Vic State Election

[Jezza]

I'm located in the electorate of Box Hill. Been a safe Liberal seat since 1992.

Intending to vote Liberal on Saturday, but not sure about the Legislative Council yet.

Box Hill, not such a safe Liberal seat now I gather? Must say I didn't see that coming! What do you think the Federal Libs need to do to change to stop this from happening in the Fed election? Or is it too late?

Box Hill hasn't been a Labor seat since 1992, so it's been 25 years in the making.

It's too late. A removal of a sitting Prime Minister never sits well with the electorate and I think that's the primary reason for this result amongst other issues. I can recall Labor getting thrashed in the 2012 Queensland state election, and I believe the removal of Rudd (who was a Queenslander) contributed to the lopsided result.

The Liberals are suffering an identity crisis and they don't know what they stand for anymore. I think the "moderates" will eventually win the factional wars and the "conservatives" within the party will defect to other parties, most likely to the Australian Conservatives. I don't think these factions can peacefully co-exist anymore within the party.

[stui magpie]

^

The results tend to reflect that the electorate is drifting left, at least on social policy. None of the right wing minor parties got much of the vote, so that suggests to me that the Libs can't afford to let the conservative faction drag them right socially

[watt price tully]

^ correct weight. The Libs have gone so far to the right due to the Mad Misogynist Monk, Eric colonel Klink Abetz, The idiots in QLD: Dutton, the fat fella who will m iss out on preselection (name escapes me ? Kelly), who are a minority. Their influence on the Libs is so far removed from the centre / iddle ground it's ridiculuous. Look at how they mishandled Turnbulls removal.

Andrews was meat & 3 vegetables: building, health, education, trnasport, and infrastructure while keeping the budget in surplus - Victoria being the best performed state.

Compare that to the issues in the other post:

Fear and just supid things like closing a safe injection room when the evidence is already in that it saves lives.

Safe schools which is simply an anti bullying programme for LGBTQI students not the fear & loathing forwaded by the crazies on the right and promoted / amplified by Murdoch. Time for me to get Fox TX now

[Culprit]

Sco Mo and Friedenturd are heading to Victoria to discuss the loss. This was fought on State based issues though?

[Culprit]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/vict ... 50i9e.html


Victoria state election result: Labor takes back Northcote from the Greens

I am loving these Victories more than knocking off the LNP.

[Tannin]

What do you think the Federal Libs need to do to change to stop this from happening in the Fed election? Or is it too late?

Military coup is about the only option left to them now.

And Peter Dutton is just the man to do it.

[Tannin]

It's too late. A removal of a sitting Prime Minister never sits well with the electorate and I think that's the primary reason for this result amongst other issues. I can recall Labor getting thrashed in the 2012 Queensland state election, and I believe the removal of Rudd (who was a Queenslander) contributed to the lopsided result.

The Liberals are suffering an identity crisis and they don't know what they stand for anymore. I think the "moderates" will eventually win the factional wars and the "conservatives" within the party will defect to other parties, most likely to the Australian Conservatives. I don't think these factions can peacefully co-exist anymore within the party.

I don't agree with your wishful thinking re removal of a sitting Prime Minister, and neither do the facts. The replacement of the dreadful Abbott with the (then) well-liked Trumble saved their bacon last time; it turned a right royal thumping into a narrow victory.

Replacent of Trumble (who was by this time minus any credibility) with the odious fast talker Scummo, however, was never going to wash. And if they had put Dutton in it would have been a truly spectacular failure, a genuine epic mistake. Their one and only chance was the Asbestosis Queen. She would have had a genuine chance against Shorten. No guarantee, but a good 50/50 chance. Thankfully, they were too stupid to see that.

Bishop will lead them next year in opposition, you would think. They haven't got anybody else.

Your belief that they cannot go on with the party so divided, however, makes a great deal of sense to me. Two parties: hard right and centre right. I agree.

[David]

Worth following this thread for updates on the legislative council. Wouldn't necessarily take the current ABC projections as gospel, as they haven't factored in the below-the-line votes (which were apparently as high as 10% in some areas):

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/1 ... -live.html

[think positive]

sounds as confusing as the points for the draft

[K]

sounds as confusing as the points for the draft

A certain party needs a 20% FS discount.

[thesoretoothsayer]

Bayswater seems to be becoming a safe Liberal seat.
https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/ElectoralBou ... ofile.html
Labor folk might want to ask themselves how a place full of factory workers ends up voting for the Tories....

Bayswater on the knife's edge (a handful of votes in it).
Very unexpected. 4.5% swing against a high-profile local candidate.
Good indication of just how bad things have gone for the Libs.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/v ... uide/bays/

[Wokko]

When half the population pays 0 net taxes and so many rely on Government handouts to survive it's no surprise that the party of handouts and gibsmedat wins in a landslide.

"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the majority discovers it can vote itself largess out of the public treasury. After that, the majority always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits with the result the democracy collapses because of the loose fiscal policy ensuing, always to be followed by a dictatorship, then a monarchy."

[David]

On that logic, shouldn't Labor win everywhere, every time?

The answer I think is both less sinister and considerably more mundane: people tend to vote according to perceived self-interest. And a big part of self-interest ultimately resides in, once the taxes and bills have been paid and essential costs of living taken care of, what your bank balance is going to be short-term, medium-term and long-term. Some of that may reside in loftier ideas of the betterment of the nation (something all parties make claims about), but in the end that's still only a conduit to how well-off you're going to be. So long as there are competing interests in society, and competing claims as to how best to serve those interests, I think multiparty democracy isn't in great danger.

[watt price tully]

Worth following this thread for updates on the legislative council. Wouldn't necessarily take the current ABC projections as gospel, as they haven't factored in the below-the-line votes (which were apparently as high as 10% in some areas):

https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2018/1 ... -live.html

ABC are projections are predictions. The ABC do not state them as facts. Antony Green is good friends with the unethical horse-whisperer, they've known each other for years.

Hopefully the Gov't will pass legislation to render his sort of conniving the be useless in the future such that pressure groups do not get elected with 7 and a half votes

[thesoretoothsayer]

When half the population pays 0 net taxes and so many rely on Government handouts to survive it's no surprise that the party of handouts and gibsmedat wins in a landslide.

I get where you're coming from.

However, I feel that one reason the Andrews govt. won wasn't handouts or gimmicks but that it pledged money for much needed infrastructure projects.
My concern is that 26 billion (will blow out to 40+ billion?) is a lot of money and, if revenues drop, we could all end up in a big Cain/Kirner black hole.

p.s. Gibsmedat - cool word, hadn't heard it before.