Nick's Collingwood Bulletin Board

magpieazza wrote:Im just trying to make sense of how the value of Grundy is worked out, IF he gets traded.

So without taking into account his wages, what would Grundy be worth trade wise??

I would say it definitely is more than a first round pick surely.
2 x first round picks ??? Yes IMHO.

So if a club taking on Grundy plus his full wages would take his worth down..... to a first rounder give or take.

Now if Collingwood take on a couple hundred grand of his wages then we should be expecting a full compensation of couple first rounders.

What Im thinking is the selling club either gets their picks for what the player is worth THEN pays the surplus amount of wages compared to what other players of similar quality gets.
Obviously Grundy has been seen as getting overs so what do you say is his true worth??? maybe a couple hundred grand less than what he is getting now.

On the other hand if we dont pay his extra wages then that is where we dont get the 2 first round picks.

This is why trading Treloar comes off as a complete shite show, we lose him for bugger all trade value coming back at us PLUS we part pay his wages...we definitely were desperate to sell and everyone knew. However in this Grundy scenario we should be expecting fair compo..bc we arent desperate to sell.

Thoughts?? or am I way off??

BTW I want Grundy to stay along with JDG

If we get Taranto for some sort of trade for picks and pick up McStay on a free then that would be successful for me.

Thing is we all blame the contract, but fact is without the contract he’d be a non restricted free agent and we’d get a late first for him with nothing on the books.

No one is trading 2 firsts for him, like it or not we’re going to be stuck with 200-300k on our books, ‘if’ someone was willing to take on his contract I would give him away, would clear 1 million dollars instantly and give a reset if you like on the disastrous deals we handed out under Ned (Look Mama, no hands) Guy.

Perhaps surprisingly (or perhaps not to some) Cameron's average time on ground this season is 5.8% less than last year when he was understudy to Grundy.

I naively thought it might have been more given the circumstances and coupled with his 19 games so far this season (beating last years 18 games) it was understandable he was perhaps showing signs of tiring.

Of course we've had a change of coach since last season and how much that is a factor is hard to gauge when it comes to TOG.

Cameron 2021 vs Cameron 2022

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... 021&fid2=S

Grundy 2021 vs Cameron 2022

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... 021&fid2=S

Grundy 2019 vs Grundy 2021

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... fopt2=2021

Gawn 2021 vs Grundy 2021

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... fopt2=2021

Jackson 2022 vs Grundy 2015 roughly same age

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... 1=O&fid2=O

Good to see no one is totally overreacting to these rumours

Grundy stated his preference is to stay a Pie. Or eat a pie, easy to misinterpret these things.

If the Dees want Grundy then straight swap for Petracca.
Salaries would be almost identical.

TO THOSE NAIVE TO WARM TO A GRUNDY TRADE TOO DEEEES, imagine this nightmare scenario, he goes to them, joins Gawn in dynamic duo, they make next yrs GF, so do we, Melb v Coll. Cox, Cameron v the two Superstars in ruck. Close game, anyones, Oliver dashes out of centre, 2 mins to go, passes to Grundy, who calmly seals the slender lead they have, with a goal, hes kicked two others earlier. Siren goes, he dances happily with Hillbilly Gawn, while our guys look on, sadly. Chew that one over if you will.

swoop42 wrote:Perhaps surprisingly (or perhaps not to some) Cameron's average time on ground this season is 5.8% less than last year when he was understudy to Grundy.

I naively thought it might have been more given the circumstances and coupled with his 19 games so far this season (beating last years 18 games) it was understandable he was perhaps showing signs of tiring.

Of course we've had a change of coach since last season and how much that is a factor is hard to gauge when it comes to TOG.

