Nick's Collingwood Bulletin Board

AN_Inkling wrote:The question is who do we want?

Kouta (Bontempelli)
Goddard (Scharenberg)
S.Johnson (Lennon)
Dangerfield (Freeman)
Hodge (Salem)

Someone with leg speed who can kick long and straight.

AN_Inkling wrote:The question is who do we want?

Kouta (Bontempelli)
Goddard (Scharenberg)
S.Johnson (Lennon)
Dangerfield (Freeman)
Hodge (Salem)

I think you can be pretty certain that the two players we'll take will come from that list.

Kade K and Aish other possibilties I guess.

Ok I've been no help at all.

I do wonder if the top 5 has a couple of surprises with Bontempelli and Kade K going within it it might alter who we use pick 6 on in order to try and manipulate our chances of getting the other player we want at 10.

Let's say Boyd, Kelly, Scharenberg, Bontempelli and Kade K were top 5 and we felt that Salem suited our needs more than the seemingly higher rated Billings and Aish.

We take Salem with the knowledge that Brisbane might go for Billings and Melbourne Aish we then can go for Lennon or Freeman at pick 10.

stui magpie wrote:

AN_Inkling wrote:The question is who do we want?

Kouta (Bontempelli)
Goddard (Scharenberg)
S.Johnson (Lennon)
Dangerfield (Freeman)
Hodge (Salem)

Someone with leg speed who can kick long and straight.

salem.

AN_Inkling wrote:The question is who do we want?

Kouta (Bontempelli)
Goddard (Scharenberg)
S.Johnson (Lennon)
Dangerfield (Freeman)
Hodge (Salem)

Those 5 in our current team would deliver us as many premierships.
It's just nice to dream for a minute right?

Bontampelli if he's Kouta without the injuries - or just call him Pendles and be done with it

And one of the others, who care's which, and we're looking pretty

- Ben

Great post An_Inkling - based on those comparisons I would take Salem and Bontempelli although I doubt they will be around for pick 10. At 6 then I think we need a Hodge type in the team, tough competitor with addition of speed and the best foot skills in the draft.

6. Scharenberg
10. Lennon

As an indication of how much store we should place in phantom drafts, here is last year's from the Herald Sun, just a couple of days before the draft (where they were actually picked in brackets). You'll see that most of the top picks are pretty close, but after pick 4 the predictions become much less accurate, with Stringer who was tipped to go at 14, going at 5 being among the biggest misses (could Salem be the Stringer of this draft?).

It needs to be noted that the current Phantoms were all completed at least 3 weeks before the draft. Within the final week, it's almost certain as to who the top 3-4 picks will be, at least. Clubs usually don't need to keep these secret as they can't be trumped by anyone else. For this year, so far, not even those are locked down. There is not even a consensus as to who GWS will take with pick 2. We will know this in the last few days before the draft (no need for them to hide it), and the final Phantoms will be more accurate, but at the moment even for the top 10, they are a loose guide at best.

Conclusion: from the Phantoms completed in the last few days before the draft you can pretty much trust picks 1-4, after that it becomes much less certain. So we shouldn't be ruling out guys for picks 6 or 10 just because the Phantoms don't rate 'em.

1. GWS
LACHIE WHITFIELD (1)

2. GWS
JONO O'ROURKE (2)

3. GWS
LACHIE PLOWMAN (3)

4. Melbourne
JIMMY TOUMPAS (4)

5. Western Bulldogs
JACKSON MCRAE (6)

6. Western Bulldogs
TROY MENZEL (11)

7. Port Adelaide
OLLIE WINES (7)

8. Brisbane Lions
KRISTIAN JAKSCH (12)

9. Richmond
NICK VLASTUIN (9)

10. Essendon
JOE DANIHER (father-son) (10)

11. Carlton
SAM MAYES (8)

12. Greater Western Sydney
AIDEN CORR (14)

13. Gold Coast
TAYLOR GARNER (15)

14. GWS
JAKE STRINGER (5)

15. North Melbourne
NATHAN HROVAT (21)

16. Geelong
JOSH SIMPSON (17)

17. Fremantle
TIM O'BRIEN (28)

18. Collingwood
BEN KENNEDY (19)

19. Collingwood
BRODIE GRUNDY (18)

20. Collingwood
JESSE LONERGAN (13)

A few more:

Garlett (not picked) was predicted to go at 25
Jackson Thurlow (16) was not predicted in the top 30
Broomhead (20) was predicted at 27

Quite a handy reminder Inky.

Not sure you can quite be specific about 'Top 4 you'll know', but thereafter ? based upon last year being accurate for the top 4.

Basically GWS gave up their hand as they had 3 top picks and couldn't be trumped. Toumpas was expected to be 2nd pick for much of the preview period but once word got out, it was assumed the Dees went there, rather than Wines as Viney's good mate.

Clearly the Dogs gave little away and consequently we might not know about pick 4 this draft accordingly. Pulled a surprise with Stringer so high last year. Will possibly throw up a curve ball again this year.

Bontempelli to the dogs at pick 4 wouldn't surpise.

Funny thing is when it comes to our pick we may find two players considered top 5 for so long available.

If any 2 out of Billings, Aish or Scharenberg were available which one would you choose?

^Haven't seen enough of any to have a truly informed opinion, but Billings doesn't impress me from anything that I have seen.

Light bodied, goal sneak. Supposedly has neat skills but The AIS vs AFL Europe game I watched didn't highlight that. Still, a true crumber would be invaluable at Cloke/White/Reid's feet given none of our small/mids tend to play that role effectively.

rad wrote:Great post An_Inkling - based on those comparisons I would take Salem and Bontempelli although I doubt they will be around for pick 10. At 6 then I think we need a Hodge type in the team, tough competitor with addition of speed and the best foot skills in the draft.

Yep, I want Salem at 6 now, moreso as time moves slowly towards draft day.

Albert Parker wrote:Quite a handy reminder Inky.

Not sure you can quite be specific about 'Top 4 you'll know', but thereafter ? based upon last year being accurate for the top 4.

Probably right. From my experience the top few seem to be fairly well known before hand. Can be a surprise or two though.

Interesting that 7 of the top 9 predictions were correct, then none of the bottom 10 except for two of ours. Does this say we leak like a sieve? Or that they were just that obvious?

The Phantom was actually quite close. Barring a few misses, they did have the right pool of players, with the order being just a bit out.

If you believe Hine, the Top 10-12 is clear this year, then a gap. So you work with 10 names and slot them. Probably harder to get the next 10 right.

Grundy was potentially a very high pick last year and our need for a ruck stood out I think.