
14. Gold Coast 9 14 0 90.6% 36
15. Fremantle 9 14 0 90.5% 36
16. Hawthorn 6 17 0 76.3% 24
17. North Melbourne 3 20 0 68.0% 12
18. West Coast 1 21 0 51.3% 4

Interesting that the number of wins needed to make the 8 seemingly continues to shrink. Everyone down to Fremantle is still at the very least a mathematical chance, and some sides that people are already writing off like Adelaide and Sydney may still be in with a shot of making finals deep into the season.