Cameron 2021 vs Cameron 2022

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... 021&fid2=S

Grundy 2021 vs Cameron 2022

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... 021&fid2=S

Grundy 2019 vs Grundy 2021

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... fopt2=2021

Gawn 2021 vs Grundy 2021

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... fopt2=2021

Jackson 2022 vs Grundy 2015 roughly same age

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_ ... 1=O&fid2=O

Make no mistake Swoop. When Collingwood have been in trouble, IE Gold Coast ,Adelaide Port,They sent COX into the ruck and it was his ruck work that saved Collingwood. At present,I rate him as our No 1 Ruckman while Grundy is out. We cannot possibly fathom getting rid of Grundy. It makes no sense at all.

Grundy wasn’t happy under the previous coaches, “talking around corners” to encourage a change etc. We haven’t really seen how he’ll go with Fly, and when he was playing earlier this year it was a steep learning curve for the whole team not just Grundy, hence the losses. I’d love to see him playing now, we’d get a better idea. There was also a rumour there was a disconnect between Grundy and the mids when playing, but I think that’s rubbish. End of the day, I’d rather him playing for us right now than not

When you look at where a players future lies, I always look at the coaches game plan, philosophies and methodology as to what that player does or doesn’t bring to the table.
So here is what we know as fact under the McRae / Leppitsch coached teams - At Richmond, both were key strategists that played important roles in securing three flags without Richmond having ever been strong at centre clearances. In all their flags, they were ranked something like bottom qtr for centre clearance numbers. Winning clearances was never a key part of an overall strategy that served them so well ( albeit you could start an extra in the backline back then but so could the opposition )
Fast forward to today and both coaches have seemingly developed a similar game plan that also doesn’t require the reliance of winning clearances in order to win 12 straight without the up until recently, best ruckman in the comp.

Point being, if I’m McRae, I’m saying of course we “ want “ Grundy cause he’s our best ruckman but the real question remains just how much do they want him when you look at what they’ve achieved without him.
You could argue we’ve been lucky with so many close wins but take the result out and we still consistently manage this 80 point average scoreline that is incredibly efficient for a team that wins so few clearances ( as per the Richmond flags ) I don’t see that changing because the sample size is now big enough to say this is what Collingwood is likely to produce most weeks on the scoreboard without Grundy ( Its also why bringing in a free agent like McStay as a defender makes sense to me )
I will back the club to make the right call and it is the clubs call because he’s under contract but that doesn’t mean you can’t have mature conversations in the interim. If the club receives an offer that ultimately suits all three parties and the club believe they are winners from the deal, then so be it.
I’m not saying Grundy isn’t an incredibly talented generational ruckman but what I am saying is, there’s enough evidence right now to suggest we could further improve our on field performances by filling holes elsewhere, rather than retaining him on his current contract. Imagine this team with one extra gut busting skilful two way runner in the mix every week.
Conversely, if the club and Grundy don’t like anything on offer, then he stays and comes back in 2023 as an improvement on our current ruck stocks.

Piesnchess wrote:TO THOSE NAIVE TO WARM TO A GRUNDY TRADE TOO DEEEES, imagine this nightmare scenario, he goes to them, joins Gawn in dynamic duo, they make next yrs GF, so do we, Melb v Coll. Cox, Cameron v the two Superstars in ruck. Close game, anyones, Oliver dashes out of centre, 2 mins to go, passes to Grundy, who calmly seals the slender lead they have, with a goal, hes kicked two others earlier. Siren goes, he dances happily with Hillbilly Gawn, while our guys look on, sadly. Chew that one over if you will.

