Australian federal election 2022

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Lazza
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Post by Lazza »

I’m notoriously wrong when predicting Australian elections. I have got the last three wrong. So with nothing to lose here I go sticking my long neck out again. I pick the ALP to win on Saturday by a very slim margin.
Don't confuse your current path with your final destination. Just because it's dark and stormy now doesn't meant that you aren't headed for glorious sunshine!
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Cam
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Post by Cam »

Lazza wrote:I’m notoriously wrong when predicting Australian elections. I have got the last three wrong. So with nothing to lose here I go sticking my long neck out again. I pick the ALP to win on Saturday by a very slim margin.
It will be an absolute smashing. Australians have got nothing for their tax dollars for 10 years.
Get back on top.
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David
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Post by David »

The smart money does seem to be on a Labor majority now, yes. Which checks out, as I put money on the result being a hung parliament. :x :P
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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Lazza
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Post by Lazza »

DP
Last edited by Lazza on Wed May 18, 2022 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
Don't confuse your current path with your final destination. Just because it's dark and stormy now doesn't meant that you aren't headed for glorious sunshine!
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David
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Post by David »

Interesting. Two polls in the last 24 hours have Labor only up 51-49, which is the closest it's been for months. Could be headed for a close result after all …
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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David
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Post by David »

Apologies Stui, this got lost in the thread split:
stui magpie wrote:Back to the election, it's also more complicated than it looks.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/fede ... 5am44.html

the ALP's primary vote is slipping back but there's a high % of people who don't want either SloMo or Albo. This will all come down to preferences in key seats.
"Every time we witness an injustice and do not act, we train our character to be passive in its presence." – Julian Assange
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roar
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Post by roar »

With the RBA determined to create a recession, I think the ALP are going to win this election, and then be in deep shit from pretty much the start of their reign.
kill for collingwood!
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Pies4shaw
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Post by Pies4shaw »

^ They actually went soft on the recent interest rate increase, presumably because they didn't want to loook "political" by upping rates to the extent they should have been just before the election.
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roar
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Post by roar »

^ Perhaps, but they are still going to cause economic hardship, possibly recession, by believing - erroneously, in my mind - that current inflation can, and should, be stifled by monetary policy. And Labor will inherit the mess.
kill for collingwood!
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stui magpie
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Post by stui magpie »

^

I've read opinion that who ever wins this election is likely to lose the next one.
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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roar
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Post by roar »

^ Probably depends on the severity of economic downturn but to be ousted after one term Labor's performance would have to be pretty bad. According to polls the coalition is still leading the primary vote so maybe they really are that bad.
kill for collingwood!
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Pies4shaw
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Post by Pies4shaw »

roar wrote:^ Perhaps, but they are still going to cause economic hardship, possibly recession, by believing - erroneously, in my mind - that current inflation can, and should, be stifled by monetary policy. And Labor will inherit the mess.
Yes, I wasn't disagreeing. Rather, the point I was making is that in place of going early and hard, they've gone late and soft - that will, no doubt, create a deeper trough eventually.
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stui magpie
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Post by stui magpie »

roar wrote:^ Probably depends on the severity of economic downturn but to be ousted after one term Labor's performance would have to be pretty bad. According to polls the coalition is still leading the primary vote so maybe they really are that bad.
Yeah, but both of the primary votes are real low, more people don't like either of them which makes it hard to know what they'll do on polling day.

Odds would still be on Labor after preferences but it could be very tight.
Every dead body on Mt Everest was once a highly motivated person, so maybe just calm the **** down.
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Dark Beanie
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Post by Dark Beanie »

Thank goodness no more elections ads on TV and radio after tonight.
If you are foolish enough to be contented, don't show it, but just grumble with the rest. - Jerome K Jerome
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Dave The Man
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Post by Dave The Man »

Dark Beanie wrote:Thank goodness no more elections ads on TV and radio after tonight.
Thanks Christ for that.

Driving Me Mad espically the Coalition Ad about the Bucket
I am Da Man
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