Coronavirus 3 - Al Pacino's turn to mumble

[Dave The Man]

Interesting piece on the news tonight about Japan and the Olympics.

Japan is only 14% fully vaccinated and are having 1500 cases per day of the Delta variant, but will be hosting the Olympics and determined to live with the virus rather than try to eliminate it.

People (mainly Victorians) are shrieking at NSW to do a hard Victorian style lockdown of the whole state over 30 daily cases and Victoria cancels the Formula 1 GP and Moto GP due in November .

Very different risk appetites.

The Olympics should NOT be going ahead.

Way too many Risks they are taking.

[stui magpie]

^

But that's their decision to make on a risk reward basis. They clearly don't agree that they're taking too many risks.

All the Australian athletes will have been vaccinated, that may not be the same for some other countries so those participants will really be putting it on the line, particularly as the Delta variant appears to not only be a lot more infectious, but it adversely impacts younger people much more than the original. 40% of the people hospitalised by the Delta strain in NSW are under 55, 8 of them under 35.

[Dave The Man]

^

But that's their decision to make on a risk reward basis. They clearly don't agree that they're taking too many risks.

All the Australian athletes will have been vaccinated, that may not be the same for some other countries so those participants will really be putting it on the line, particularly as the Delta variant appears to not only be a lot more infectious, but it adversely impacts younger people much more than the original. 40% of the people hospitalised by the Delta strain in NSW are under 55, 8 of them under 35.

Guess more Young People being affected also could be they not been Vaccinated yet?

[Lazza]

Just like at the Olympics during the Afghanistan war, it should be left to individual athletes to make their own decisions without interference from anybody else.

[Dave The Man]

Just like at the Olympics during the Afghanistan war, it should be left to individual athletes to make their own decisions without interference from anybody else.

They don't have to go IF they don't want to or Feel Safe too

[swoop42]

I was thinking the other day how the cavalier attitude of some current and former world leaders in handling this pandemic would have been widely different if it was children most at risk of dying from COVID.

Thankfully we have escaped that reality so far but what the future holds with these different strains arising no one knows.

[Lazza]

Just like at the Olympics during the Afghanistan war, it should be left to individual athletes to make their own decisions without interference from anybody else.

They don't have to go IF they don't want to or Feel Safe too

Yeah agree DTM. To me it’s all about them making an informed choice whether to attend or not and respecting their choice, albeit reluctantly like I did when I heard that Phill Simmons pulled out of the Aussie basketball team.

[npalm]

^^ Japan is not blithely proceeding with the Olympics without a care. It was uncertain whether they would proceed or not. In one recent poll 80% of the population wanted them cancelled or postponed.
Tokyo is starting it's 4th state of emergency this year which will extend until the end of the Olympics.

Overall Japan has had a less restrictive stance than Australia. They don't lockdown as hard as we do. So yes, they have a somewhat stronger risk appetite than us
As a consequence, they have had 15,000 covid deaths, most of which have been this year. They are also having vaccine supply problems so this death rate will possibly continue for the rest of the year.

If we want to be less risk averse like Japan, then that means we have to accept more deaths. That's the simple equation. Less restrictions, less lockdowns means more deaths.

What is an acceptable covid death rate for the next 12 months? Something like the typical annual influenza death rate? Something like the road toll?

What if the epidemiologists said that a less restrictive strategy (no more lockdowns) could lead to a death rate somewhere between 1000 and 5,000 Australians over the next 12 months would you take that?

[Pies4shaw]

In Victoria, 0 new local cases and no new cases acquired overseas.
- 27,420 test results were received.

There are 21 active cases.

[Pies4shaw]

In NSW, 38 new community cases. 18 entirely in isolation, 9 partly in isolation and 11 in the community during their infectious period.

[KenH]

Looks like NSW will be cut off and be a no go zone for all other States.

Hope for everyone sakes that NSW can get this under control and it is not too late!

[Dave The Man]

I was thinking the other day how the cavalier attitude of some current and former world leaders in handling this pandemic would have been widely different if it was children most at risk of dying from COVID.

Thankfully we have escaped that reality so far but what the future holds with these different strains arising no one knows.

It be Total Lockdown IF actually Effected them.

[Dave The Man]

Looks like NSW will be cut off and be a no go zone for all other States.

Hope for everyone sakes that NSW can get this under control and it is not too late!

Would help that Glady did what other States Did to Stop the Lockdown then not just put in a Lockdown that not really a Lockdown.

They be in Lockdown for Months

[stui magpie]

If we want to be less risk averse like Japan, then that means we have to accept more deaths. That's the simple equation. Less restrictions, less lockdowns means more deaths.

What is an acceptable covid death rate for the next 12 months? Something like the typical annual influenza death rate? Something like the road toll?

Once we reach a certain point with vaccination, we will open up, there will be no moire Covid lockdowns and people will die. on average 1,000 people die every year of the flu in Australia. We do vaccinations but don't lock down, we live with it.

What if the epidemiologists said that a less restrictive strategy (no more lockdowns) could lead to a death rate somewhere between 1000 and 5,000 Australians over the next 12 months would you take that?

Yeah, I would. More than 3000 people each year commit suicide in Australia, 2,500 of them men. More lockdowns will cause more of that and more family violence.

I'd expect we should be looking at 1000-3000 deaths each year from Covid for the foreseeable future.

[Pies4shaw]

Today's 38 was the highest number of new community cases per day in NSW since 15 April 2020. The report that day is a "blip", so I suspect it involved a correction of earlier figures.

Anyway, 39 cases (including the one in HQ) is well under the NSW peak of 212 reported on 28 March 2020. For comparison, the Victorian peak of 700 was reported on 5 August 2020. The most recent occasion on which Victoria recorded 39 cases was on 15 September 2020, on the way out of the second lockdown.

This is a critical period for NSW (and the rest of us, since if they fail, so do we all) - with the less infectious original version of the virus, when Victoria hit 40 cases a day on the way up, it was 7 times that in less than a fortnight.