I don't want to loose Grundy from Collingwood, but I've now got the feeling that to enable other pieces to fall into the Collingwood picture (i.e. DeGoey staying, Tim Taranto, Tanner Bruhn, Daniel McStay & Bobby Hill joining the team) then Collingwood has to get the salary cap room of moving Grundy on to someone else. I can understand that this may have been Graeme Wright's "Sophie's Choice" moment.
The above nightmare scenario raised by Piesnchess is indeed a frightening thought, however a more optimistic scenario might be;
Collingwood facing Melbourne in the 2023 Grand Final has become the stuff of dreams after both teams have dominated all other comers during the 2023 season and being the past two premiership winning teams. Collingwood has continued to dominate the Demons in the home and away games with solid victories during the 2023 season led by 2023 Brownlow medalist Tim Taranto getting 3 Brownlow votes in each of the games against Melbourne. After an incredibly tight high standard game where the midfield battle has raged all day between Melbourne's Grundy, Petracca, Oliver, Brayshaw and Viney vs Collingwoods Cox, DeGoey, Taranto, Pendelbury, Crisp and Adams there is two minutes remaining with scores level after Bobby Hill burnt the Demon's defenders off with a blistering burst of pace, to pounce on a contested ball and run into an open goal to bring Collingwood to within 5 points behind the Demons. At the center bounce to restart the last two minutes of play Grundy taps the ball to his own feet and a subsequent contest results in another ball-up whilst wasting vital seconds. The subsequent rucking contest has Grundy again tap the ball to his feet but Adams forces the ball forward only to see the combination of Oliver and Petracca get the ball to a forward running Viney. Viney kicks long into the Melbourne forward 50 towards a leading Max Gawn only to see Daniel McStay execute the perfect spoil by punching the ball from Gawn's grasp in-field where Pendlebury gathers, baulks through heavy traffic before short passing to Nick Daicos on the back flank who switches play to his brother Josh running through the center of the ground with a sizzling 50 meter pass that Josh doesn't have to break stride before marking and running his full measure of 15 meters before kicking the goal that gives Collingwood a 1 point lead with 30 seconds left on the clock. With mayhem breaking out in the crowd, the Collingwood chant at it's loudest the ball is bounced in the middle and Grundy taps it to his own feet for another contested ball wasting another 15 seconds and the umpire calls for another ball-up which Grundy again taps to his own feet only to see another contest develop which wastes another 15 seconds at which time the siren sounds to give Collingwood back-to-back premierships. Tanner Bruhn is awarded the Norm Smith medal having played a blinder of a game on the wing for Collingwood.
Ahh, the stuff of dreams!

I think pies2016 is on to something
I think the extension from that is the following

With everything new in football it takes time to figure out a counter measure
Pagans paddock no ruckman at Richmond electric hand balling from the dogs the list goes on

Grundy is the same
It took teams about 18 months to figure out he has a tap radius of 3 feet
Once they figured that out he was simple to negate
Teams sweat on this and take advantage of it
Around the ground they don’t worry about him
He isn’t a good mark over head nor is he a noted goal kicker
Yes he’s athletic and a super tank and good below his knees but none of those assets win you premierships
Gawn may be a lesser ruck man and not have the same tank or good below his knees but he kicks goals and takes loads of marks both forward and back and if memory serves me right didn't he kick 5 or 6 goals in a PF to drag his side over the line ?

I said when we traded Treloar to the Western Bulldogs that we've just handed the 2021 premiership cup to the Western Bulldogs (I was wrong). Now if we trade Grundy to Melbourne I feel Melbourne will be unstoppable next year. Although our rucks will be ok next year, how do you stop a combination of Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy? It's going to be very tough. However I assume if we get Taranto as compensation for Grundy and keep De Goey, we're going to have a very powerful midfield. Does that compensate for the loss of Grundy? I can't answer that.

I've always thought the advantage Grundy offers the team is that he is more than just a very good ruckman because of his agility and skill set he provides an additional midfielder role more so than most other ruckmen which is an invaluable asset to have. He has the ability to do a massive amount of grunt work around the ground and kicks goals whilst playing on the ball, several that have won games for Collingwood including this year against Essendon on ANZAC day.
However, what we have seen, and is shown by a lot of clubs, is that whilst it is nice to have a dominant ruckman its not a necessity to have one if your other team components can compensate or at least break even. I think the combination of Cameron & Cox has broken even in the ruck this year at Collingwood and so the problem of shoring up our midfield becomes more of a priority than holding Grundy. It would be nice to do both but the salary cap is a limiting factor as per it's designed to do.
What I can't understand is the media expectation that Collingwood will trade Grundy & pay a significant part of his salary to play for our opposition. I don't see that as being something we will need to do since there is a demand for Brody by clubs who don't have an elite ruck option (even Melbourne want him and they have Gawn) so Collingwood should stick to their guns and only trade Grundy if they are able to unload his total salary and get sufficient compensation in return to justify why we are giving away such a good player. e.g. Taranto and Bruhn from GWS either via direct swaps or on-trading of draft picks from other clubs. Given that we only save $700K in cap fees if we keep paying up to $300K to Grundy then I don't see that reducing the cap pressure enough to make such a deal worthwhile especially if its true that Daniel McStay is joining for $600K for 5 years?
I trust that Graham Wright is smart enough to work out what's a fair and sustainable deal for Collingwood. However if its true that Collingwood is already paying Treloar $300K for the next 3 years and then we have to pay Grundy another $300K for another 5 years to play for someone else that total of $600K reduction in salary cap is a disaster that would hold the club back from optimum performance for years. There has been lots of talk about how payments to both Treloar and Grundy were front end loaded so the strain on Collingwoods salary cap caused by these two was much more reduced by the end of this year. Maybe the media is missing those points! It would be good to get some confirmation about the exact status of payments to Grundy and Treloar but that is unlikely to happen and hence we only hear rumours spread by journalists who are at best guessing and rarely have all the correct facts about what players are actually being paid.
I believe the idea to trade Trelaor to save on salary cap strain was originally planned to have a trade with the Suns for their first pick in the draft that would have given us Matt Rowell and got all of Treloar's salary off our books. That would have been a great deal and with Treloar's wife moving to the Gold Coast to play netball that seemed like a deal made in heaven. However that fell apart when Adam Treloar dug his heals in about moving to the Gold Coast and we ended up having a firesale that netted us less than what we should have got for Treloar. I hope that the idea of trading Grundy to GWS doesn't backfire in the same way!

MatthewBoydFanClub wrote:I said when we traded Treloar to the Western Bulldogs that we've just handed the 2021 premiership cup to the Western Bulldogs (I was wrong). Now if we trade Grundy to Melbourne I feel Melbourne will be unstoppable next year. Although our rucks will be ok next year, how do you stop a combination of Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy? It's going to be very tough. However I assume if we get Taranto as compensation for Grundy and keep De Goey, we're going to have a very powerful midfield. Does that compensate for the loss of Grundy? I can't answer that.

I think that’s what it all comes down to. It’s a robbing Peter to pay Paul scenario and while there’s nothing wrong with us all throwing our thoughts around, the club is privy to a lot more info than what will ever know.
I sense the desire to keep DeGoey ( history aside ) is stronger than the desire to keep Grundy. The good news is that it’s no fire sale this time around, so the club doesn’t have to accept anything for Grundy that they believe would make us weaker on game day.
I can see a possible scenario where we keep DeGoey, pick up an additional hard running quality mid fielder as a big trade and secure McStay as a free agent KPD at the expense of Grundy leaving. We would also very likely retain our first round selection under this outcome. It’s up to Nicksters to decide if they think that makes us better in 2023 or not. As an aside, I feel we would still need another mature age ruckman on our list and it shouldn’t be to difficult to add a ready made ruck who comes to us as either a late pick or a rookie selection. This solution to a third ruck option ( I’m taking Begg out of this conversation in the short term ) would also minimally impact both our draft strategy and salary cap .
It’s either Peter or Paul. Pick your poison

Why would a quality All Australian big man ( who are hard to find ) NOT be worth 2 x first round picks??
Obviously disregarding his wages what would he be worth??
Taking away his wage demands will make it clearer and it makes it easier to determine and define a value.